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NCAAF PicksSat 3:30 PM ET
Arizona St. Sun Devils logo
Arizona St.
Sun Devils
3-2
versus
Texas Tech Red Raiders logo
Texas Tech
Red Raiders
5-0
NCAAF · ARIZST at TXTECH

Your Picks on Arizona St. vs Texas Tech

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Arizona St. Sun Devils vs Texas Tech Red Raiders Predictions October 17, 2026

Game time: October 17, 2026 at 3:30 PM ET

Venue: Jones AT&T Stadium — Lubbock, TX

Article updated Oct 11, 8:48 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

Texas Tech is projected to beat Arizona State 27-20 on October 17, with its unbeaten start, 29-7 road win at Colorado and bye week giving the Red Raiders the stronger winning case. Arizona State’s productive receiving threat and emerging freshman runner complicate the margin. Neither Texas Tech -12.5 (-113) nor the 50.5 total offers a demonstrated betting edge; the official recommendation is Pass.

Arizona St. Sun Devils vs Texas Tech Red Raiders prediction and best bet

Texas Tech is the pick to win, but laying 12.5 points asks more than this matchup warrants. The Red Raiders entered their open week at 5-0, and their latest reported result gives the forecast a solid starting point. The winning margin is the less convincing part of the favorite’s case.

Arizona State followed a 55-19 home loss to Baylor with a 30-12 victory over Hawai'i on October 10. That rebound and the Sun Devils’ individual playmakers make a competitive game plausible. The best betting decision is Pass, with a low-confidence forecast of Texas Tech 27, Arizona State 20.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Game: Arizona St. Sun Devils at Texas Tech Red Raiders, 2026 college football season.

Kickoff: October 17, 2026, at 12:30 p.m. MST.

Broadcast: FOX.

Records: Texas Tech entered its bye at 5-0. Arizona State was 2-2 overall and 1-1 in Big 12 play before its October 10 win over Hawai'i.

SportsJaw spread: Arizona State +12.5 (-113); Texas Tech -12.5 (-113).

SportsJaw total: Over 50.5 (-117); Under 50.5 (-117). Moneyline: Arizona State +385; Texas Tech -520.

Arizona St. Sun Devils outlook

Reed Harris gives Arizona State its clearest established offensive strength. Through games played October 3, he led the Big 12 with 499 receiving yards and 124.8 per game. His yardage total was a program record through four games. That production makes him central to the Sun Devils’ chances of keeping pace.

Freshman running back Cardae Mack supplied the decisive burst against Hawai'i, scoring twice, including a 67-yard touchdown in the final minute of the third quarter. His scoring drive included runs of 4, 9, 16 and 67 yards, with one incomplete pass attempt. It was an encouraging rushing sequence, although one performance should not become an assumption of weekly dominance.

There was also a substantial offensive lull. Following an approximately 40-minute halftime weather delay, Arizona State gained only 24 total yards over its first three second-half possessions. Mack’s breakthrough helped rescue that stretch, but the uneven production is a reason to temper expectations on the road.

Texas Tech Red Raiders outlook

Texas Tech’s October 5 snapshot was straightforward: 5-0 under head coach Joey McGuire and quarterback Will Hammond, following a 29-7 victory at Colorado. Winning that road game by 22 points supports choosing the Red Raiders at home, even without projecting another comfortable margin.

The bye also gives Texas Tech a scheduling advantage over an opponent that played October 10. Extra preparation is a reasonable positive for the forecast, but its value in points is uncertain. The Colorado score alone cannot tell us how Hammond will fare against Arizona State or how consistently Texas Tech will contain Harris and Mack.

Key matchup factors

Arizona State’s early defensive passing numbers offer some resistance to an easy Texas Tech scoring projection. Through four games, the Sun Devils allowed 201.0 passing yards per game, with opponents completing 70 of 125 attempts, or 56.0 percent. Those figures precede the Hawai'i game and should be read as an early-season baseline.

Short-yardage execution could help Arizona State sustain possessions. Through four games, it converted 9 of 14 third- or fourth-down attempts needing one or two yards, a 64.3 percent rate. Reaching those manageable situations is the key condition. A close game becomes more plausible if the Sun Devils can extend drives without repeatedly relying on a long touchdown.

Arizona St. Sun Devils vs Texas Tech Red Raiders spread prediction

Spread recommendation: Pass on Texas Tech -12.5 (-113) and Arizona State +12.5 (-113). The projected seven-point margin favors the underdog against the number, but the forecast is too uncertain to turn that difference into an official Arizona State wager.

Texas Tech has the better winning case, while Arizona State’s receiving production and recent rushing breakthrough argue for caution about a runaway. The Sun Devils’ heavy Baylor defeat is the strongest warning against taking the points. Neither side offers a sufficiently convincing edge at -113.

Arizona St. Sun Devils vs Texas Tech Red Raiders total prediction

Total recommendation: Pass on Over 50.5 (-117) and Under 50.5 (-117). The projected score totals 47 points, giving the forecast an Under direction without making Under an actionable bet.

Arizona State’s explosive plays and stalled possessions pull expectations in different directions. Texas Tech’s 29-7 Colorado result adds one lower-scoring outcome, rather than a dependable scoring pattern. With that uncertainty, the gap between 47 projected points and the supplied total is not persuasive enough to pay -117.

Arizona St. Sun Devils vs Texas Tech Red Raiders projected score

Game forecast: Texas Tech 27, Arizona State 20. The Red Raiders’ unbeaten start, road result at Colorado and open week earn the winner selection. Arizona State’s productive offensive personnel provide the strongest counterargument and keep the projected margin below the spread.

Confidence: low, reflecting uncertainty about the matchup and margin. Both market recommendations are passes. The single official SportsJaw betting lean is Pass.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

ARIZST20

TXTECH27

Projected winner Texas Tech Red RaidersConfidenceModerate Lean — Arizona St. Sun Devils
Pick on the Spread

Moderate Lean — Arizona St. Sun Devils +13.5

Editorial pick at publication: Pass (article line changed)

Pick on the Total

Slight Lean — Under 50.5

Editorial pick at publication: Pass on Over 50.5 (-117) and Under 50.5 (-117)

Sources

  • Arizona SportsStart time, channel announced for ASU football's matchup with ranked Texas Tech
  • Sun Devil AthleticsFootball continues home stand against Hawai'i
  • Arizona SportsPrevious-game context: Cardae Mack emerges as ASU grinds out win against Hawaii through weather delay

SportsJaw Sun Devils vs Red Raiders game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Sun Devils vs Red Raiders matchups or learn how our predictions work.

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