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  2. NCAAF Picks
  3. North Texas Eagles vs Navy Midshipmen
Sat 3:30 PM ET
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North Texas
Eagles49
3-2
versus
Navy Midshipmen logo
Navy
Midshipmen39
2-4
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Team1234T
North Texas Eagles141414749
Navy Midshipmen31415739
NCAAF · North Texas Eagles at Navy Midshipmen

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North Texas Eagles vs Navy Midshipmen Prediction, Odds and Best Bet for October 24, 2026

Game time: October 24, 2026 at 3:30 PM ET

Venue: Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium — Annapolis, MD

Article updated Oct 22, 1:23 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

North Texas will beat Navy 35-31, with its second-ranked passing offense offering the strongest route past the Midshipmen’s stout run defense. Navy’s home winning streak and productive rushing attack make this a low-confidence forecast. North Texas -2.5 (-111) is tempting, but the supplied spread and 63.5 total offer no compelling betting edge. The official recommendation is Pass.

North Texas Eagles vs Navy Midshipmen prediction and best bet

North Texas gets the nod because its offensive strength gives it an alternative to challenging Navy’s best defensive attribute. The visitors rank second nationally in passing offense, while Navy ranks eighth in rushing yards allowed per carry. That matchup favors building the forecast around North Texas quarterback Tayven Jackson.

The distinction between picking a winner and backing a spread matters here. Navy’s sustained home success and dangerous ground game leave little room for certainty about the winning margin. North Texas is the selection in a close game, but the best betting decision is Pass.

The matchup listing uses North Texas Eagles; both schools’ official previews identify North Texas as the Mean Green. This preview concerns their October 24 meeting in the 2026 college football season.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Game time: Saturday, October 24, 2026, at 3:30 p.m. ET.

Venue: Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Annapolis, Maryland. Navy is celebrating Homecoming.

Broadcast: CBS Sports Network.

Records and standings: North Texas is 4-2 overall and 2-0 in the American, listed second in the conference in Navy’s October 19 preview. Navy is 2-4 overall and 1-3 in conference play.

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

SportsJaw spread and moneyline: North Texas -2.5 (-111) and -130; Navy +2.5 (-109) and +110.

SportsJaw total: Over 63.5 (-110), Under 63.5 (-110).

North Texas Eagles outlook

North Texas enters after a bye following its 50-10 victory over Charlotte on October 10. Its six-game offensive production is substantial: 347.0 passing yards per game, 533.8 total yards per game and 42.2 points per game. Those figures rank second, third and fifth nationally, respectively.

Jackson averages 311.3 passing yards and 321.8 total-offense yards per game. Receiver Justin Stevenson has 33 catches for 453 yards and five touchdowns. Their production makes the passing game the most persuasive reason to favor the visitors, although those numbers alone say little about Navy’s pass coverage.

Running back Jahiem White supplies balance with 687 rushing yards and nine touchdowns on 96 carries, averaging 7.2 yards per attempt. Navy presents a demanding test for that efficiency. On the other side of the ball, defensive tackle Nolan Clark is a relevant player against the option: coach Neal Brown praised his handling of double teams, preparation and lateral movement.

Navy Midshipmen outlook

Navy’s record hides how narrow its recent margins have been. The Midshipmen have played five consecutive one-score games, going 1-4, with a 38-34 loss at UTSA their latest result. At home, they have won eight straight dating to 2025 and are 12-1 since 2024.

The offense ranks fourth nationally with 298.5 rushing yards per game. Quarterback Jackson Gutierrez contributes 107.3 rushing yards per game and has eight rushing touchdowns. Against Tulsa on October 10, he carried 41 times for 232 yards and three scores, illustrating how much of the workload he can shoulder.

The passing threat deserves attention, too. Tight end Jordan Collins caught two passes for 117 yards and two touchdowns against UTSA, including a 92-yard scoring pass from Gutierrez. Defensively, Navy allows just 2.73 yards per rushing attempt. That is a clear strength, even though it is not a measure of how well the Midshipmen will handle Jackson’s passing.

Key matchup factors

North Texas’s extra preparation week matters most against Navy’s option-based offense, which its official preview describes as relying on deception and misdirection. The extra time offers a potential benefit; execution still determines whether defenders stay with their responsibilities. Navy’s rushing production makes breakdowns a significant concern for the visitors.

The other pivotal question is whether North Texas can sustain its passing production if White finds fewer openings. The forecast favors that route, but there are no matchup-specific pass-defense figures here to turn it into a decisive advantage.

SportsJaw’s October 22 consensus update favors North Texas -2.5 (-111) at 74% blended support. The combined modeled-equivalent count is 445 selections for North Texas and 156 for Navy, totaling 601. These are not observed sportsbook ticket totals. North Texas also leads SportsJaw member picks, while the separate sportsbook component shows 67% support. Agreement strengthens the directional lean, but it is not a win probability.

North Texas Eagles vs Navy Midshipmen spread prediction

Spread recommendation: Pass on North Texas -2.5 (-111) and Navy +2.5 (-109). The projected four-point North Texas win favors the visitors against the number, but only narrowly. A forecast that close to the spread needs a firmer matchup edge before becoming an official wager.

Navy’s home results and rushing attack are substantial counterweights to North Texas’s passing production. They also make the underdog worth considering, but +2.5 offers no cushion against a three-point loss. Neither side earns a recommendation at the supplied price.

North Texas Eagles vs Navy Midshipmen total prediction

Total recommendation: Pass on Over 63.5 (-110) and Under 63.5 (-110). The projected 66 points lean toward the Over, supported directionally by North Texas’s scoring output and Navy’s rushing production. Collins’ recent touchdowns also show that Navy can generate points through the air.

The uncertainty lies in possessions and defensive resistance. Sustained Navy rushing drives could limit North Texas’s opportunities, while Navy’s run defense could disrupt the visitors’ balance. Those are plausible game paths, not measured pace advantages. A projection only 2.5 points above the total is too fragile for an Over wager.

North Texas Eagles vs Navy Midshipmen Projected Score & Betting Picks

Game forecast: North Texas 35, Navy 31. North Texas’s passing production earns the winning pick, with White providing another proven source of offense. Navy’s home winning streak and quarterback-led rushing attack are the strongest reasons this could swing the other way.

Confidence is low because the passing advantage remains an inference against this particular defense, and Navy has repeatedly played close games. The spread and total both remain passes. Official SportsJaw wager: Pass.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

Eagles35

Midshipmen31

Projected winner North Texas EaglesConfidencelow
Pick on the Spread

Published pick: Pass (article line changed)

Pick on the Total

Published pick: Pass (article line changed)

Sources

  • Naval Academy AthleticsNavy Plays Host to North Texas in Homecoming Showdown
  • University of North Texas AthleticsMean Green Ready For Tough Matchup at Navy
#NorthTexasEagles#NavyMidshipmen

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Written by

SportsJaw Editorial Team

SportsJaw's editorial organization researches matchup data, current odds, injuries and reporting, then validates each published preview against its listed sources and displayed markets.

About our editorial process

SportsJaw Eagles vs Midshipmen game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Eagles vs Midshipmen matchups or learn how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · North Texas Eagles-125 → -145Moved
  • Moneyline · Navy Midshipmen+105 → +130Moved
  • Spread · North Texas Eagles-2 (-108) → -3 (-103)Moved
  • Spread · Navy Midshipmen+2 (-110) → +3 (-117)Moved
  • Total · Over62.5 (-110) → 60.5 (-110)Moved
  • Total · Under62.5 (-110) → 60.5 (-110)Moved

ATS and O/U trends

North Texas Eagles
3-2 matchup record · 6-4-0 ATS · 8-2-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file
Navy Midshipmen
2-4 matchup record · 5-5-0 ATS · 6-4-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2026-10-20T04:01:54.613Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

No verified injury or availability note was included in the published matchup research.

Recent head-to-head

  • 2025-11-01Navy Midshipmen 17 · North Texas Eagles 31
Final result

Matchup pick recap

North Texas Eagles defeated Navy Midshipmen 49-39

North Texas Eagles defeated Navy Midshipmen 49-39 on October 24, 2026, a 10-point decision in the series. North Texas Eagles' strongest period was the 1st quarter, when it outscored its opponent 14-3. Against SportsJaw's recorded North Texas Eagles -3 (-103) spread, North Texas Eagles covered, while the 88 combined points finished over the recorded total of 60.5.

SportsJaw editorial picks

  • Projected winnerNorth Texas EaglesWin
  • SpreadPass on North Texas Eagles -2.5 (-111) and Navy Midshipmen +2.5 (-109)Pass
  • TotalPass on Over 63.5 (-110) and Under 63.5 (-110)Pass

Tipster picks

  • JackCohenSpread · North Texas Eagles -2.5 (-110)Win
  • MtgoldsteinSpread · Navy Midshipmen +3 (-105)Loss
  • ThinkmakegrowSpread · North Texas Eagles -3 (-112)Win