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NCAAF PicksSat 3:30 PM ET
North Texas Eagles logo
North Texas
Eagles
3-2
versus
Navy Midshipmen logo
Navy
Midshipmen
2-4
NCAAF · North Texas Eagles at Navy Midshipmen

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North Texas vs Navy consensus picks

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North Texas Eagles vs Navy Midshipmen Predictions October 24, 2026

Game time: October 24, 2026 at 3:30 PM ET

Venue: Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium — Annapolis, MD

Article updated Oct 20, 12:01 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

North Texas Eagles will beat the Navy Midshipmen 34-31 in our forecast for October 24. The Eagles’ nationally ranked passing production and extra rest give them the edge, although Navy’s rushing attack makes this a close call. North Texas -2.5 (-110) offers too little cushion for an official wager, and the total of 62 is also a Pass.

North Texas Eagles vs Navy Midshipmen prediction and best bet

North Texas gets the winner pick because its offensive production offers multiple ways to compete with Navy. The passing game is the strongest reason to favor the Eagles, while an open week adds a preparation advantage. That combination earns a narrow edge in the forecast.

Best bet: Pass. Picking North Texas to win does not make laying 2.5 points automatic. Navy has played five consecutive one-score games, and its rushing production gives the home side a credible route to another tight finish. The projected margin leaves little room for error at the supplied spread.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Game time: Saturday, October 24, 2026, at 3:30 p.m. ET, in the 2026 college football season.

Venue: Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Annapolis, Maryland. This is Navy’s Homecoming game.

Broadcast: CBS Sports Network.

Records and conference position: North Texas is 4-2 overall and second in the American at 2-0. Navy is 2-4 overall and 1-3 in conference play.

SportsJaw moneylines: North Texas -130; Navy +110.

SportsJaw odds: North Texas Eagles -2.5 (-108); Navy Midshipmen +2.5 (-110). Moneyline: North Texas Eagles -130; Navy Midshipmen +110. Total: Over 62 (-110); Under 62 (-110).

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

North Texas Eagles outlook

North Texas ranks second nationally in passing offense at 347.0 yards per game, third in total offense at 533.8 and fifth in scoring at 42.2 through six games. Those numbers make the Eagles the preferred winner, but they are season averages rather than a promise of similar output in Annapolis.

Quarterback Tayven Jackson averages 311.3 passing yards and 321.8 total-offense yards per game. His production gives North Texas an alternative if Navy makes rushing yards difficult to earn. It is the Eagles’ clearest offensive strength, though Navy’s cited defensive numbers concern the run rather than the pass.

Running back Jahiem White brings balance with 114.5 rushing yards per game, 7.16 yards per carry and nine rushing touchdowns. He also averages 146.5 all-purpose yards. White’s matchup with Navy’s rushing defense should test how much of that balance North Texas can maintain.

Navy Midshipmen outlook

Navy ranks fourth nationally in rushing at 298.5 yards per game. Quarterback Jackson Gutierrez ran for a career-high 232 yards and three touchdowns on 41 carries against Tulsa on October 10, demonstrating how much production the Midshipmen can get from that position.

Gutierrez followed with 139 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 21 attempts in the October 17 loss at UTSA. He also completed three of six passes for 120 yards and two touchdowns. Tight end Jordan Collins accounted for two receptions, 117 yards and both receiving scores, including a school-record 92-yard touchdown reception.

Navy gained 477 total yards, including 294 rushing yards, but lost 38-34 after conceding a 41-yard touchdown pass with 2:45 remaining. Its record in the last five one-score games is 1-4, compared with 5-0 in such games in 2025. Close losses show competitiveness; they do not guarantee either another defeat or a reversal.

Key matchup factors

Navy’s rushing defense allows 2.73 yards per carry, eighth nationally. That is the strongest defensive counterargument to the North Texas pick. If White struggles, Jackson could carry more of the offensive burden. Strong run defense alone, however, tells us little about how Navy will handle the Eagles’ passing game.

The rest difference favors North Texas. Navy is playing its fifth straight game without a bye and facing its third consecutive opponent with more rest. Extra preparation could help the Eagles, but fatigue should be treated as a possible influence rather than an assumed late-game failure.

The October 20 SportsJaw consensus update at 03:57 UTC shows a 50 percent spread split. The modeled equivalent sample totals 600 selections, divided 300-300. North Texas appears in the leader field, but the percentages are tied. This is neither an observed sportsbook ticket count nor a team win probability, and it adds no directional edge.

North Texas Eagles vs Navy Midshipmen spread prediction

Spread recommendation: Pass on North Texas -2.5 (-110) and Navy +2.5 (-110).

A 34-31 North Texas victory would cover, but only by half a point. The Eagles’ offensive profile and rest advantage support the winner selection more comfortably than the wager. Navy’s rushing strength and recent close games keep the projected margin fragile. Taking the home underdog also requires more conviction than this matchup offers.

North Texas Eagles vs Navy Midshipmen total prediction

Total recommendation: Pass on Over 62 (-106) and Under 62 (-112).

The projected 65 points lean above the line, with North Texas’s scoring average and Navy’s productive UTSA outing pointing toward scoring potential. Still, Navy’s run defense could disrupt the Eagles’ balance. A successful Navy rushing game could also shorten possessions for North Texas. Neither scenario is certain enough to turn a modest forecast difference into an official total wager.

North Texas Eagles vs Navy Midshipmen projected score

Game forecast: North Texas Eagles 34, Navy Midshipmen 31. Confidence: low.

North Texas’s passing production and preparation advantage decide the pick. Navy’s strongest counterargument is its ability to generate offense on the ground while challenging White defensively. That combination makes a narrow road win more persuasive than a comfortable Eagles victory. The single official SportsJaw betting lean is Pass; both the spread and total remain passes at the supplied prices.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

Eagles34

Midshipmen31

Projected winner North Texas EaglesConfidencelow
Pick on the Spread

Published pick: Pass on North Texas Eagles -2.5 (-110) and Navy Midshipmen +2.5 (-110)

Pick on the Total

Published pick: Pass on Over 62 (-106) and Under 62 (-112)

Sources

  • Naval Academy AthleticsNavy Plays Host to North Texas in Homecoming Showdown
  • Naval Academy AthleticsPrevious-game context: Navy Falls to UTSA in 38-34 Thriller Despite Record-Setting Performance by Gutierrez and Collins

SportsJaw Eagles vs Midshipmen game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Eagles vs Midshipmen matchups or learn how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Crowd vs qualified handicappers

No qualifying consensus sample is available yet.

Qualified handicappers need at least 20 graded picks and a 52.5% win rate. A market needs at least three current qualified picks. Selection share is not a win probability.

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · North Texas Eagles-125 → -130Moved
  • Moneyline · Navy Midshipmen+105 → +110Moved
  • Spread · North Texas Eagles-2 (-108) → -2.5 (-108)Moved
  • Spread · Navy Midshipmen+2 (-110) → +2.5 (-110)Moved
  • Total · Over62.5 (-110) → 62 (-110)Moved
  • Total · Under62.5 (-110) → 62 (-110)Moved

ATS and O/U trends

North Texas Eagles
3-2 matchup record · 6-4-0 ATS · 8-2-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file
Navy Midshipmen
2-4 matchup record · 5-5-0 ATS · 6-4-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2026-10-20T04:01:54.613Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

No verified injury or availability note was included in the published matchup research.

Recent head-to-head

  • 2025-11-01Navy Midshipmen 17 · North Texas Eagles 31
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