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NCAAF PicksSat 3:30 PM ET
Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks logo
Tennessee-Martin
Skyhawks
1-2
versus
Tennessee St. Tigers logo
Tennessee St.
Tigers
1-4
NCAAF · UTM at TN.ST

Your Picks on Tennessee-Martin vs Tennessee St.

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Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks vs Tennessee St. Tigers Predictions October 10, 2026

Game time: October 10, 2026 at 3:30 PM ET

Venue: Nissan Stadium — Nashville, TN

Article updated Oct 7, 12:50 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

Tennessee-Martin will beat Tennessee State 27-20 in our forecast for Oct. 10. The Skyhawks’ rushing personnel face a Tigers defense that allowed 250 rushing yards in its latest game, giving Tennessee-Martin the clearest matchup advantage. Confidence is low, however, and neither the supplied 8.5-point spread nor the 46.5 total offers enough value for an actionable wager. The official pick is Pass.

Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks vs Tennessee St. Tigers prediction and best bet

Tennessee-Martin is the winner pick, with its ground game the main reason to favor the Skyhawks. Chris Franklin and Tommy Ansley present a plausible route to sustained offense against a Tennessee State defense coming off a difficult afternoon against the run. Tennessee-Martin also enters its conference opener following an open week.

The forecast is Tennessee-Martin 27, Tennessee State 20. That leaves room for the Tigers’ passing game to keep this competitive. Picking the Skyhawks to win is easier than backing either team at the supplied spread, and the official SportsJaw betting recommendation is Pass.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Game: Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks at Tennessee St. Tigers, 2026 college football season.

Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 10, 2026, at 2:30 p.m. CT.

Venue: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee.

Broadcast: ESPN+.

Records: Both teams are 1-4. Tennessee-Martin is 0-0 in Ohio Valley Conference play; Tennessee State is 0-1.

SportsJaw spread: Tennessee-Martin -8.5 (-113); Tennessee State +8.5 (-113). Moneyline: Tennessee-Martin -370; Tennessee State +265. Total: Over 46.5 (-114); Under 46.5 (-116).

Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks outlook

The Skyhawks’ 1-4 record needs some schedule context. Tennessee State’s Oct. 5 preview notes that Tennessee-Martin was the OVC preseason favorite and played consecutive September road games at West Virginia, Memphis and nationally ranked Austin Peay. Those opponents help explain the difficult start, although preseason expectations alone are no reason to lay a large spread.

Franklin leads Tennessee-Martin in rushing, and Tennessee State’s scouting account identifies Ansley as the Skyhawks’ most dependable scorer. Their contributions make the running game the natural focus of this forecast. The opportunity is clear, but projecting an advantage here is different from assuming Tennessee-Martin will reproduce Western Illinois’ rushing output.

The open week adds another favorable angle. Since 2006, Tennessee-Martin is 12-5 after a bye and 11-3 against conference opponents following a bye. Jason Simpson enters league play with 99 career OVC victories. That history supports some confidence in the preparation, while offering less guidance on the eventual winning margin.

Tennessee St. Tigers outlook

Tennessee State’s passing production gives the home side a credible response. Daylin Lee surpassed 1,000 passing yards for the season at Western Illinois on Oct. 3, recording his third game with at least 245 yards. He finished that 28-21 loss with 245 yards, two passing touchdowns and two interceptions on 22-of-42 passing, plus a rushing touchdown.

Cam Bulluck caught five passes for 54 yards and two touchdowns, while Brock Montgomery contributed six receptions for 75 yards. Tennessee State also identifies Jayden Guy as its primary downfield threat. Freshman rushing leader Brenton Paul supplied the team’s longest run of the season at Western Illinois and averaged more than five yards per attempt.

The problem was protecting a favorable position. Tennessee State led 21-10 through three quarters before surrendering 18 fourth-quarter points. The Tigers were outgained 491-318 and committed three turnovers, with giveaways on three of their final four possessions. Better ball security could change their chances substantially, but the defensive damage makes an underdog wager difficult to trust.

Key matchup factors

Early-down success should matter most. If Tennessee-Martin’s runners can repeatedly create manageable conversion opportunities, the Skyhawks can reduce how often they need difficult passing plays. Tennessee State’s task is to force those situations rather than let the visitors build drives around the matchup that looks most favorable.

The Tigers’ passing game makes a comfortable Tennessee-Martin victory less certain. Tennessee State has several receiving options contributing, and cleaner possessions would give those players more opportunities to influence the result. Turnovers are the swing factor, but last week’s mistakes should be treated as a risk rather than an inevitable repeat.

Recent rivalry results favor the Skyhawks: both previews credit Tennessee-Martin with five consecutive wins, including 26-7 in 2025. The previews disagree about which program leads the all-time series, so that historical tally carries no weight in this forecast.

Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks vs Tennessee St. Tigers spread prediction

Spread recommendation: Pass on Tennessee-Martin -8.5 (-113) and Tennessee State +8.5 (-113). The projected seven-point margin falls on the Tigers’ side of the spread, but a small difference between a forecast and the line is not enough to justify a bet.

Tennessee-Martin has the more appealing rushing matchup and recent series results. Tennessee State has enough passing production to challenge the favorite, yet its latest defensive performance and turnovers make +8.5 fragile. Neither side offers a sufficiently convincing advantage at the supplied price.

Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks vs Tennessee St. Tigers total prediction

Total recommendation: Pass on Over 46.5 (-114) and Under 46.5 (-116). The projected 47 points sit just half a point above the line, leaving virtually no cushion for an Over wager.

Tennessee State’s latest game illustrated competing possibilities: productive passing and defensive concessions can lift scoring, while turnovers can end promising possessions. The rushing matchup favors Tennessee-Martin offensively, but it does not by itself predict possession length or game tempo. There is no persuasive reason to pay either supplied price.

Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks vs Tennessee St. Tigers projected score

Game forecast: Tennessee-Martin 27, Tennessee State 20. Favor the Skyhawks to turn their rushing matchup into the deciding advantage, with the recent series results adding support.

The strongest counterargument is Tennessee State’s ability to generate passing offense and improve on its turnover-heavy finish at Western Illinois. Confidence is low: both teams are 1-4, and the clearest defensive evidence comes from one recent game. The winner pick remains Tennessee-Martin; the single official SportsJaw wager is Pass.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

UTM27

TN.ST20

Projected winner Tennessee-Martin SkyhawksConfidenceSlight Lean — Tennessee St. Tigers
Pick on the Spread

Slight Lean — Tennessee St. Tigers +8.5

Editorial pick at publication: Pass on Tennessee-Martin -8.5 (-113) and Tennessee State +8.5 (-113)

Pick on the Total

Slight Lean — Over 46.5

Editorial pick at publication: Pass on Over 46.5 (-114) and Under 46.5 (-116)

Sources

  • Ohio Valley ConferenceFootball Previews - Week 6
  • UTM AthleticsSkyhawks Opens OVC Play With Sgt. York Trophy Clash At TSU
  • Tennessee State University AthleticsOne Second Apart: Football Carries Two Late-Game Lessons Home

SportsJaw Skyhawks vs Tigers game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Skyhawks vs Tigers matchups or learn how our predictions work.

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