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  3. Air Force Falcons vs Navy Midshipmen
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NCAAF · Air Force Falcons at Navy Midshipmen

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Unbeaten Air Force Falcons Face Challenging Test Against Streaking Navy Midshipmen

Game time: October 21, 2023 at 12:00 PM ET

Venue: Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium — Annapolis, MD

Article updated Oct 15, 6:36 PM EDT

Published by SportsJaw Editorial Team

On Saturday, the undefeated Air Force Falcons will face off against the Navy Midshipmen in a non-conference battle at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium. The Falcons are 6-0

Game outlook

On Saturday, the undefeated Air Force Falcons will face off against the Navy Midshipmen in a non-conference battle at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium. The Falcons are 6-0 SU and 1st in the Mountain West, while the Midshipmen are 3-3 SU and 5th in the American. Kickoff is set for 12:00 PM Eastern Time. Air Force is looking to remain perfect with their 7th win of the season, while the Midshipmen are hoping to build on their current three game winning streak.

Game Info

When: Saturday, 10/21/2023 @ 12:00pm EST

Where: Jack Stephens Field at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium Stadium Falcons vs Midshipmen Betting Odds Moneyline: Falcons -400 | Midshipmen +305

Spread: Falcons -10.5 (-110) | Midshipmen +10.5 (-110)

Total: Over/Under 36 (-110)

Based on the moneyline, the implied probability that Air Force will win straight-up is 80%.

Air Force Falcons

The Air Force Falcons remained undefeated in 2023, defeating the Wyoming Cowboys 34-27 on Saturday. Down 21-17 at halftime, the Falcons completed their comeback with a 58-yard rushing touchdown from John Lee Eldridge III with 2:17 remaining in the game. Air Force outgained the Cowboys 414 yards to 321, with 356 of their yards coming from the ground. Quarterback Zac Larrier was responsible for 111 rushing yards and 58 passing yards with a touchdown, but was pulled from the game with a knee injury. Senior Jensen Jones was called off the bench and finished the game. Air Force ranks an impressive 13th in the nation in average points scored per game with 36, and 50th in average yards per game with 403. They have an elite defense, ranking 12th by allowing an average of 16.2 points per game to their opponents and 4th in the country for average yards allowed per game with 256.8. With a power ranking of 22, Air Force is ranked 15th in offense, 8th in defense, and are 6-0 (3-3 ATS) so far this season. Key Injuries: Quarterback Zac Larrier is out indefinitely with a knee issue sustained last week. TO THE HOUSE 💥 @Jleptt2901 pic.twitter.com/mGstak30uT

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

Navy Midshipmen Analysis

The Navy Midshipmen had a successful weekend, winning their second straight game with a shutout 14-0 victory over Charlotte 49ers. Freshman quarterback Braxton Woodson threw for 85 yards and a 69-yard touchdown to running back Eli Heidenreich in the third quarter, while running back Alex Tecza contributed 75 yards and a 62-yard touchdown. The Midshipmen defense put together a solid performance and did not allow a turnover, recovering a fumble and picking off the Charlotte quarterback twice. Average Points Per Game: 19.6 (114th in the country) Average Yards Per Game: 321.2 (110th in the country) Average Points Allowed Per Game: 27.6 (69th in the country) Average Total Offense Allowed Per Game: 405 (86th in the country) Overall Success Rate: 3-3 (2-4 ATS) Key Injury: Quarterback Tai Lavatai (Ribs Injury) – questionable Sack from @DemonClowney 😈 #BadCompany ⛏️ | #AmericanPower pic.twitter.com/7HV9nvu4oH

Air Force Flying High Despite Injury; Navy Struggling to Defend the Run

Air Force has been a dominant presence this season, with an undefeated record and ranking 1st in average rushing yards per game with 326.6. Navy, on the other hand, has suffered losses in two of their three meetings with the Falcons against the spread and has lost all three games ATS at home this season. They have also lost five consecutive games, with two of those losses coming against the spread. Despite Air Force's injury to their starting quarterback, the Midshipmen have not demonstrated their ability to defend the run against weaker opponents, ranking 86th in average rushing yards allowed per game. It is therefore likely that Air Force will be successful in their upcoming trip to Naval-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium and will take the win.

Written by Mikehuff Published on 10/18/2023 Category: NCAAF Picks

About the Author: My Philosophy of "picking our battles and not the board" is what consistently gives me profit year over year. Join me this season for NFL, NCAAF, NBA and NCAAB hoops.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

Unavailable for this preview

Projected winnerUnavailableConfidencelow
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Published pick: Unavailable

Pick on the Total

Published pick: Unavailable

#AirForceFalcons#NavyMidshipmen

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Written by

SportsJaw Editorial Team

SportsJaw published this archived preview from its original game-day article. Its prediction and quoted lines are preserved as written.

About our editorial process

SportsJaw Falcons vs Midshipmen archived game preview contains historical odds and availability that may no longer be current. View history of past Falcons vs Midshipmen matchups or learn how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · Air Force Falcons-455 → -428Moved
  • Moneyline · Navy Midshipmen+325 → +330Moved
  • Spread · Air Force Falcons-10 (-110) → -10.5 (-110)Moved
  • Spread · Navy Midshipmen+10 (-110) → +10.5 (-110)Moved
  • Total · Over37.5 (-110) → 34.25 (-110)Moved
  • Total · Under37.5 (-110) → 34.25 (-110)Moved

ATS and O/U trends

Air Force Falcons
5-0 matchup record · 6-4-0 ATS · 6-4-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file
Navy Midshipmen
2-2 matchup record · 5-5-0 ATS · 6-4-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2023-10-15T22:36:00.883Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

The Air Force Falcons remained undefeated in 2023, defeating the Wyoming Cowboys 34-27 on Saturday. Down 21-17 at halftime, the Falcons completed their comeback with a 58-yard rushing touchdown from John Lee Eldridge III with 2:17 remaining in the game. Air Force outgained the Cowboys 414 yards to 321, with 356 of their yards coming from the ground. Quarterback Zac Larrier was responsible for 111 rushing yards and 58 passing yards with a touchdown, but was pulled from the game with a knee injury. Senior Jensen Jones was called off the bench and finished the game. Air Force ranks an impressive 13th in the nation in average points scored per game with 36, and 50th in average yards per game with 403. They have an elite defense, ranking 12th by allowing an average of 16.2 points per game to their opponents and 4th in the country for average yards allowed per game with 256.8. With a power ranking of 22, Air Force is ranked 15th in offense, 8th in defense, and are 6-0 (3-3 ATS) so far this season. Key Injuries: Quarterback Zac Larrier is out indefinitely with a knee issue sustained last week. TO THE HOUSE 💥 @Jleptt2901 pic.twitter.com/mGstak30uT

The Navy Midshipmen had a successful weekend, winning their second straight game with a shutout 14-0 victory over Charlotte 49ers. Freshman quarterback Braxton Woodson threw for 85 yards and a 69-yard touchdown to running back Eli Heidenreich in the third quarter, while running back Alex Tecza contributed 75 yards and a 62-yard touchdown. The Midshipmen defense put together a solid performance and did not allow a turnover, recovering a fumble and picking off the Charlotte quarterback twice. Average Points Per Game: 19.6 (114th in the country) Average Yards Per Game: 321.2 (110th in the country) Average Points Allowed Per Game: 27.6 (69th in the country) Average Total Offense Allowed Per Game: 405 (86th in the country) Overall Success Rate: 3-3 (2-4 ATS) Key Injury: Quarterback Tai Lavatai (Ribs Injury) – questionable Sack from @DemonClowney 😈 #BadCompany ⛏️ | #AmericanPower pic.twitter.com/7HV9nvu4oH

Air Force has been a dominant presence this season, with an undefeated record and ranking 1st in average rushing yards per game with 326.6. Navy, on the other hand, has suffered losses in two of their three meetings with the Falcons against the spread and has lost all three games ATS at home this season. They have also lost five consecutive games, with two of those losses coming against the spread. Despite Air Force's injury to their starting quarterback, the Midshipmen have not demonstrated their ability to defend the run against weaker opponents, ranking 86th in average rushing yards allowed per game. It is therefore likely that Air Force will be successful in their upcoming trip to Naval-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium and will take the win.

Recent head-to-head

  • 2022-10-01Navy Midshipmen 10 · Air Force Falcons 13
  • 2021-09-11Air Force Falcons 23 · Navy Midshipmen 3
Final result

Matchup pick recap

Air Force Falcons defeated Navy Midshipmen 17-6

Air Force Falcons defeated Navy Midshipmen 17-6 on October 21, 2023, a 11-point decision in the series. Air Force Falcons' strongest period was the 2nd quarter, when it outscored its opponent 7-0. Against SportsJaw's recorded Air Force Falcons -10.5 (-110) spread, Air Force Falcons covered, while the 23 combined points finished under the recorded total of 34.25.

SportsJaw editorial picks

  • Projected winnerNo published selectionUnavailable

Tipster picks

  • DengWinsTotal · Over 37.5 (-110)Loss
  • BooksworstnightmareSpread · Air Force Falcons -10 (-110)Win
  • CoversSpread · Air Force Falcons -10 (-110)Win
  • CoolioSpread · Air Force Falcons -10.5 (-110)Win
  • CoolioTotal · Over 33.5 (-110)Loss
  • OddssharkSpread · Air Force Falcons -10.5 (-110)Win
  • OddssharkTotal · Over 33.5 (-110)Loss