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  2. NCAAF Picks
  3. Arizona St. Sun Devils vs Texas Tech Red Raiders
Sat 3:30 PM ET
Arizona St. Sun Devils logo
Arizona St.
Sun Devils25
3-2
versus
Texas Tech Red Raiders logo
Texas Tech
Red Raiders53
5-0
Final
Team1234T
Arizona St. Sun Devils737825
Texas Tech Red Raiders212201053
NCAAF · Arizona St. Sun Devils at Texas Tech Red Raiders

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Arizona St. Sun Devils vs Texas Tech Red Raiders Prediction, Odds and Best Bet

Game time: October 17, 2026 at 3:30 PM ET

Venue: Jones AT&T Stadium — Lubbock, TX

Article updated Oct 17, 9:11 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

Texas Tech will beat Arizona State, with a projected score of Texas Tech 31, Arizona State 17. The Red Raiders’ sustained success in Big 12 play gives them the strongest matchup advantage, reinforced by 11 consecutive home wins. However, laying 15.5 points leaves too much room for Arizona State’s productive playmakers to affect the outcome against the spread. The official betting recommendation is Pass.

Arizona St. Sun Devils vs Texas Tech Red Raiders prediction and best bet

Texas Tech is the pick to win this October 17, 2026 college football matchup, with medium confidence. Its unbeaten start and extended conference winning streak make a convincing case for a home victory. The betting decision is less clear: neither Texas Tech -15.5 (-110) nor Arizona State +15.5 (-110) offers a strong enough edge for an official wager.

The distinction is the margin. Texas Tech has won eight consecutive Big 12 games, counting its 2025 conference-championship victory over BYU. Those wins averaged a 28.3-point margin, with just one decided by one possession. That history favors the Red Raiders, but Arizona State’s receiving production and Will Hammond’s interceptions complicate a bet requiring another decisive result.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Game time: Saturday, October 17, 2026, at 2:30 p.m. CDT.

Location: Lubbock, Texas. Texas Tech’s Homecoming game was announced as a sellout.

Broadcast: FOX.

Records: Arizona St. Sun Devils 3-2; Texas Tech Red Raiders 5-0.

SportsJaw spread and moneyline: Arizona State +15.5 (-110) and +500; Texas Tech -15.5 (-110) and -700.

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

SportsJaw total: Over 50 (-110) and Under 50 (-110).

Arizona St. Sun Devils outlook

Arizona State beat Hawai'i 30-12 on October 10, with Cardae Mack contributing 154 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 13 carries. That performance gives the Sun Devils a reason to keep the running game involved, even against a favorite expected to lead. Another productive outing would reduce the pressure to answer Texas Tech entirely through the air.

Reed Harris offers a more sustained source of optimism. Through five games, he led Arizona State with 34 receptions, 590 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. Against Hawai'i, he caught eight passes for 91 yards and two scores. His season production makes him central to the Sun Devils’ chances of converting possessions into touchdowns.

The challenge is translating those contributions into a competitive road performance. Mack’s latest game is encouraging, while Harris has delivered across the opening five games. Neither alone guarantees that Arizona State can match Texas Tech over four quarters.

Texas Tech Red Raiders outlook

Texas Tech’s latest result was a 29-7 victory at Colorado, securing its second consecutive 5-0 start. Winning that comfortably on the road strengthens the forecast beyond the appeal of a Homecoming crowd. The Red Raiders enter this matchup with both current results and a longer conference record in their favor.

Hammond’s passing numbers carry the main caution. Through five games, he completed 97 of 142 attempts for 1,102 yards, five touchdowns and five interceptions. The yardage is useful production, but matching touchdowns with interceptions introduces risk when Texas Tech must win by at least 16 points to cover.

J'Koby Williams had 373 rushing yards and three touchdowns through five games, while Kenny Johnson had 298 receiving yards. Their contributions give Texas Tech options around Hammond. Keeping those players involved would help the favorite avoid relying entirely on its quarterback to build the required margin.

Key matchup factors

Possession swings matter more to the spread than to the straight-up forecast. Texas Tech can survive an uneven stretch and still win, but an interception that gives Arizona State a scoring opportunity could erase the favorite’s covering margin. Harris’ touchdown production makes that a meaningful concern.

SportsJaw’s spread consensus is divided. The community favors Arizona State +15.5 (-110) at 67%, and qualified handicappers favor that side at 60%. The sportsbook measure favors Texas Tech -15.5 (-110) at 64%, while the blend favors Texas Tech at 58%.

The combined consensus count is 606 equivalent selections, with 351 for Texas Tech and 255 for Arizona State. It combines a modeled sportsbook sample with SportsJaw participation, rather than representing observed sportsbook tickets. The overall update was October 17 at 13:08 UTC; the reported day-over-day shift was one percentage point toward Arizona State.

Arizona St. Sun Devils vs Texas Tech Red Raiders spread prediction

Spread recommendation: Pass on Texas Tech -15.5 (-110) and Arizona State +15.5 (-110). The projected 14-point margin falls on Arizona State’s side of the number, but a 1.5-point difference between the forecast and spread is too fragile to make the underdog an official selection.

Texas Tech’s conference margins are the strongest argument for laying the points. Hammond’s interceptions, Harris’ production and the divided consensus are reasons to resist that wager. The favorite has the better winning case, while the spread leaves a much closer decision.

Arizona St. Sun Devils vs Texas Tech Red Raiders total prediction

Total recommendation: Pass on Over 50 (-110) and Under 50 (-110). The forecast totals 48 points, only two below the line. One additional scoring opportunity could reverse that direction, so the projected score offers little betting cushion.

SportsJaw’s community total reading favors Over 49.5 (-110) at 100%, timestamped October 14. That is an earlier, different line from the current 50, and there is no accompanying sportsbook or blended total reading. It should not be treated as agreement across multiple betting indicators.

Arizona St. Sun Devils vs Texas Tech Red Raiders Projected Score & Betting Picks

Game forecast: Texas Tech 31, Arizona State 17. The Red Raiders’ conference results and home winning streak support a comfortable victory. The strongest counterargument is that Hammond’s turnovers could give Arizona State opportunities to keep the game closer, particularly with Harris producing consistently.

Confidence is medium in the Texas Tech win. The forecast stops short of a cover, and its total sits close to 50. The single official SportsJaw betting recommendation is Pass.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

Sun Devils17

Red Raiders31

Projected winner Texas Tech Red RaidersConfidencemedium
Pick on the Spread

Published pick: Pass (article line changed)

Pick on the Total

Published pick: Pass (article line changed)

Sources

  • Texas Tech Red RaidersNo. 10 Texas Tech hosts Arizona State for Homecoming
  • Sun Devil AthleticsFootball returns to Texas to take on No. 10 Texas Tech
#ArizonaStSunDevils#TexasTechRedRaiders

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Written by

SportsJaw Editorial Team

SportsJaw's editorial organization researches matchup data, current odds, injuries and reporting, then validates each published preview against its listed sources and displayed markets.

About our editorial process

SportsJaw Sun Devils vs Red Raiders game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Sun Devils vs Red Raiders matchups or learn how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · Arizona St. Sun Devils+385 → +575Moved
  • Moneyline · Texas Tech Red Raiders-520 → -825Moved
  • Spread · Arizona St. Sun Devils+12.5 (-113) → +16.5 (-105)Moved
  • Spread · Texas Tech Red Raiders-12.5 (-113) → -16.5 (-115)Moved
  • Total · Over50.5 (-117) → 50.5 (-108)Moved
  • Total · Under50.5 (-117) → 50.5 (-110)Moved

ATS and O/U trends

Arizona St. Sun Devils
3-2 matchup record · 5-5-0 ATS · 6-4-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file
Texas Tech Red Raiders
5-0 matchup record · 6-4-0 ATS · 4-6-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2026-10-11T12:48:43.061Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

No verified injury or availability note was included in the published matchup research.

Recent head-to-head

  • 2025-10-18Texas Tech Red Raiders 22 · Arizona St. Sun Devils 26
  • 2024-09-21Arizona St. Sun Devils 22 · Texas Tech Red Raiders 30
Final result

Matchup pick recap

Texas Tech Red Raiders defeated Arizona St. Sun Devils 53-25

Texas Tech Red Raiders defeated Arizona St. Sun Devils 53-25 on October 17, 2026, a 28-point decision in the series. Texas Tech Red Raiders' strongest period was the 2nd quarter, when it outscored its opponent 22-3. Against SportsJaw's recorded Arizona St. Sun Devils +16.5 (-105) spread, Texas Tech Red Raiders covered, while the 78 combined points finished over the recorded total of 50.5.

SportsJaw editorial picks

  • Projected winnerTexas Tech Red RaidersWin
  • SpreadPass on Texas Tech Red Raiders -15.5 (-110) and Arizona St. Sun Devils +15.5 (-110)Pass
  • TotalPass on Over 50 (-110) and Under 50 (-110)Pass

Tipster picks

  • DtownsendSpread · Texas Tech Red Raiders -14.5 (-110)Win
  • HopkinspicksSpread · Arizona St. Sun Devils +14.5 (-108)Loss
  • MbcSpread · Texas Tech Red Raiders -14.5 (-110)Win
  • KingjamesTotal · Over 48.5 (-110)Win
  • JtmcentireSpread · Arizona St. Sun Devils +15.5 (-110)Loss
  • MtgoldsteinSpread · Arizona St. Sun Devils +15.5 (-110)Loss
  • Amp2224Spread · Arizona St. Sun Devils +15.5 (-110)Loss