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NCAAF PicksSat 8:00 PM ET
Navy Midshipmen logo
Navy
Midshipmen
2-3
versus
UTSA Roadrunners logo
UTSA
Roadrunners
5-1
NCAAF · NAVY at UTSA

Your Picks on Navy vs UTSA

Picks close 15 minutes before game time (ET)
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Moneyline
Total

Navy vs UTSA consensus picks

NAVY33%
67%UTSA

Navy Midshipmen vs UTSA Roadrunners Predictions October 17, 2026

Game time: October 17, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET

Venue: Alamodome — San Antonio, TX

Article updated Oct 12, 9:44 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

UTSA will beat Navy, 31-27, in our October 17 forecast, with its recent balance between rushing and passing supplying the strongest matchup reason. Navy’s explosive production against Tulsa makes this a low-confidence prediction, however. Neither UTSA -6.5 (-115), Navy +6.5 (-102) nor the 54.5 total offers a demonstrated betting edge, so the official recommendation is Pass.

Navy Midshipmen vs UTSA Roadrunners prediction and best bet

UTSA gets the narrow edge because its latest win featured substantial production through both the ground game and the passing game. That gives the Roadrunners more than one plausible route to the deciding touchdown. Navy’s recent offensive performance keeps the projected margin at four points.

The official betting recommendation is Pass. A competitive game is a reasonable forecast, but backing Navy with the points requires more conviction about this specific matchup than either team’s latest result supplies. Picking UTSA to win also leaves a separate question about its ability to cover.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Game: Navy Midshipmen at UTSA Roadrunners, 2026 college football season, Saturday, October 17.

Kickoff: 7 p.m. CDT, equivalent to 8 p.m. EDT.

Venue: Alamodome.

Broadcast: ESPNU; Navy Radio Network also carries the game.

Record: UTSA reached 5-1 overall and 2-0 in American Conference play with its October 8 victory.

SportsJaw moneyline: Navy +210; UTSA -250. Spread: Navy +6.5 (-102); UTSA -6.5 (-115). Total: Over 54.5 (-115); Under 54.5 (-105).

Navy Midshipmen outlook

Navy beat Tulsa 34-26 on October 10 after falling behind 26-14 early in the third quarter. The Midshipmen finished with 386 rushing yards and 481 total yards. That comeback is the strongest recent argument against expecting an easy UTSA victory: Navy kept producing even after putting itself in a difficult position.

Jackson Gutierrez carried 41 times for a career-high 232 yards and three touchdowns. He also completed five of seven passes for 95 yards and a touchdown. Truman Brasfield caught a 58-yard scoring pass, giving Navy a touchdown reception of at least 50 yards from Brasfield in consecutive games.

The concern is ball security. Navy committed four turnovers against Tulsa. Repeating those mistakes would make another comeback harder to trust, even with an offense that just demonstrated considerable scoring potential.

UTSA Roadrunners outlook

UTSA defeated South Florida 31-24 on October 8, producing 486 total yards, including 277 rushing yards. Owen McCown completed 22 of 31 passes for 209 yards and contributed another 52 yards rushing. His passing production gives the Roadrunners a useful complement to their ground game.

A'Marion Peterson added 92 yards on 12 carries and matched a school record with three rushing touchdowns. Those numbers show his impact against South Florida without establishing how effectively he will finish drives against Navy.

The most persuasive part of UTSA’s performance came after halftime. The Roadrunners outgained South Florida 271-87 and rushed for 174 yards in the second half. That combination of offensive output and reduced opponent production supports the winner selection, although one strong half is a narrow foundation.

Key matchup factors

The central question is how much each rushing performance carries over against a different opponent. Both offenses enter with productive recent games, but neither result measures the opposing defense they will face here. Navy’s limited passing volume also should not obscure the damage Brasfield delivered on one completion.

As of October 12 at 13:38 UTC, the SportsJaw blended moneyline consensus favored UTSA -250 at 67%. The sportsbook component also favored UTSA at 67%; no separate SportsJaw member percentage was reported. That is a selection share, not a 67% win probability or evidence of spread value.

Navy Midshipmen vs UTSA Roadrunners spread prediction

Spread recommendation: Pass on Navy +6.5 (-102) and UTSA -6.5 (-115). The projected four-point margin favors Navy relative to the line, but an estimated score alone is too fragile a reason to make the underdog an official wager.

Navy’s turnovers create a clear risk to taking the points. UTSA’s strong second half offers a plausible path to a wider margin, while Navy’s comeback supplies the counterargument. With those competing signals, neither side earns a bet at the supplied price.

Navy Midshipmen vs UTSA Roadrunners total prediction

Total recommendation: Pass on Over 54.5 (-115) and Under 54.5 (-105). The forecast totals 58 points, placing the editorial projection above the line. Both offenses recently produced enough yardage to make that scoring outcome plausible.

The uncertainty is how those yards translate into possessions and points against these opponents. Recent scoring encourages an Over lean, but the evidence is too limited to price that lean confidently. There is no stronger case for an Under wager.

Navy Midshipmen vs UTSA Roadrunners projected score

Game forecast: UTSA Roadrunners 31, Navy Midshipmen 27. UTSA’s recent offensive balance earns the selection; Navy’s rushing production and comeback are the strongest counterarguments. Confidence is low because the matchup judgment rests heavily on one recent game per team. The official SportsJaw wager is Pass, with both the spread and total left alone.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

NAVY27

UTSA31

Projected winner UTSA RoadrunnersConfidenceSlight Lean — Navy Midshipmen
Pick on the Spread

Slight Lean — Navy Midshipmen +6.5

Editorial pick at publication: Pass on Navy Midshipmen +6.5 (-102) and UTSA Roadrunners -6.5 (-115).

Pick on the Total

Slight Lean — Over 55

Editorial pick at publication: Pass (article line changed)

Sources

  • UTSA AthleticsPrevious-game context: Late touchdown lifts Roadrunners to 31-24 win over South Florida
  • Naval Academy AthleticsPrevious-game context: Gutierrez Rushes for 232 Yards, Leads Navy to 34-26 Comeback Win Over Tulsa

SportsJaw Midshipmen vs Roadrunners game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Midshipmen vs Roadrunners matchups or learn how our predictions work.

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