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  1. Home
  2. NCAAF Picks
  3. Kansas St. Wildcats vs Arizona St. Sun Devils
Sat 3:45 PM ET
Kansas St. Wildcats logo
Kansas St.
Wildcats17
4-2
versus
Arizona St. Sun Devils logo
Arizona St.
Sun Devils28
3-3
Final
Team1234T
Kansas St. Wildcats737017
Arizona St. Sun Devils7701428
NCAAF · Kansas St. Wildcats at Arizona St. Sun Devils

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Kansas State vs. Arizona State prediction: Wildcats 30, Sun Devils 27; best bet Pass

Game time: October 24, 2026 at 3:45 PM ET

Venue: Mountain America Stadium — Tempe, AZ

Article updated Oct 24, 1:09 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

Kansas State will beat Arizona State 30-27, with its efficient rushing attack providing the strongest matchup advantage against a defense that surrendered 260 rushing yards last week. Avery Johnson’s questionable designation makes that edge fragile, however. Neither Kansas State -2.5 nor the total of 56 offers enough margin for an actionable wager. The official SportsJaw betting recommendation is Pass.

Kansas St. Wildcats vs Arizona St. Sun Devils prediction and best bet

Kansas State gets the nod because its strongest offensive trait targets Arizona State’s most recent defensive weakness. The Wildcats entered this matchup second nationally in yards per rush at 6.23 and sixth in rushing yards per game at 239.8. Their 359 rushing yards against Kansas give that season profile a convincing recent example.

The complication is how much of that production depends on Johnson, whose initial availability designation was questionable. Arizona State also has a credible passing threat and showed improvement after halftime at Texas Tech. Those factors keep the forecast close: Kansas State 30, Arizona State 27. Best bet: Pass, with low confidence in the game forecast.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Game: NCAA football, 2026 season. Saturday, October 24, 2026, at 12:45 p.m. Arizona time, 2:45 p.m. Central.

Venue: Mountain America Stadium, Tempe, Arizona. Broadcast: ESPN2.

Records: Kansas St. Wildcats 4-2; Arizona St. Sun Devils 3-3.

SportsJaw moneyline: Kansas State -140; Arizona State +120.

SportsJaw odds: Kansas St. Wildcats -1.5 (-105); Arizona St. Sun Devils +1.5 (-115). Moneyline: Kansas St. Wildcats -115; Arizona St. Sun Devils -105. Total: Over 51.5 (-114); Under 51.5 (-106).

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

Quarterbacks: Johnson was initially questionable. Arizona State’s October 21 report left its starter undecided.

Kansas St. Wildcats outlook

Kansas State averaged 35.5 points and 464.7 yards through six games. Its running efficiency gives the offense a strong foundation, while a 59.3% third-down conversion rate, ranked second nationally in the October 21 report, shows how effectively it has extended possessions. Those strengths favor the Wildcats if their quarterback situation allows them to maintain the same approach.

The October 17 victory over Kansas was especially persuasive. Kansas State won 35-24, outgained the Jayhawks 568-319 and averaged 7.0 yards per rush. Joe Jackson supplied a season-high 159 rushing yards and a touchdown. Johnson added 132 rushing yards alongside 209 passing yards and a passing touchdown.

Johnson’s importance goes beyond that performance. He led the team with 462 rushing yards on 51 carries through six games and had thrown for 1,301 yards, 10 touchdowns and three interceptions. The initial report also listed quarterback Blake Barnett and tight end Garrett Oakley as questionable. KWCH/WIBW identified Jacob Knuth as the likely replacement if Johnson could not play.

Defensively, Kansas State allowed 136.3 passing yards per game. That gives the Wildcats another route to a win if their own scoring falls short of its usual level.

Arizona St. Sun Devils outlook

Arizona State’s passing production is the strongest argument against the road favorite. Through six games, the Sun Devils averaged 276.7 passing yards, 420.3 total yards and 31.3 points. Reed Harris supplied 41 catches for 653 yards and eight touchdowns, giving the offense a productive receiving option regardless of the quarterback choice.

The October 17 loss at Texas Tech exposed a much less comfortable balance. Arizona State accumulated 380 passing yards but only 35 rushing yards in a 53-25 defeat, while allowing 260 yards on the ground. Against Kansas State’s rushing strength, another performance like that would put considerable pressure on the passing game.

There was a meaningful response after halftime. Texas Tech gained 404 yards before the break and 98 afterward. Mikey Keene completed 25 of 34 passes for 256 yards and two touchdowns in the second half after Cutter Boley was benched following two interceptions, including one returned for a touchdown.

Kenny Dillingham had not announced a starter in the October 21 report. Keene’s relief appearance offers encouragement, but it remains one half of football. Arizona State’s defense also deserves a balanced assessment: it allowed 32.0 points per game, yet held opponents to 56.7% passing completions through six contests.

Key matchup factors

The quarterback decisions affect both teams’ preferred paths. Johnson’s availability influences how much Kansas State can demand from its running game. Arizona State must weigh Keene’s productive relief appearance against a Wildcats defense ranked second in forced-incompletion rate at 16.1%. Arizona State ranked ninth at 13.2%, so neither passing attack gets an obviously easy assignment.

The October 24 consensus update at 04:53 UTC favored Over 53.5 (-101) at 60%. Its combined modeled count was 360 Over selections to 240 Under, using a modeled sportsbook sample and SportsJaw participation. Those are not observed ticket totals or win probabilities. That lower consensus total also differs materially from the actionable SportsJaw number of 56.

Kansas St. Wildcats vs Arizona St. Sun Devils spread prediction

Spread recommendation: Pass Kansas State -2.5 (-109) and Arizona State +2.5 (-105). The projected three-point Kansas State victory would cover the favorite’s spread, but only by half a point. That is a narrow cushion for a forecast with a major quarterback question.

Jackson’s production helps the Wildcats’ case, but assuming the offense would operate equally well without Johnson would stretch the evidence. Arizona State’s passing ability makes the underdog competitive without making +2.5 an automatic bargain. The matchup favors Kansas State slightly; neither spread price earns a wager.

Kansas St. Wildcats vs Arizona St. Sun Devils total prediction

Total recommendation: Pass Over 56 (-103) and Under 56 (-117). The teams’ scoring averages and Arizona State’s defensive difficulties give the Over a plausible case. The 30-27 forecast produces 57 points, just one above the betting total.

That small gap is vulnerable to changes in quarterback effectiveness. Kansas State’s pass defense and Arizona State’s improved second half at Texas Tech also argue against treating offensive averages as a scoring guarantee. The Under carries the higher supplied cost, and the forecast offers no clear reason to pay it. Neither direction has a convincing edge.

Kansas St. Wildcats vs Arizona St. Sun Devils Projected Score & Betting Picks

Game forecast: Kansas State 30, Arizona State 27. The Wildcats’ rushing efficiency and ability to extend drives are the main reasons to select them. Their pass defense offers a second advantage against an opponent whose recent offense relied heavily on throwing.

The strongest counterargument is Johnson’s uncertain availability, coupled with the possibility that Keene’s second-half performance translates into another productive outing. Arizona State has enough receiving production to challenge this forecast, and its defensive improvement after halftime deserves weight. Confidence is low because the quarterback questions touch the central matchup advantages. Kansas State is the predicted winner; both spread and total recommendations remain Pass. The single official SportsJaw wager is Pass.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

Wildcats30

Sun Devils27

Projected winner Kansas St. WildcatsConfidencelow
Pick on the Spread

Published pick: Pass (article line changed)

Pick on the Total

Published pick: Pass (article line changed)

Sources

  • Sun Devil AthleticsFootball looks to rebound at home against Kansas State
  • Kansas State University AthleticsCats Open Two-Game Road Swing in Tempe
  • CBS Sports / Field Level MediaArizona State hosts Kansas State with QB decision looming
#KansasStWildcats#ArizonaStSunDevils

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Written by

SportsJaw Editorial Team

SportsJaw's editorial organization researches matchup data, current odds, injuries and reporting, then validates each published preview against its listed sources and displayed markets.

About our editorial process

SportsJaw Wildcats vs Sun Devils game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Wildcats vs Sun Devils matchups or learn how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · Kansas St. Wildcats-175 → -115Moved
  • Moneyline · Arizona St. Sun Devils+140 → -105Moved
  • Spread · Kansas St. Wildcats-3.5 (-103) → -1.5 (-105)Moved
  • Spread · Arizona St. Sun Devils+3.5 (-121) → +1.5 (-115)Moved
  • Total · Over56.5 (-108) → 51.5 (-114)Moved
  • Total · Under56.5 (-113) → 51.5 (-106)Moved

ATS and O/U trends

Kansas St. Wildcats
4-2 matchup record · 4-6-0 ATS · 6-4-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file
Arizona St. Sun Devils
3-3 matchup record · 4-6-0 ATS · 7-3-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2026-10-19T04:05:50.528Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

The complication is how much of that production depends on Johnson, whose initial availability designation was questionable. Arizona State also has a credible passing threat and showed improvement after halftime at Texas Tech. Those factors keep the forecast close: Kansas State 30, Arizona State 27. Best bet: Pass, with low confidence in the game forecast.

Quarterbacks: Johnson was initially questionable. Arizona State’s October 21 report left its starter undecided.

Johnson’s importance goes beyond that performance. He led the team with 462 rushing yards on 51 carries through six games and had thrown for 1,301 yards, 10 touchdowns and three interceptions. The initial report also listed quarterback Blake Barnett and tight end Garrett Oakley as questionable. KWCH/WIBW identified Jacob Knuth as the likely replacement if Johnson could not play.

Recent head-to-head

  • 2024-11-16Arizona St. Sun Devils 24 · Kansas St. Wildcats 14
Final result

Matchup pick recap

Arizona St. Sun Devils defeated Kansas St. Wildcats 28-17

Arizona St. Sun Devils defeated Kansas St. Wildcats 28-17 on October 24, 2026, a 11-point decision in the series. Arizona St. Sun Devils' strongest period was the 4th quarter, when it outscored its opponent 14-0. Against SportsJaw's recorded Kansas St. Wildcats -1.5 (-105) spread, Arizona St. Sun Devils covered, while the 45 combined points finished under the recorded total of 51.5.

SportsJaw editorial picks

  • Projected winnerKansas St. WildcatsLoss
  • SpreadPass Kansas St. Wildcats -2.5 (-109) and Arizona St. Sun Devils +2.5 (-105)Pass
  • TotalPass Over 56 (-103) and Under 56 (-117)Pass

Tipster picks

No graded public tipster picks were recorded for this matchup.