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NCAAF PicksFri 7:30 PM ET
Memphis Tigers logo
Memphis
Tigers
4-1
versus
Tulane Green Wave logo
Tulane
Green Wave
2-3
NCAAF · MEMPHS at TULANE

Your Picks on Memphis vs Tulane

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Memphis Tigers vs Tulane Green Wave Predictions October 16, 2026

Game time: October 16, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET

Venue: Yulman Stadium — New Orleans, LA

Article updated Oct 11, 11:21 PM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

Memphis is the projected winner over Tulane, 28-24, with its recent rushing production offering the strongest matchup advantage against a defense that surrendered 329 rushing yards to Army. The Tigers have the stronger record, but translating those results against different opponents into a seven-point cover is a tougher call. Neither the supplied spread nor total offers enough value for an actionable wager.

Memphis Tigers vs Tulane Green Wave prediction and best bet

Memphis gets the winner pick for this October 16 conference matchup, but the official betting recommendation is Pass. The Tigers’ convincing win over UAB gives them the stronger recent performance. Tulane’s narrow loss at Army supplies a meaningful counterargument to expecting another comfortable Memphis victory.

The distinction matters at Memphis -7 (-106). Picking the Tigers to finish ahead requires less separation than backing them to cover. A Memphis 28-24 forecast reflects an advantage for the visitors while leaving Tulane competitive. Confidence is low because the clearest statistical comparison comes from one recent game for each team.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Game: Memphis Tigers at Tulane Green Wave, a Week 7 matchup in the 2026 college football season.

Kickoff: Friday, October 16, 2026, at 7:30 PM ET.

Venue: Yulman Stadium.

Broadcast: ESPN.

Records: Memphis is 5-1 overall and 2-0 in American Conference play. Tulane is 2-3 overall and 0-1 in the conference. The conference’s top two teams qualify for its championship game.

SportsJaw spread: Memphis -7 (-106); Tulane +7 (-114). Moneyline: Memphis -250; Tulane +205. Total: Over 53.5 (-110) or Under 53.5 (-110).

Memphis Tigers outlook

Memphis beat UAB 38-13 on October 10 despite trailing 13-10 at halftime. Its 28-point second half demonstrated an ability to recover from an uneven start. That is encouraging for the winner forecast, although a comeback in one game is no guarantee of another strong finish.

Jaylin Carter supplied 132 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 19 carries. Memphis finished with 230 rushing yards and 394 total yards. Carter’s contribution makes the running game the most persuasive part of the Tigers’ case, particularly if it can give the offense manageable passing situations.

Marcus Stokes threw for 164 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. That combination complemented the rushing production against UAB. Defensively, Memphis allowed 310 total yards. The final margin was impressive, but the yardage figures offer a more measured picture than the score alone.

Tulane Green Wave outlook

Tulane lost 20-17 at Army on October 10, with a 25-yard field goal at the end of regulation deciding its conference opener. The Green Wave stayed within reach despite being outgained 348-280. That competitive result matters when evaluating whether Memphis should be expected to win by more than seven.

Kadin Semonza completed 14 of 26 passes for 158 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Destyn Hill caught five passes for 54 yards. Tulane needs more from its passing possessions in this forecast, especially if Memphis limits the opportunities to build drives on the ground.

Johnnie Daniels led Tulane with 67 rushing yards on eight carries. The Green Wave finished with 122 rushing yards while allowing 329. Those figures identify a concern entering Friday, but they describe the Army game rather than a proven season-long defensive weakness.

Key matchup factors

The most useful question is whether Memphis can turn its rushing production into a repeatable advantage against Tulane. The recent numbers point in that direction, but the opponents were different. Treating Army’s production as a direct forecast for the Tigers would put too much weight on that comparison.

Possession quality also matters. Stokes avoided interceptions against UAB, while Semonza threw one at Army. Another clean passing performance would strengthen Memphis’ chances, but those single-game results are not turnover trends.

Memphis leads the all-time series 25-16-1, while Tulane won the 2025 meeting 38-32. That history adds context without deciding the 2026 forecast. The current teams’ recent performances carry more weight here than either the series lead or last season’s result.

Memphis Tigers vs Tulane Green Wave spread prediction

Spread recommendation: Pass on Memphis -7 (-106) and Tulane +7 (-114). Memphis must win by at least eight points to cover; a seven-point victory would push. The projected four-point margin favors Tulane relative to the line, but the estimate is too uncertain to make the home underdog an official selection.

Memphis’ rushing success creates a plausible path to separation. Tulane’s close finish at Army creates an equally relevant warning about laying a full touchdown. Neither side has a sufficiently clear advantage at these prices.

Memphis Tigers vs Tulane Green Wave total prediction

Total recommendation: Pass on Over 53.5 (-110) and Under 53.5 (-110). The forecast totals 52 points, only slightly below the line. That small difference is not a strong enough reason to bet Under.

A productive Memphis rushing attack could sustain scoring drives as readily as it could consume time. The recent offensive totals offer context, but there is no supported pace or possession profile here to make either direction compelling. The total deserves its own Pass.

Memphis Tigers vs Tulane Green Wave projected score

Game forecast: Memphis Tigers 28, Tulane Green Wave 24. Memphis’ stronger record and recent offensive production earn the winner selection. Tulane’s ability to keep the Army game close despite a yardage deficit is the strongest counterargument to a decisive road win.

Confidence: Low. The Tigers have the better case to win, but the expected margin remains fragile. Both the spread and total recommendations are Pass, and the single official SportsJaw betting lean is Pass.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

MEMPHS28

TULANE24

Projected winner Memphis TigersConfidenceSlight Lean — Tulane Green Wave
Pick on the Spread

Slight Lean — Tulane Green Wave +7

Editorial pick at publication: Pass on Memphis Tigers -7 (-106) and Tulane Green Wave +7 (-114)

Pick on the Total

Slight Lean — Under 53.5

Editorial pick at publication: Pass on Over 53.5 (-110) and Under 53.5 (-110)

Sources

  • AMERICANCONFERENCE.COMemphis at Tulane: how to watch, Week 7 2026
  • University of Memphis AthleticsPrevious-game context: Tigers Score 28 Second-Half Points in Battle for the Bones Win over UAB
  • Tulane University AthleticsPrevious-game context: Football Falls 20-17 to Army in American Opener

SportsJaw Tigers vs Green Wave game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Tigers vs Green Wave matchups or learn how our predictions work.

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