Illinois Fighting Illini vs Michigan St. Spartans Predictions October 10, 2026
Illinois is the pick to beat Michigan State 24-20, with Katin Houser and Collin Dixon supplying the stronger recent passing performance. That gives the Illini a slight edge for the October 10 matchup in East Lansing, but neither Illinois -3.5 (-101) nor the total of 49.5 offers a convincing betting advantage. The official recommendation is Pass, with low forecast confidence.
Illinois Fighting Illini vs Michigan St. Spartans prediction and best bet
Illinois gets the nod because its passing game offers a clearer route to scoring after both teams lost on October 3. The Illini scored 17 against Purdue; Michigan State scored three at Wisconsin. Those performances favor Illinois in the forecast, although games against different opponents are an imperfect comparison.
The official best bet is Pass. A projected four-point Illinois win leaves almost no cushion against Illinois -3.5 (-101). The projected 44 points lean below 49.5, but one recent game from each team is too thin a foundation for an Under wager. Picking the winner is easier than finding value at these prices.
Odds, game time and how to watch
Game: Illinois Fighting Illini at Michigan St. Spartans, 2026 college football, Saturday, October 10.
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. EDT.
Venue: Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, Michigan. This is Michigan State's Homecoming game.
Broadcast: FS1.
Records: Both teams are 2-3 overall and 0-2 in the Big Ten following October 3 losses.
SportsJaw moneyline: Illinois -165; Michigan State +140. Spread: Illinois -3.5 (-101); Michigan State +3.5 (-116). Total: Over 49.5 (-110); Under 49.5 (-108).