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  3. Mississippi Rebels vs Texas Longhorns
Sat 7:30 PM ET
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Texas Longhorns101401034
NCAAF · Mississippi Rebels at Texas Longhorns

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Mississippi Rebels vs Texas Longhorns prediction: Ole Miss +3 for Oct. 24

Game time: October 24, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET

Venue: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium — Austin, TX

Article updated Oct 24, 2:37 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

Mississippi will beat Texas, with a projected score of Mississippi 27, Texas 24. The strongest matchup advantage is the Rebels' pass protection facing a Texas defense without Colin Simmons, who has 10.5 sacks. Mississippi +3 (-105) offers an actionable spread wager, although injuries along the Rebels' offensive line temper confidence. The total at 54 is a Pass.

Mississippi Rebels vs Texas Longhorns prediction and best bet

Take Mississippi +3 (-105). The Rebels have won against LSU, Missouri and Louisville when each opponent was ranked in the AP Top 25. That experience, combined with Trinidad Chambliss' passing production, makes a road victory a reasonable forecast. Getting three points adds protection against a narrow Texas win.

The clearest matchup advantage involves pressure. Ole Miss has allowed 0.83 sacks per game, while Texas will be without Simmons and fellow edge Richard Wesley. Simmons contributed more than half of the Longhorns' 19 sacks. Texas still brings a defense allowing 17.8 points per game, so this is a medium-confidence selection. The projected result is Mississippi 27, Texas 24.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Game: Mississippi Rebels at Texas Longhorns, 2026 college football season.

Time: Saturday, October 24, 2026, at 6:30 p.m. CT.

Venue: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, Texas.

Broadcast: ABC.

Records: Mississippi Rebels 4-1; Texas Longhorns 4-2.

SportsJaw odds: Mississippi Rebels +3.5 (-110); Texas Longhorns -3.5 (-110). Moneyline: Mississippi Rebels +140; Texas Longhorns -160. Total: Over 55 (-110); Under 55 (-110).

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

Mississippi Rebels outlook

Chambliss enters with 1,676 passing yards and 14 total touchdowns through six games. He threw three touchdown passes against Missouri on October 17, while Kewan Lacy rushed for 122 yards on 16 carries. Those contributions give the Rebels a credible way to attack through either phase, rather than asking their quarterback to carry every possession.

Lacy was removed from the availability report on October 22 after initially being listed probable. His status matters against a Texas defense allowing 106.3 rushing yards per game. Ole Miss need not dominate on the ground to benefit from him, but productive early carries would make the passing game less predictable.

Protection is the Rebels' strongest season-long indicator: their 0.83 sacks allowed per game leads the SEC and ranks 10th nationally. Starting linemen Terez Davis and Brycen Sanders were listed questionable, however. Both started the first six games, making their availability a meaningful qualification to that advantage.

Defensively, Ole Miss held Missouri to 39 rushing yards in its latest game. That is an encouraging recent result, although one opponent's rushing output is a limited guide to this matchup. Safety Edwin Joseph is out for a second consecutive week following an ankle sprain, leaving a personnel concern against Arch Manning and Texas' passing game.

Texas Longhorns outlook

Texas' defense supplies the strongest reason to question the Mississippi pick. The Longhorns allow 272.5 total yards and 17.8 points per game, including 106.3 rushing yards. If that run defense limits Lacy, Texas can make Chambliss shoulder more of the offense and test whichever combination of linemen Ole Miss fields.

Replacing Simmons is a substantial challenge. His six-game production includes 10.5 sacks, 16 tackles for loss and two forced fumbles. He is out after a high-ankle sprain, and Wesley is also unavailable. Those absences weaken the case for expecting Texas to reproduce its season-long defensive results without interruption.

Manning has 1,295 passing yards and 11 passing touchdowns through six games. Cam Coleman has six touchdowns. The concern is consistency: Texas has gone three-and-out on 34.3% of possessions, the highest rate in the SEC. Its 810 rushing yards through six games have not prevented those frequent short possessions.

The backfield also loses Hollywood Smothers, ruled out in the October 23 availability report after recording 289 rushing yards on 65 carries. Derrek Cooper was probable, while Raleek Brown has 265 rushing yards. Texas' two recent losses came by a combined six points, a reminder that its losing streak leaves plenty of room for a competitive home performance.

Key matchup factors

Field position could matter in a game projected to finish within one possession. Ole Miss averages 44.5 net punting yards, sixth nationally, with Oscar Bird averaging 46.8 yards per punt. Effective punting could make Texas' difficulty sustaining possessions more costly by requiring longer scoring drives.

SportsJaw's community spread leader was Mississippi +3 (-105), showing 100% support in the October 21 update. The total leader was Under 53.5 (-105), also at 100%, in the October 24 update. These are community preferences, not win probabilities. The community total also differs from the supplied betting line of 54. Neither percentage adds a separate performance-based reason to make a wager.

Mississippi Rebels vs Texas Longhorns spread prediction

The spread recommendation is Mississippi Rebels +3 (-105). The combination of Chambliss' production, proven sack avoidance and Texas' missing edge defenders gives Ole Miss a plausible path to win. Receiving three points is particularly useful against a defense capable of keeping the margin tight.

Texas -3 (-112) requires more conviction in the Longhorns' offensive consistency than their three-and-out rate warrants. Still, Mississippi's questionable starting linemen could reduce its expected protection advantage. A Texas win by exactly three would push the Mississippi spread bet; a larger Texas victory would beat it.

Mississippi Rebels vs Texas Longhorns total prediction

Pass on the total of 54, priced Over 54 (-108) and Under 54 (-111). The projected 51 points lean below that line, but the scoring case pulls in both directions. Texas' defensive averages and uneven offensive possessions favor restraint.

Conversely, losing Simmons and Wesley could give Chambliss cleaner opportunities, while Mississippi has its own defensive absences. Short Texas possessions might also return the ball quickly to Ole Miss. Without a firmer picture of pace and scoring efficiency, the three-point gap between forecast and total is too fragile for an Under recommendation.

Mississippi Rebels vs Texas Longhorns Projected Score & Betting Picks

The forecast is Mississippi 27, Texas 24, with medium confidence. Chambliss and Lacy give the Rebels enough offensive options to exploit a Texas defense missing a major source of disruption. Ole Miss' protection record supports that expectation, subject to the uncertainty surrounding Davis and Sanders.

Texas' defensive efficiency is the strongest counterargument. If the Longhorns contain Lacy and pressure Chambliss despite their absences, Manning has a credible route to a home win. The narrow projected margin respects that possibility. Mississippi Rebels +3 (-105) remains the single official SportsJaw wager. The total at 54 is a Pass, even though the forecast finishes below it.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

Rebels27

Longhorns24

Projected winner Mississippi RebelsConfidencemedium
Pick on the Spread

Published pick: Spread: Mississippi Rebels +3 (-105)

Pick on the Total

Published pick: Pass (article line changed)

Sources

  • Ole Miss AthleticsFootball vs. Texas: First Look
  • Ole Miss AthleticsFootball vs. Texas: What To Watch For
  • University of Texas AthleticsForty Acres Insider: October 20
#MississippiRebels#TexasLonghorns

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Written by

SportsJaw Editorial Team

SportsJaw's editorial organization researches matchup data, current odds, injuries and reporting, then validates each published preview against its listed sources and displayed markets.

About our editorial process

SportsJaw Rebels vs Longhorns game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Rebels vs Longhorns matchups or learn how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · Mississippi Rebels+260 → +140Moved
  • Moneyline · Texas Longhorns-350 → -160Moved
  • Spread · Mississippi Rebels+8.5 (-110) → +3.5 (-110)Moved
  • Spread · Texas Longhorns-8.5 (-110) → -3.5 (-110)Moved
  • Total · Over54.5 (-115) → 55 (-110)Moved
  • Total · Under54.5 (-105) → 55 (-110)Moved

ATS and O/U trends

Mississippi Rebels
4-1 matchup record · 6-4-0 ATS · 6-4-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file
Texas Longhorns
4-2 matchup record · 3-7-0 ATS · 6-4-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2026-10-18T04:00:34.905Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

Protection is the Rebels' strongest season-long indicator: their 0.83 sacks allowed per game leads the SEC and ranks 10th nationally. Starting linemen Terez Davis and Brycen Sanders were listed questionable, however. Both started the first six games, making their availability a meaningful qualification to that advantage.

The backfield also loses Hollywood Smothers, ruled out in the October 23 availability report after recording 289 rushing yards on 65 carries. Derrek Cooper was probable, while Raleek Brown has 265 rushing yards. Texas' two recent losses came by a combined six points, a reminder that its losing streak leaves plenty of room for a competitive home performance.

Texas -3 (-112) requires more conviction in the Longhorns' offensive consistency than their three-and-out rate warrants. Still, Mississippi's questionable starting linemen could reduce its expected protection advantage. A Texas win by exactly three would push the Mississippi spread bet; a larger Texas victory would beat it.

Recent head-to-head

No completed head-to-head result is available in the current history window.

Final result

Matchup pick recap

Texas Longhorns defeated Mississippi Rebels 34-27

Texas Longhorns defeated Mississippi Rebels 34-27 on October 24, 2026, a 7-point decision in the series. Texas Longhorns' strongest period was the 2nd quarter, when it outscored its opponent 14-0. Against SportsJaw's recorded Mississippi Rebels +3.5 (-110) spread, Texas Longhorns covered, while the 61 combined points finished over the recorded total of 55.

SportsJaw editorial picks

  • Projected winnerMississippi RebelsLoss
  • SpreadSpread: Mississippi Rebels +3 (-105)Loss
  • TotalPass on total 54: Over 54 (-108), Under 54 (-111)Pass

Tipster picks

  • CodexSpread · Mississippi Rebels +3.5 (-113)Loss
  • 1118240754Total · Under 54 (-110)Loss
  • Amp2223Moneyline · Texas Longhorns -150Win
  • Amp2224Moneyline · Texas Longhorns -150Win