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  3. Utah State Aggies vs Texas State Bobcats
Sat 7:30 PM ET
Utah State Aggies logo
Utah State
Aggies17
2-4
versus
Texas State Bobcats logo
Texas State
Bobcats20
3-3
Final
Team1234T
Utah State Aggies630817
Texas State Bobcats707620
NCAAF · Utah State Aggies at Texas State Bobcats

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Utah State Aggies vs Texas State Bobcats Prediction, Odds and Best Bet for Oct. 24, 2026

Game time: October 24, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET

Venue: UFCU Stadium — San Marcos, TX

Article updated Oct 22, 2:03 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

Texas State will beat Utah State, projected at Texas State 38, Utah State 24, behind the rushing combination of Torrance Burgess Jr. and Brad Jackson. The Bobcats’ sustained scoring gives them the stronger winning case for Oct. 24, but laying 13.5 points leaves little cushion in that forecast. Neither the spread nor the 61.5 total offers a compelling wager.

Utah State Aggies vs Texas State Bobcats prediction and best bet

Texas State is the pick to win, with medium confidence. Its offense has averaged 40 points per game and scored at least 26 in each of its past five games. That consistency gives the Bobcats a stronger foundation than their latest blowout alone.

The official betting recommendation is Pass. A projected 14-point victory barely clears Texas State -13.5 (-110), and Utah State enters after a bye and a comeback win. The favorite has a convincing route to victory, but the spread demands a comfortable margin. The total needs a separate judgment about how much the Aggies contribute.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Game: Utah State Aggies at Texas State Bobcats, 2026 college football season.

Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 24, 2026, at 5:30 p.m. Mountain time.

Venue: UFCU Stadium in San Marcos, Texas.

Broadcast: CBS Sports Network.

Records: Utah State Aggies 2-4; Texas State Bobcats 3-3.

SportsJaw odds: Utah State Aggies +14.5 (-113); Texas State Bobcats -14.5 (-107). Moneyline: Utah State Aggies +462; Texas State Bobcats -625. Total: Over 59 (-110); Under 59 (-110).

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

Utah State Aggies outlook

Utah State’s most useful recent result is its 17-16 victory over Washington State before the bye. The Aggies recovered from a 13-point halftime deficit to earn their first Pac-12 win. That comeback offers a reason to expect resistance if Texas State takes an early lead, even though it says less about Utah State’s ability to match a higher scoring pace.

Finishing drives is the central offensive concern. Running back Javen Jacobs identified missed red-zone opportunities and emphasized quicker starts and better conversion of scoring chances. Against this opponent, productive possessions need to translate into points; lengthy drives that end empty would make keeping pace considerably harder.

The bye also brings a possible personnel benefit. Coach Bronco Mendenhall anticipated three or four players returning for Texas State week, but did not identify them. Their availability remains unconfirmed, so any improvement in depth is a possibility rather than a firm reason to upgrade the Aggies.

Texas State Bobcats outlook

Burgess gives Texas State a substantial rushing threat beyond one standout performance. Through seven weeks, he has 838 rushing yards, ranks second nationally in that category and leads FBS with 139.7 rushing yards per game. His 7.76 yards per carry and nation-leading six runs of at least 40 yards show the explosive element Utah State must contain.

Jackson adds a second source of rushing production. In the Oct. 15 win over Colorado State, he ran 13 times for 181 yards and three touchdowns while completing 14 of 19 passes for 213 yards and another score. Burgess contributed 224 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 24 carries.

Texas State won that game 66-27, setting school records with 503 rushing yards and 716 total yards. Those totals illustrate the ceiling, but projecting a repeat would be aggressive. The more useful question is how much of that ground production carries into a different matchup.

Key matchup factors

Utah State must account for both a productive running back and a quarterback who can gain significant yardage himself. That combination makes containing the ground game the first priority. For the forecast, it also gives Texas State multiple routes to sustain offense without assuming another record-setting performance.

The scoring margin could turn on Utah State’s finishing rather than Texas State’s ability to move the ball. Better red-zone execution would help the Aggies keep the spread within reach. Another game spent recovering from a slow start would put more pressure on every subsequent possession.

As of Oct. 22 at 05:54 UTC, SportsJaw’s blended spread consensus favors Texas State -13.5 (-110) at 67%. The combined consensus count is 402 selections for Texas State and 198 for Utah State, incorporating a modeled sportsbook sample and SportsJaw participation. Those figures describe selection preference, not a win probability or a count of observed sportsbook tickets.

Utah State Aggies vs Texas State Bobcats spread prediction

Spread recommendation: Pass on Texas State -13.5 (-110) and Utah State +13.5 (-110).

Texas State’s offensive production supports favoritism, but the projected margin is only half a point above the line. Utah State’s comeback and extra preparation time are meaningful counterweights when asking the Bobcats to win by at least 14.

There is no demonstrated cushion for laying the points, and Utah State’s scoring concerns make taking them unattractive too. The consensus preference strengthens the picture of a popular favorite; it does not make the price more generous.

Utah State Aggies vs Texas State Bobcats total prediction

Total recommendation: Pass on Over 61.5 (-110) and Under 61.5 (-110).

The projected 62 points sit almost exactly on the total. Texas State’s scoring average and explosive rushing offer an Over argument, while Utah State’s recent 17-16 game and red-zone problems point toward a less reliable contribution.

Backing the Under would also require confidence that the Bobcats’ scoring stays contained. Neither direction has enough separation from 61.5 to justify an official wager.

Utah State Aggies vs Texas State Bobcats Projected Score & Betting Picks

Game forecast: Texas State Bobcats 38, Utah State Aggies 24. Confidence: medium. The Bobcats’ sustained scoring and complementary rushing threats make them the likely winner.

Utah State’s rest, comeback ability and potential personnel returns are the strongest counterarguments. Those factors temper expectations for the margin without overturning the winner. Official SportsJaw wager: Pass.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

Aggies24

Bobcats38

Projected winner Texas State BobcatsConfidencemedium
Pick on the Spread

Published pick: Pass (article line changed)

Pick on the Total

Published pick: Pass (article line changed)

Sources

  • KSL SportsUtah State emerges from bye week healthier, hungry for Texas State
  • KSL SportsHow to watch, stream, and listen to Utah State football at Texas State Bobcats
  • Texas State AthleticsJackson, Burgess Jr. Pick Up National Recognition
#UtahStateAggies#TexasStateBobcats

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Written by

SportsJaw Editorial Team

SportsJaw's editorial organization researches matchup data, current odds, injuries and reporting, then validates each published preview against its listed sources and displayed markets.

About our editorial process

SportsJaw Aggies vs Bobcats game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Aggies vs Bobcats matchups or learn how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · Utah State Aggies+280 → +462Moved
  • Moneyline · Texas State Bobcats-360 → -625Moved
  • Spread · Utah State Aggies+8.5 (-110) → +14.5 (-113)Moved
  • Spread · Texas State Bobcats-8.5 (-110) → -14.5 (-107)Moved
  • Total · Over59.5 (-110) → 59 (-110)Moved
  • Total · Under59.5 (-110) → 59 (-110)Moved

ATS and O/U trends

Utah State Aggies
2-4 matchup record · 6-4-0 ATS · 2-8-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file
Texas State Bobcats
3-3 matchup record · 6-4-0 ATS · 6-4-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2026-10-20T04:07:17.550Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

No verified injury or availability note was included in the published matchup research.

Recent head-to-head

No completed head-to-head result is available in the current history window.

Final result

Matchup pick recap

Texas State Bobcats defeated Utah State Aggies 20-17

Texas State Bobcats defeated Utah State Aggies 20-17 on October 24, 2026, a 3-point decision in the series. Texas State Bobcats' strongest period was the 3rd quarter, when it outscored its opponent 7-0. Against SportsJaw's recorded Utah State Aggies +14.5 (-113) spread, Utah State Aggies covered, while the 37 combined points finished under the recorded total of 59.

SportsJaw editorial picks

  • Projected winnerTexas State BobcatsWin
  • SpreadPass on Texas State Bobcats -13.5 (-110) and Utah State Aggies +13.5 (-110)Pass
  • TotalPass on Over 61.5 (-110) and Under 61.5 (-110)Pass

Tipster picks

No graded public tipster picks were recorded for this matchup.