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  1. Home
  2. NCAAB Picks
  3. TCU Horned Frogs vs SMU Mustangs
Sat 10:00 PM ET
TCU Horned Frogs logo
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SMU Mustangs logo
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TCU Horned Frogs374683
SMU Mustangs314475
NCAAB · TCU Horned Frogs at SMU Mustangs

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TCU vs SMU Basketball Predictions & Best Bets

Game time: December 10, 2022 at 10:00 PM ET

Venue: Dickies Arena — Fort Worth, TX

Article updated Dec 10, 5:38 AM EST

Published by SportsJaw Editorial Team

TCU is on the road playing SMU at the Dickies Arena stadium on Saturday, 12/10/2022 @ 10:00pm EST. TCU -11.5 was the opening favorite and line hasn't

Game outlook

TCU is on the road playing SMU at the Dickies Arena stadium on Saturday, 12/10/2022 @ 10:00pm EST. TCU -11.5 was the opening favorite and line hasn't moved.

The SMU Mustangs face the TCU Horned Frogs on Saturday at Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, TX. The Frogs are 7-1 this season, with five consecutive wins. After three consecutive losses, SMU is 3-6. TCU beat Jackson State by 27 points in its most recent game, while SMU lost to JSU by one point two games ago. The spread for Texas Christian is 11.5 points, and the total for the game is 134.5.

Can TCU comp ete in the Power 12? Here's what we're about to discover

In its third game of the season, TCU would have been undefeated if it hadn't blown a late lead against Northwestern State. The Horned Frogs shot 35.6 percent from the floor and 2-of-21 from distance (9.5%). The team was without a key contributor, senior guard Damion Baugh (12.5 PPG, 5.0 RPG, and 5.0 APG), who was suspended. The team has won every game since then by double digits, including a 13-point victory over 25th-ranked Iowa in the Emerald Coast Classic. In comparison to the Hawkeyes, it shot the ball much more efficiently (54.8%) and led by as many as 23 points.

In addition to SMU, Utah, Mississippi Valley State, and Central Arkansas, the Horned Frogs have completed most of their non-conference schedule. With the exception of a PAC 12/SEC Challenge game against Mississippi State in late January, the Horned Frogs will play all Atlantic 12 conference games. This means nine games against top 25 teams. Throughout January, Baylor, Iowa State, and Texas will all play consecutive games.

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

At Dickies Arena, can SMU keep up with TCU?

A one-point upset loss to Jackson State sandwiched between double-digit losses to Texas A&M and Arizona State has the Mustangs off course. The games weren't supposed to be easy, but SMU could have played better. Against the Sun Devils, SMU shot 32.7 percent from the field (18-for-55) and 37.5 percent from three-point range (9-for-24). Despite leading by 11 points, it lost the rebounding battle and committed more turnovers. Despite leading at halftime, Southern Methodist collapsed in the second half, as Arizona State outscored it 47-24.

The Mustangs surrendered 68.7 points per game on 41.1 percent shooting from the field, including 32.1 percent from long distance. According to its adjusted defensive efficiency rating, it ranks 133rd in the country. Mustangs' opponents average 36.2 rebounds per game, one of the highest marks in the NCAA.

It is unfortunate that SMU and TCU ha ven't played since 2018, as these two teams have met 191 times since 1919. It might not be the most historic rivalry in Texas history, but it's encouraging to see these two programs facing off again. Can SMU upset a nationally-ranked TCU team for the first time since 1959? SMU leads the all-time series 106-85, but can they upset TCU for the first time since 1959?

In a rivalry game, beating the Horned Frogs is challenging. Under head coach Jamie Dixon, Texas Christian is a stout defensive team with the 21st-best adjusted defensive efficiency rating. In terms of points per game and field goal percentage, SMU ranks 311th.

TCU's leading scorer Miller is still recovering from a back injury, so he missed Tuesday's gam e vers us Jackson State. His backcourt partner Miles Jr. has also been sick. Horned Frogs' superior defense will result in a win over Mustangs as long as those two were held out last game.

TCU Highlights

With a power ranking of 42, TCU is ranked #139 in offense (scoring an average of 74.88 per game), #35 in defense (allowing an average of 61.13 points to be scored against them per game) and are 7-1 (4-4 ATS) this season.

SMU Highlights

SMU Mustangs has a power ranking of 201 and are #310 for offense (scoring an average of 65.89 per game), #185 for defense (giving up an average of 61.13 points per game) and 3-6 (1-7-1 ATS) overall. TCU went 1-2 (1-2 ATS) in their last 3 matchups against SMU.

Curated Picks & Predictions

From the lines set by Sportsbooks, they predict the score to be TCU 56.125, SMU 79.125. 50% of SportsJaw predicts SMU Mustangs to cover. OddsShark has not made their prediction yet.

66% picked SMU Mustangs on Covers.com

Our ScoreCaster predicts Horned Frogs 78 to Mustangs 57.

Staff Prediction

Our prediction: Horned Frogs 78 to Mustangs 57.

Written by SportsJaw Staff Categorized as NCAAB Predictions

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

Unavailable for this preview

Projected winnerUnavailableConfidencelow
Pick on the Spread

Published pick: Unavailable

Pick on the Total

Published pick: Unavailable

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Written by

SportsJaw Editorial Team

SportsJaw published this archived preview from its original game-day article. Its prediction and quoted lines are preserved as written.

About our editorial process

SportsJaw Horned Frogs vs Mustangs archived game preview contains historical odds and availability that may no longer be current. View history of past Horned Frogs vs Mustangs matchups or learn how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · TCU Horned Frogs-585 → -900Moved
  • Moneyline · SMU Mustangs+465 → +600Moved
  • Spread · TCU Horned Frogs-11.5 (-110) → -13 (-110)Moved
  • Spread · SMU Mustangs+11.5 (-110) → +13 (-110)Moved
  • Total · Over134.5 (-110) → 138 (-110)Moved
  • Total · Under134.5 (-110) → 138 (-110)Moved

ATS and O/U trends

TCU Horned Frogs
4-0 matchup record · 7-3-0 ATS · 3-7-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file
SMU Mustangs
1-5 matchup record · 1-9-0 ATS · 4-6-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2022-12-10T10:38:22.000Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

TCU's leading scorer Miller is still recovering from a back injury, so he missed Tuesday's gam e vers us Jackson State. His backcourt partner Miles Jr. has also been sick. Horned Frogs' superior defense will result in a win over Mustangs as long as those two were held out last game.

Recent head-to-head

No completed head-to-head result is available in the current history window.

Final result

Matchup pick recap

TCU Horned Frogs defeated SMU Mustangs 83-75

TCU Horned Frogs defeated SMU Mustangs 83-75 on December 10, 2022, a 8-point decision in the series. TCU Horned Frogs' strongest period was the 1st half, when it outscored its opponent 37-31. Against SportsJaw's recorded TCU Horned Frogs -13 (-110) spread, SMU Mustangs covered, while the 158 combined points finished over the recorded total of 138.

SportsJaw editorial picks

  • Projected winnerNo published selectionUnavailable

Tipster picks

  • BrycetSpread · TCU Horned Frogs -13 (-110)Loss
  • Altuve27Spread · SMU Mustangs +13 (-110)Win
  • CoolioSpread · SMU Mustangs +13 (-110)Win
  • CoolioTotal · Over 138 (-110)Win
  • OddssharkSpread · SMU Mustangs +13 (-110)Win
  • OddssharkTotal · Over 138 (-110)Win
  • CoversSpread · SMU Mustangs +13 (-110)Win