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NCAAF PicksSat 3:30 PM ET
Bowling Green Falcons logo
Bowling Green
Falcons
2-5
versus
Buffalo Bulls logo
Buffalo
Bulls
4-2
NCAAF · Bowling Green Falcons at Buffalo Bulls

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Bowling Green Falcons vs Buffalo Bulls Predictions October 24, 2026

Game time: October 24, 2026 at 3:30 PM ET

Venue: Broadview Stadium — Buffalo, NY

Article updated Oct 19, 8:38 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

Buffalo will beat Bowling Green 24-21 in our forecast for Oct. 24, with Messiah Burch's four consecutive 100-yard rushing games giving the Bulls the strongest recent offensive foundation. The edge is modest: Buffalo needed overtime to win its last game, and Bowling Green showed a dangerous passing connection. Buffalo -4.5 (-109) offers no compelling value here, making Pass the official betting recommendation.

Bowling Green Falcons vs Buffalo Bulls prediction and best bet

Buffalo is the pick to win, but the projected three-point margin makes laying 4.5 points unattractive. Burch's sustained production gives the Bulls a persuasive starting point for the forecast. It does not, by itself, settle how comfortably they can beat Bowling Green.

The Falcons bring a credible counter through Jay Kastantin's passing. Both teams went to overtime on October 17, with Buffalo beating Massachusetts and Bowling Green losing to Ball State. Those results against different opponents offer no clean separation between these teams. The official best-bet decision is Pass, with low confidence in the Buffalo forecast.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Game: Bowling Green Falcons at Buffalo Bulls, Saturday, October 24, 2026, in college football.

Venue: Broadview Stadium.

Broadcast: ESPN+.

Conference records and recent form: Both teams are 2-1 in MAC play following their October 17 games. Buffalo has won two straight.

SportsJaw odds: Bowling Green Falcons +3.5 (-110); Buffalo Bulls -3.5 (-110). Moneyline: Bowling Green Falcons +154; Buffalo Bulls -180. Total: Over 44.5 (-110); Under 44.5 (-110).

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

SportsJaw moneyline: Bowling Green +160; Buffalo -190. SportsJaw total: Over 44.5 (-111); Under 44.5 (-113).

Bowling Green Falcons outlook

Bowling Green lost 32-31 to Ball State in overtime on October 17, but Kastantin supplied an encouraging passing performance. He completed 17 of 24 attempts for 215 yards and two touchdowns. That combination of accuracy and scoring gives the Falcons a plausible route to challenging Buffalo without requiring a dominant rushing performance.

Brennan Ridley's 77-yard touchdown reception was Bowling Green's longest play from scrimmage of the season. It demonstrates the damage this connection can do, although one long completion is a thin foundation for expecting repeated explosive plays.

Austyn Dendy contributed 61 rushing yards and a touchdown. His role matters to the forecast because a complementary ground contribution would ease the burden on Kastantin. The Ball State result shows Bowling Green can produce points; it offers less reassurance about protecting a lead after allowing 32.

Buffalo Bulls outlook

Burch rushed for a career-best 172 yards in Buffalo's 25-18 overtime victory over Massachusetts. That followed 389 rushing yards across his previous three games. His four-game stretch is the clearest sustained individual strength in this matchup and the main reason to favor the Bulls.

Jason Wright passed for 134 yards and two touchdowns against Massachusetts. Clint Walker caught seven passes for 45 yards, both career highs, and scored twice. Walker's contribution gives Bowling Green another receiving threat to account for alongside the rushing attack.

There is still reason to temper expectations for Buffalo's passing volume. Before October 17, Wright had completed 52% of his passes and averaged 160 passing yards over his previous three starts. Buffalo can win with that balance, but a game requiring repeated passing answers would place more pressure on an offense whose strongest recent production has come on the ground.

Key matchup factors

The central question is whether Bowling Green can slow Burch enough to force Buffalo toward its passing game. His recent rushing totals favor Buffalo, but there are no Bowling Green run-defense figures here to establish a specific advantage against this opponent. The forecast rests on Burch's form rather than a demonstrated defensive mismatch.

Buffalo's earlier conference defensive results offer some encouragement. Before October 17, the Bulls reported allowing one passing touchdown across their previous three games and none in their first two MAC contests. They also held Western Michigan and Toledo to 115 and 110 rushing yards, respectively.

Those dated results suggest Buffalo can challenge a balanced offense. Kastantin's latest outing supplies the counterargument: Bowling Green has a recent example of accurate passing and a long touchdown that could change a close game quickly.

Bowling Green Falcons vs Buffalo Bulls spread prediction

Spread recommendation: Pass on Buffalo -4.5 (-109) and Bowling Green +4.5 (-109). Buffalo has the stronger case to win, but its recent overtime victory gives little comfort about laying a margin beyond a field goal.

The 24-21 projection falls on Bowling Green's side of the spread. That makes the Falcons worth considering, but a fragile three-point forecast is insufficient reason to turn the underdog into an official wager. Neither side offers a convincing cushion against the uncertainty in this matchup.

Bowling Green Falcons vs Buffalo Bulls total prediction

Total recommendation: Pass on Over 44.5 (-111) and Under 44.5 (-113). The projected 45 points sit almost directly on the supplied total, leaving no meaningful scoring edge.

Bowling Green's previous game finished with 63 combined points and Buffalo's with 43, but both included overtime. Treating those final totals as straightforward guides to this game would overstate their usefulness. Buffalo's earlier defensive results pull against the scoring potential shown by Kastantin and Burch, keeping both total prices unappealing.

Bowling Green Falcons vs Buffalo Bulls projected score

Projected score: Buffalo Bulls 24, Bowling Green Falcons 21. Burch's sustained rushing production tips the forecast toward Buffalo. Bowling Green's strongest response is Kastantin finding efficient completions and another explosive gain, which could overturn a narrow advantage.

Confidence is low because the clearest Buffalo strength has not been matched against verified Bowling Green run-defense performance. Buffalo remains the projected winner, while the spread and total are separate Pass decisions. The single official SportsJaw betting recommendation is Pass.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

Falcons21

Bulls24

Projected winner Buffalo BullsConfidencelow
Pick on the Spread

Published pick: Pass (article line changed)

Pick on the Total

Published pick: Pass on Over 44.5 (-111) and Under 44.5 (-113)

Sources

  • Bowling Green State University AthleticsPrevious-game context: Cardinals Top Falcons, 32-31, in Overtime Thriller
  • University at Buffalo AthleticsPrevious-game context: Bulls Work Overtime to Defeat UMass and Retain Flagship Cup
  • University at Buffalo AthleticsPrevious-game context: Bulls Battle UMass for Flagship Cup on Saturday

SportsJaw Falcons vs Bulls game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Falcons vs Bulls matchups or learn how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Crowd vs qualified handicappers

No qualifying consensus sample is available yet.

Qualified handicappers need at least 20 graded picks and a 52.5% win rate. A market needs at least three current qualified picks. Selection share is not a win probability.

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · Bowling Green Falcons+160 → +154Moved
  • Moneyline · Buffalo Bulls-190 → -180Moved
  • Spread · Bowling Green Falcons+4.5 (-110) → +3.5 (-110)Moved
  • Spread · Buffalo Bulls-4.5 (-110) → -3.5 (-110)Moved
  • Total · Over44.5 (-107) → 44.5 (-110)Moved
  • Total · Under44.5 (-114) → 44.5 (-110)Moved

ATS and O/U trends

Bowling Green Falcons
2-5 matchup record · 4-6-0 ATS · 6-4-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file
Buffalo Bulls
4-2 matchup record · 5-5-0 ATS · 5-5-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2026-10-19T12:38:43.238Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

No verified injury or availability note was included in the published matchup research.

Recent head-to-head

  • 2025-11-01Buffalo Bulls 28 · Bowling Green Falcons 3
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