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NCAAF PicksSat 3:30 PM ET
Missouri Tigers logo
Missouri
Tigers
5-1
versus
Mississippi Rebels logo
Mississippi
Rebels
3-1
NCAAF · MIZZOU at O-MISS

Your Picks on Missouri vs Mississippi

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Missouri Tigers vs Mississippi Rebels Predictions October 17, 2026

Game time: October 17, 2026 at 3:30 PM ET

Venue: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium — Oxford, MS

Article updated Oct 11, 12:15 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

Mississippi will beat Missouri 31-27 in our forecast, with Trinidad Chambliss' passing and rushing production giving the Rebels the edge in Oxford. Missouri's productive ground game and recent defensive performance make the Tigers competitive enough to back against the spread. Missouri +6.5 (-110) is the strongest wager at the supplied price, though confidence is low; the total of 57.5 is a pass.

Missouri Tigers vs Mississippi Rebels prediction and best bet

The pick is Mississippi to win, with Missouri +6.5 (-110) the best bet. Chambliss gives the Rebels a credible route to victory against a Missouri defense coming off an excellent performance. His threat as both a passer and runner is the strongest reason to favor the home team.

The spread asks a different question: can Mississippi win by at least seven? Missouri's combination of Jamal Roberts on the ground and a defense that just kept Texas A&M out of the end zone makes a competitive finish a reasonable forecast. A narrow Rebels victory fits both sides of that assessment.

This is a modest edge, not a commanding one. Mississippi's four takeaways against Vanderbilt show the danger to the underdog if turnovers overwhelm Missouri's ability to sustain drives.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Game time: Saturday, Oct. 17, 2026, at 2:30 p.m. CT. Missouri visits Mississippi in this 2026 college football matchup.

Venue: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, Mississippi.

Broadcast: The Oct. 5 Ole Miss Athletics announcement named ABC, ESPN or SEC Network as possibilities, with the final assignment scheduled for the following week.

Records: Following their Oct. 10 games, Missouri is 5-1 overall and 2-1 in SEC play. Mississippi is 4-1 overall and 2-1 in the SEC.

SportsJaw spread: Missouri +6.5 (-110); Mississippi -6.5 (-110).

SportsJaw total: Over 57.5 (-114); Under 57.5 (-107). Moneyline: Missouri +195; Mississippi -245.

Missouri Tigers outlook

Missouri beat Texas A&M 27-6 on Oct. 10 behind Roberts' career-high 222 rushing yards. He carried 34 times and scored twice, recording his second consecutive game above 200 rushing yards. That workload gives Missouri a clear offensive option if the running lanes remain open in Oxford.

The defense allowed just 74 yards through three quarters and finished with 216 yards and 10 first downs conceded. Texas A&M scored no offensive touchdown. Those results make Missouri's defensive performance central to the forecast, although they came against a different offense.

Austin Simmons completed 14 of 28 passes for 147 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Missouri would benefit from avoiding a game in which he must repeatedly answer quick Mississippi scores. The concern is how the Tigers respond if Roberts' production drops and more of the offense falls to the passing game.

Mississippi Rebels outlook

Mississippi won 52-17 at Vanderbilt on Oct. 10. Chambliss completed 20 of 30 passes for 213 yards and three touchdowns, accounting for four touchdowns overall. Ole Miss' postgame notes also credited him with both a passing and rushing touchdown in four of the season's first five games.

His production has continuity: following Vanderbilt, Chambliss had a touchdown pass in 18 consecutive games and at least 20 completions in 11 straight. Those streaks strengthen the case for trusting the Rebels' quarterback, without guaranteeing another high-scoring afternoon against Missouri.

Deuce Alexander contributed five catches for 74 yards and a touchdown at Vanderbilt. Makhi Frazier added 73 rushing yards on 13 carries, his highest total in an Ole Miss uniform. Blake Purchase supplied two sacks, three tackles for loss and a forced fumble, while Antonio Kite and Nick Cull intercepted passes.

Key matchup factors

The central contest is whether Missouri can make its rushing production translate into sustained possessions. Successful carries could limit the number of times Chambliss gets the ball, but running frequently only helps if the Tigers keep moving the chains.

Mississippi's quarterback presents a different challenge from a passing-only threat. Missouri must account for his rushing contribution as well as his receivers. That extra responsibility is why the Tigers' latest defensive result should inspire respect without dictating this week's score.

Turnovers are the clearest threat to the Missouri spread pick. Extra Mississippi possessions or short fields could produce separation even if the Tigers defend well otherwise. Four takeaways in one game are a warning about the Rebels' potential, not a weekly expectation.

Missouri Tigers vs Mississippi Rebels spread prediction

Spread pick: Missouri Tigers +6.5 (-110). The Tigers can lose by six or fewer and still cover. The projected four-point defeat leaves a modest cushion, supported by Roberts' recent production and Missouri's ability to limit Texas A&M.

Mississippi -6.5 (-110) requires a touchdown-sized winning margin. The Rebels have a plausible path there if their pressure disrupts Simmons or Missouri struggles to sustain possessions. Still, backing that margin asks more of Mississippi than picking it to win. Take Missouri with the points, with low confidence.

Missouri Tigers vs Mississippi Rebels total prediction

Total recommendation: Pass on 57.5, with Over priced at -114 and Under at -107. The forecast totals 58 points, only half a point above the line. That narrow difference is too small to make the Over an attractive wager.

Mississippi's recent scoring and Chambliss' versatility pull toward a higher total; Missouri's defensive effort and potential for sustained rushing drives pull the other way. Either script is credible. Neither Over 57.5 (-114) nor Under 57.5 (-107) offers as persuasive a case as Missouri's spread.

Missouri Tigers vs Mississippi Rebels projected score

Game forecast: Mississippi Rebels 31, Missouri Tigers 27. Chambliss' consistent passing production and rushing threat give Mississippi the edge, while Roberts gives Missouri a way to remain close.

The strongest counterargument to the winner pick is Missouri's defense carrying its Oct. 10 performance into Oxford. The strongest risk to the spread wager is Mississippi generating another turnover-driven advantage. Confidence is low given those competing paths. The single official SportsJaw wager is Missouri Tigers +6.5 (-110); the total of 57.5 remains a pass.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

MIZZOU27

O-MISS31

Projected winner Mississippi RebelsConfidenceSlight Lean — Missouri Tigers
Pick on the Spread

Slight Lean — Missouri Tigers +6.5

Editorial pick at publication: Spread: Missouri Tigers +6.5 (-110)

Pick on the Total

Slight Lean — Under 58.5

Editorial pick at publication: Pass on total 57.5: Over (-114), Under (-107)

Sources

  • Ole Miss AthleticsFootball Gets Time for Missouri Game in Oxford
  • University of Missouri AthleticsPrevious-game context: No. 14 Football Smothers Texas A&M 27-6
  • Ole Miss AthleticsPrevious-game context: No. 9 Football Cruises Past Vanderbilt On The Road, 52-17

SportsJaw Tigers vs Rebels game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Tigers vs Rebels matchups or learn how our predictions work.

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