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  1. Home
  2. NCAAF Picks
  3. Missouri Tigers vs Mississippi Rebels
Sat 3:30 PM ET
Missouri Tigers logo
Missouri
Tigers3
5-1
versus
Mississippi Rebels logo
Mississippi
Rebels31
3-1
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Team1234T
Missouri Tigers30003
Mississippi Rebels71401031
NCAAF · Missouri Tigers at Mississippi Rebels

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Missouri Tigers vs Mississippi Rebels prediction, odds and best bet for Oct. 17, 2026

Game time: October 17, 2026 at 3:30 PM ET

Venue: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium — Oxford, MS

Article updated Oct 17, 9:06 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

Missouri will beat Mississippi 31-27 in our forecast for October 17, with Jamal Roberts’ rushing production giving the Tigers their strongest advantage against the Rebels’ vulnerable run defense. Missouri +5.5 (-110) is the official spread wager at the supplied SportsJaw price. Confidence is medium, with Ole Miss’ recent defensive improvement a meaningful concern. Pass on the total of 58.5 (-110).

Missouri Tigers vs Mississippi Rebels prediction and best bet

Missouri’s case starts with a favorable matchup on the ground and extends to its ability to defend the run. That combination makes the Tigers an appealing underdog, even against a higher-ranked Ole Miss team playing at home. The forecast is a Missouri upset, with Missouri +5.5 (-110) the best bet.

The spread offers room for the outright prediction to miss narrowly. A Missouri loss by five points or fewer would still cash the ticket. That protection matters because the Rebels bring a productive quarterback and a defense that showed improvement in its last game. This is a supported edge, with enough resistance to keep confidence at medium.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Game: Missouri Tigers at Mississippi Rebels, 2026 college football season.

Kickoff: Saturday, October 17, 2026, at 2:30 p.m. CT, according to the official Ole Miss previews.

Venue: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, Mississippi.

Broadcast: SEC Network.

Records and rankings: No. 13 Missouri is 5-1 overall and 2-1 in SEC play. No. 9 Ole Miss is 4-1 overall and 2-1 in the SEC.

SportsJaw odds: Missouri Tigers +4 (-110); Mississippi Rebels -4 (-108). Moneyline: Missouri Tigers +155; Mississippi Rebels -180. Total: Over 57.5 (-108); Under 57.5 (-110).

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

Missouri Tigers outlook

Jamal Roberts entered the matchup with 828 rushing yards, leading the SEC and ranking second nationally in the October 13 Ole Miss preview. He had surpassed 200 rushing yards in each of his previous two games and scored five touchdowns across those outings. His recent production gives Missouri a clear starting point for its offense.

The passing game adds another threat. Austin Simmons had 1,434 passing yards and 14 touchdown passes through five games, while Cayden Lee led Missouri with 616 receiving yards and five touchdowns. The Tigers averaged 35.8 points per game. Those numbers suggest Ole Miss will need more than a crowded defensive front to contain this offense.

Missouri also allowed 17.7 points per game and ranked eighth nationally in rushing defense at 78.3 yards allowed per game. Personnel is the concern: the October 16 availability report listed offensive linemen Josh Atkins and Khalief Canty and running backs Malai Fonoti and Ahmad Hardy as out. Lee was probable, while linebacker Robert Woodyard and defensive tackle Sterling Webb were questionable. Those absences and uncertainties temper the advantage suggested by the season statistics.

Mississippi Rebels outlook

Trinidad Chambliss gives Mississippi a credible answer if Missouri takes away the running game. He had 1,435 passing yards and 11 total touchdowns through five games, including three touchdown passes in the October 10 victory over Vanderbilt. Caleb Odom had 17 receptions, tied for second on the team, giving the Rebels another established receiving contributor.

The defense’s latest performance deserves attention. Ole Miss held Vanderbilt to 103 rushing yards, its lowest allowance of the season. The Rebels also collected four turnovers, three sacks and eight tackles for loss. That effort offers a stronger counterargument to the Missouri pick than the home setting alone.

The longer view remains less encouraging: Ole Miss allowed 176.4 rushing yards per game, ranking 111th in FBS. Its October 16 availability report also listed offensive linemen Jalen Chapman, Emmanuel Faulkner and Enoch Wangoy as out, along with linebacker Ant Davis and defensive backs Edwin Joseph and Nascar McCoy. Tight end Hayden Bradley was questionable. The forecast gives the recent defensive improvement weight without assuming it has erased the season’s weakness.

Key matchup factors

The central question is whether Missouri can keep its offense in manageable situations. Successful early-down runs would allow the Tigers to choose when to throw. If Ole Miss instead creates tackles for loss and obvious passing situations, its pressure could become more influential than the rushing mismatch.

Turnovers are the biggest threat to that Missouri script. The Rebels’ four takeaways against Vanderbilt show how quickly their defense can change possession. Repeating that result would make an upset much harder, but one game is too narrow a foundation to project another four-takeaway afternoon.

Missouri’s rushing defense shifts attention toward Chambliss and the passing game. A strong run-defense ranking alone does not guarantee success against an opposing quarterback. The Tigers still need to finish possessions defensively, especially if their own offense encounters trouble behind a line with reported absences.

Missouri Tigers vs Mississippi Rebels spread prediction

Spread pick: Missouri Tigers +5.5 (-110). Roberts’ production against the Rebels’ season-long rushing vulnerability is the strongest reason to take the points. Mississippi -5.5 (-104) requires a win by at least six, a margin that looks demanding against Missouri’s scoring and defensive profile.

SportsJaw’s spread snapshot, updated October 17 at 08:56 UTC, lists Missouri +5.5 (-114) as the community leader at 80 percent. The qualified-handicapper view also favors that selection at 80 percent. These are separate pick preferences, not an 80 percent chance of covering. The official wager uses the supplied SportsJaw price of +5.5 (-110), distinct from the consensus display price.

Missouri Tigers vs Mississippi Rebels total prediction

Total recommendation: Pass on 58.5, with Over and Under both priced at -110. The projected 58 points sit only half a point below the line. That is too small a cushion to make Under the official wager, particularly with both quarterbacks bringing meaningful passing production.

SportsJaw’s community and qualified-handicapper views each favor Under 58.5 (-110) at 67 percent. Missouri’s rushing approach could help that outcome by consuming time, but offensive efficiency or short fields could offset fewer possessions. The spread has the more persuasive matchup case.

Missouri Tigers vs Mississippi Rebels Projected Score & Betting Picks

Game forecast: Missouri Tigers 31, Mississippi Rebels 27. Missouri gets the nod because its running game can attack the clearest defensive weakness in this matchup. The strongest counterargument is Ole Miss sustaining its improved run defense while Chambliss produces enough through the air to protect home field.

Confidence: Medium. Missouri is the projected winner, but the Rebels have credible ways to overturn that call. The single official SportsJaw wager is the spread, Missouri Tigers +5.5 (-110). The total remains a Pass at 58.5 (-110).

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

Tigers31

Rebels27

Projected winner Missouri TigersConfidencemedium
Pick on the Spread

Published pick: Spread: Missouri Tigers +5.5 (-110)

Pick on the Total

Published pick: Pass on total 58.5: Over (-110), Under (-110)

Sources

  • Ole Miss AthleticsFootball vs. Missouri: First Look
  • Ole Miss AthleticsFootball vs. Missouri: What to Watch For
  • Ole Miss 365Availability list for Saturday's battle
#MissouriTigers#MississippiRebels

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Written by

SportsJaw Editorial Team

SportsJaw's editorial organization researches matchup data, current odds, injuries and reporting, then validates each published preview against its listed sources and displayed markets.

About our editorial process

SportsJaw Tigers vs Rebels game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Tigers vs Rebels matchups or learn how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · Missouri Tigers+233 → +155Moved
  • Moneyline · Mississippi Rebels-233 → -180Moved
  • Spread · Missouri Tigers+7.5 (-122) → +4 (-110)Moved
  • Spread · Mississippi Rebels-7.5 (-102) → -4 (-108)Moved
  • Total · Over58.5 (-117) → 57.5 (-108)Moved
  • Total · Under58.5 (-108) → 57.5 (-110)Moved

ATS and O/U trends

Missouri Tigers
5-1 matchup record · 5-5-0 ATS · 4-6-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file
Mississippi Rebels
3-1 matchup record · 6-4-0 ATS · 6-4-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2026-10-11T04:15:22.470Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

Missouri also allowed 17.7 points per game and ranked eighth nationally in rushing defense at 78.3 yards allowed per game. Personnel is the concern: the October 16 availability report listed offensive linemen Josh Atkins and Khalief Canty and running backs Malai Fonoti and Ahmad Hardy as out. Lee was probable, while linebacker Robert Woodyard and defensive tackle Sterling Webb were questionable. Those absences and uncertainties temper the advantage suggested by the season statistics.

The longer view remains less encouraging: Ole Miss allowed 176.4 rushing yards per game, ranking 111th in FBS. Its October 16 availability report also listed offensive linemen Jalen Chapman, Emmanuel Faulkner and Enoch Wangoy as out, along with linebacker Ant Davis and defensive backs Edwin Joseph and Nascar McCoy. Tight end Hayden Bradley was questionable. The forecast gives the recent defensive improvement weight without assuming it has erased the season’s weakness.

Recent head-to-head

No completed head-to-head result is available in the current history window.

Final result

Matchup pick recap

Mississippi Rebels defeated Missouri Tigers 31-3

Mississippi Rebels defeated Missouri Tigers 31-3 on October 17, 2026, a 28-point decision in the series. Mississippi Rebels' strongest period was the 2nd quarter, when it outscored its opponent 14-0. Against SportsJaw's recorded Missouri Tigers +4 (-110) spread, Mississippi Rebels covered, while the 34 combined points finished under the recorded total of 57.5.

SportsJaw editorial picks

  • Projected winnerMissouri TigersLoss
  • SpreadSpread: Missouri Tigers +5.5 (-110)Loss
  • TotalPass on total 58.5: Over (-110), Under (-110)Pass

Tipster picks

  • CodexSpread · Missouri Tigers +6.5 (-110)Loss
  • Sammy52Total · Under 59 (-110)Win
  • Sammy52Spread · Missouri Tigers +6 (-110)Loss
  • AveragejoeTotal · Over 59 (-110)Loss
  • TphamSpread · Mississippi Rebels -6 (-110)Win
  • SimonsaysSpread · Missouri Tigers +6 (-110)Loss
  • BjenkinsTotal · Under 58.5 (-110)Win
  • Amp2224Spread · Missouri Tigers +5.5 (-114)Loss