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NCAAF PicksSat 9:30 PM ET
Hawaii Rainbows logo
Hawaii
Rainbows
1-4
versus
Arizona St. Sun Devils logo
Arizona St.
Sun Devils
2-2
NCAAF · HAW at ARIZST

Your Picks on Hawaii vs Arizona St.

Picks close 15 minutes before game time (ET)
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Moneyline
Total

Hawaii vs Arizona St. consensus picks

HAW20%
80%ARIZST

Hawaii Rainbows vs Arizona St. Sun Devils Predictions October 10, 2026

Game time: October 10, 2026 at 9:30 PM ET

Venue: Mountain America Stadium — Tempe, AZ

Article updated Oct 5, 1:09 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

Arizona State will beat Hawaii, with a projected score of Arizona State 34, Hawaii 20. Reed Harris' receiving production gives the Sun Devils their strongest offensive argument, although both teams enter after turnover-filled losses. Hawaii's recent passing performance makes the 21.5-point cushion interesting, but neither that spread nor the 51.5 total offers a convincing wager. The official recommendation is Pass.

Hawaii Rainbows vs Arizona St. Sun Devils prediction and best bet

Arizona State is the pick to win this 2026 college football matchup on October 10, with low confidence. Harris supplies a productive receiving option, but the Sun Devils' latest performance leaves considerable doubt about the margin. Their 55-19 loss to Baylor is a meaningful counterweight to the heavy favorite's price.

The best betting decision is Pass. Hawaii has a plausible route to covering, particularly if its passing production carries over, but one competitive loss is a narrow foundation for backing the underdog. Picking Arizona State to win is easier than finding value in either team's spread.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Game time: October 10, 2026, at 7:30 p.m. Arizona time, equivalent to 4:30 p.m. Hawaii time. Both teams' official recaps identify this as their next game.

Broadcast: FS1.

Records through October 3: Hawaii is 1-4 overall and 0-3 in Mountain West play. Arizona State is 2-2 overall and 1-1 in Big 12 play.

SportsJaw odds: Hawaii +951 moneyline and +21.5 (-112); Arizona State -1,867 moneyline and -21.5 (-108). Over 51.5 and Under 51.5 are each -110.

Hawaii Rainbows outlook

Hawaii's October 3 loss to San Jose State exposed a gap between moving the ball and finishing with enough points. The Rainbows gained 438 total yards against San Jose State's 324 but lost 20-16. Two interceptions became a touchdown and a field goal for the opponent, making those mistakes especially costly.

Micah Alejado completed 23 of 35 passes for 341 yards and surpassed 5,000 career passing yards. That performance gives Hawaii a credible offensive starting point for this matchup, even though yardage alone was not enough to win.

Devin Alves caught three passes for 121 yards, including a 58-yard touchdown, Hawaii's longest play of the season through that game. His contribution illustrates a potential route to scoring without sustaining a long drive. Protecting those opportunities from turnovers is central to Hawaii's upset chances.

Arizona St. Sun Devils outlook

Arizona State struggled to keep Baylor within reach on October 3. Baylor led 21-3 less than a minute into the second quarter. After Arizona State narrowed the deficit to 21-13 late in the first half, Baylor pushed it to 38-13 early in the second half.

Harris remained productive despite the result, catching seven passes for 125 yards. Through four games, he had 26 receptions for 499 yards. That sustained production is the strongest individual reason to expect Arizona State to generate offense against Hawaii.

The Sun Devils also committed three turnovers: two fumbles and an interception. Carson Smith supplied a steadier contribution with four made field goals, extending his run to seven consecutive makes. His recent accuracy offers a way to salvage points when possessions stop short of touchdowns.

Key matchup factors

The central question is which offense can preserve its possessions. Both teams paid for mistakes in their latest losses. A cleaner game from Hawaii would make a large Arizona State margin harder to achieve; another turnover-heavy outing could erase the value of the Rainbows' passing gains.

SportsJaw's combined moneyline consensus favored Arizona State at 80% as of October 5 at 05:04 UTC, up five percentage points from the October 4 snapshot. That measures selection support, not an 80% win probability, and it is not a spread endorsement.

The teams also faced different opponents. Comparing their latest losing margins directly would overlook that distinction. Hawaii's closer result is encouraging for its competitiveness, but it should not carry the entire spread argument.

Hawaii Rainbows vs Arizona St. Sun Devils spread prediction

Pass on Hawaii +21.5 (-112) and Arizona State -21.5 (-108). The projected 14-point margin points toward Hawaii, but the forecast's precision is fragile. Arizona State's recent difficulties make laying more than three touchdowns uncomfortable.

Hawaii still needs to turn passing yards into scoring. Its latest game showed both the potential to move the ball and the risk of wasting that production. The cushion is attractive enough to discourage an Arizona State wager, without making Hawaii an official play.

Hawaii Rainbows vs Arizona St. Sun Devils total prediction

Pass on Over 51.5 (-110) and Under 51.5 (-110). The projection totals 54 points, only 2.5 above the line. That small difference is not a persuasive betting edge with this much uncertainty around scoring efficiency.

The latest games finished with 36 combined points for Hawaii and San Jose State and 74 for Arizona State and Baylor. Those contrasting outcomes leave room for very different scripts. Turnovers and the balance between touchdowns and field goals could readily shift this game across 51.5.

Hawaii Rainbows vs Arizona St. Sun Devils projected score

Game forecast: Arizona State 34, Hawaii 20. Harris' production anchors the Sun Devils' offensive case. The strongest counterargument is that Hawaii just generated substantial yardage while Arizona State suffered a lopsided defeat.

Confidence is low. Arizona State is the projected winner, but the margin remains vulnerable to either team's mistakes. The single official SportsJaw betting recommendation is Pass, with separate passes on the supplied spread and total.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

HAW20

ARIZST34

Projected winner Arizona St. Sun DevilsConfidenceStrong Lean — Hawaii Rainbows
Pick on the Spread

Strong Lean — Hawaii Rainbows +21.5

Editorial pick at publication: Pass on Hawaii Rainbows +21.5 (-112) and Arizona St. Sun Devils -21.5 (-108)

Pick on the Total

Slight Lean — Over 51.5

Editorial pick at publication: Pass on Over 51.5 (-110) and Under 51.5 (-110)

Sources

  • University of Hawai'i at Manoa AthleticsPrevious-game context: Warriors Rally Falls Short in Loss to San Jose State
  • Sun Devil AthleticsPrevious-game context: Baylor starts fast and doesn't slow down in win over Sun Devils

SportsJaw Rainbows vs Sun Devils game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Rainbows vs Sun Devils matchups or learn how our predictions work.

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