Alabama Crimson Tide vs
North Carolina Tar HeelsPredictions & Preview

North Carolina Set to Face Alabama in Highly Anticipated Sweet Sixteen Showdown

The Sweet Sixteen match-up from the West Region will see the #1 seed North Carolina facing off against the #4 seed Alabama Crimson Tide on Thursday, March 28. With Alabama as the nation's top-scoring team averaging 90.7 points per game, they will need to bring their A-game against the Tarheels who have also been putting up high numbers in their tournament games. Despite only meeting twice in history, with a 1-1 split record, this game is expected to be a close one. Set to take place at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, California at 6:39 PST, North Carolina opens as the betting favorite with a line of -4, currently at -4.5.

Betting Odds

• Moneyline: Crimson Tide +160 | Tar Heels -182
• Spread: Crimson Tide +4.5 (-110) | Tar Heels -4.5 (-110)
• Total: Over/Under 173.5 (-110)
• Based on the moneyline, the implied probability that North Carolina will win straight-up is 65%.

Alabama vs North Carolina Stats

Alabama Crimson Tide

The Alabama Crimson Tide is the nation's top-scoring team, averaging almost 91 points per game. However, their defense is ranked 353rd, allowing 80.9 points to their opponents. They have a record of 23-11 and have won 19 out of 15 games against the spread. The team has four double-digit scorers, led by senior Mark Sears with 21.5 points per game. The Tide's offense is efficient, shooting over 48% from the field and ranking in the top 30 for three-point shooting and free throw percentage. Defensively, they struggle, allowing opponents to shoot nearly 44% from the field. Despite their defensive weaknesses, Alabama forces turnovers and plays at a quick pace. The Tide has been profitable for over bets this season.

North Carolina Tar Heels Analysis

The North Carolina Tar Heels finished the regular season with an impressive 25-6 record, earning a 1-seed for the NCAA tournament for the 18th time. They won the ACC season title but fell to NC State in the Conference Championship game. In the NCAAs, they defeated Wagner and Michigan State, with RJ Davis and Armando Bacot leading the scoring charge. The team averages 81.8 points per game and has a positive margin of 11.8. UNC features four double-digit scorers, with RJ Davis leading the pack. They rank 9th in KenPom's adjusted efficiency margin and operate at a quick pace. On offense, they shoot 45.26% from the field and 35.81% from three-point range. Defensively, they allow 40.77% field goals and 31.69% from three-pointers. Overall, the Tar Heels are 29-7, with a power ranking of 3 and a strong playoff performance ahead.

UNC Favored Over Alabama in Sweet 16 Matchup

Alabama's journey to the Sweet 16 has been relatively smooth, facing teams from non-power conferences like the College of Charleston and Grand Canyon. While Grand Canyon is a competitive team from the West, they are not on the same level as teams from power conferences. UNC, on the other hand, had a tough match against Michigan State, showcasing their strength with a 16-point victory.

Alabama's defense was successful against Grand Canyon but may struggle against UNC, known for their strong defense ranked 6th in the nation. The Tarheels' interior strength, led by players like Armando Bacot and Harrison Ingram, gives them an advantage over Alabama's Grant Nelson and Nick Pringle. Additionally, UNC's ability to limit opponents' free throw attempts compared to Alabama's high foul rate will be a key factor in this game.

In this match-up, UNC is favored to win by a small margin.Consider betting on Tarheels -3.5.

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