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  1. Home
  2. NCAAB Picks
  3. North Dakota St. Bison vs San Francisco Dons
Fri 10:00 PM ET
North Dakota St. Bison logo
North Dakota St.
Bison
0-1
versus
San Francisco Dons logo
San Francisco
Dons
1-0
NCAAB · North Dakota St. Bison at San Francisco Dons

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North Dakota St. vs San Francisco consensus picks

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North Dakota St. Bison vs San Francisco Dons prediction and best bet

Game time: November 6, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET

Venue: The Sobrato Center — San Francisco, CA

Article updated Nov 6, 10:21 AM EST

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

San Francisco will beat North Dakota State, with a projected score of San Francisco 77, North Dakota State 68. Four double-digit scorers in the Dons’ opener give them the stronger early offensive case against a Bison team coming off a poor shooting performance. Confidence is low, and neither San Francisco -9.5 nor the 146.5 total offers enough projected value for an actionable wager.

North Dakota St. Bison vs San Francisco Dons prediction and best bet

San Francisco is the pick to win, and Pass is the official betting recommendation. The Dons’ 76-62 victory over Radford supplied encouraging contributions across several players. North Dakota State’s 105-64 loss at Saint Mary’s raised questions about its offense, although the opponent’s extraordinary shooting demands caution when interpreting that margin.

The distinction between winning and covering matters here. Our forecast puts San Francisco ahead by nine points, just below the supplied 9.5-point spread. That favors the Dons as the likely winner without making them a compelling spread wager. It also leaves too little separation to recommend taking the Bison’s points.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Game: North Dakota State at San Francisco, Friday, November 6, 2026, in the 2026-27 men’s college basketball season.

Tipoff: 7 p.m. PT, or 10 p.m. ET, according to USF Athletics.

Venue: War Memorial Gym at Sobrato Center in San Francisco, California.

Broadcast: ESPN+.

Record: San Francisco entered 1-0 following its November 2 win over Radford.

SportsJaw odds: North Dakota St. Bison +9.5 (-115); San Francisco Dons -9.5 (-105). Moneyline: North Dakota St. Bison +350; San Francisco Dons -450. Total: Over 146.5 (-110); Under 146.5 (-110).

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

North Dakota St. Bison outlook

North Dakota State trailed Saint Mary’s 45-26 at halftime on November 4. According to NDSU Athletics, the Bison finished shooting 37.7% from the field and 5-for-23 from three-point range, or 21.7%. Their own offensive struggles are a more useful warning for this forecast than the final deficit alone.

Karl Poom scored 15 points and Max Iversen added 11. Those performances offer individual positives, but the team’s perimeter accuracy left little scoring cushion. Better outside shooting would help the Bison keep pace; one poor night is insufficient to label them a consistently weak shooting team.

Saint Mary’s made 20 of 31 threes and shot 67.2% overall. Those figures explain much of the severity of the defeat. They should temper expectations of another blowout without excusing North Dakota State’s defensive performance.

San Francisco Dons outlook

USF Athletics reports that freshman Dylan Bordón opened with 20 points, seven assists and two steals against Radford. Ismaila Diagne added 16 points and 11 rebounds. Their scoring and passing contributions are the clearest reasons to prefer San Francisco’s offense in this matchup.

Gustav Knudsen supplied 13 points, six rebounds, two assists, two blocks and a steal in 37 minutes. Ben Oosterbaan contributed 10 points and three steals. Four double-digit scorers gave San Francisco several contributors in that victory, though one game cannot establish how dependable that distribution will become.

Ndewedo Newbury also returned after missing all of 2025-26 and most of 2024-25 because of injury. The official preview reports no current restriction. His return is relevant personnel context, but it should not be converted into an assumed workload or projected scoring boost.

Key matchup factors

The central question is whether San Francisco can sustain its opening offensive production while North Dakota State improves its shooting. The Dons have the more encouraging recent result, but these performances came against different opponents. Treating the two margins as directly comparable would overstate the case for San Francisco.

Other analysts agree on the winner but differ on the size of the advantage. Dimers’ written forecast is San Francisco 77, North Dakota State 68, with an 82.6% model win probability. Its visual display instead shows 78-68. WagerTalk/GoldSheet projects 82-66. Neither forecast nor Dimers’ probability is SportsJaw’s confidence rating.

As of November 6 at 15:17 UTC, SportsJaw’s blended spread consensus favored North Dakota State +9.5 at 54%, up 15 percentage points from the previous day. SportsJaw members favored the Bison, while the external consensus favored San Francisco -9.5 at 58%. That split reinforces the distinction between expecting a Dons win and backing their spread.

North Dakota St. Bison vs San Francisco Dons spread prediction

Spread recommendation: Pass on San Francisco -9.5 (-105) and North Dakota State +9.5 (-115). Our nine-point projected margin sits half a point below the spread. Such a narrow difference is too fragile to justify a Bison wager, and the forecast offers no cushion for laying the points.

WagerTalk/GoldSheet recommends San Francisco -9.5. Dimers’ written projection implies a Bison cover, while its visual projection implies a Dons cover. That one-point inconsistency matters at this line. Analyst agreement on the outright winner is not agreement on spread value.

North Dakota St. Bison vs San Francisco Dons total prediction

Total recommendation: Pass on Over 146.5 (-110) and Under 146.5 (-110). Our projected 145 points lean below the number, but the 1.5-point gap is modest given the uncertainty surrounding both teams’ next shooting performance.

WagerTalk/GoldSheet recommends Over 146.5, whereas both Dimers score displays finish below that total. SportsJaw members and qualified handicappers each favor Over 146.5 at 80%. Those are separate pick indicators, not an 80% probability of an Over. The disagreement leaves neither direction persuasive enough for an official bet.

North Dakota St. Bison vs San Francisco Dons Projected Score & Betting Picks

Game forecast: San Francisco 77, North Dakota State 68. The Dons’ multiple productive contributors supply the strongest reason to select them. The main counterargument is that North Dakota State’s latest margin was amplified by exceptional opposing shooting, making it a shaky guide to this game.

Confidence is low. San Francisco remains the projected winner, but the narrow gaps between our forecast and both betting lines leave the single official SportsJaw betting lean at Pass.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

Bison68

Dons77

Projected winner San Francisco DonsConfidencelow
Pick on the Spread

Published pick: Pass on San Francisco Dons -9.5 (-105) and North Dakota St. Bison +9.5 (-115)

Pick on the Total

Published pick: Pass on Over 146.5 (-110) and Under 146.5 (-110)

Sources

  • University of San Francisco AthleticsUSF Hosts North Dakota State Friday Night
  • NDSU AthleticsPrevious-game context: Saint Mary’s Defeats NDSU Men’s Basketball
  • DimersNorth Dakota State vs. San Francisco Prediction, Picks & Odds [11/6/2026]
#NorthDakotaStBison#SanFranciscoDons

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Written by

SportsJaw Editorial Team

SportsJaw's editorial organization researches matchup data, current odds, injuries and reporting, then validates each published preview against its listed sources and displayed markets.

About our editorial process

SportsJaw Bison vs Dons game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Bison vs Dons matchups or learn how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · North Dakota St. Bison+213 → +350Moved
  • Moneyline · San Francisco Dons-300 → -450Moved
  • Spread · North Dakota St. Bison+8 (-110) → +9.5 (-115)Moved
  • Spread · San Francisco Dons-8 (-110) → -9.5 (-105)Moved
  • Total · Over146.5 (-110) → 146.5 (-110)Unchanged
  • Total · Under146.5 (-110) → 146.5 (-110)Unchanged

ATS and O/U trends

North Dakota St. Bison
0-1 matchup record · 5-5-0 ATS · 4-6-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file
San Francisco Dons
1-0 matchup record · 4-6-0 ATS · 6-4-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2026-11-06T05:19:20.142Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

Ndewedo Newbury also returned after missing all of 2025-26 and most of 2024-25 because of injury. The official preview reports no current restriction. His return is relevant personnel context, but it should not be converted into an assumed workload or projected scoring boost.

Recent head-to-head

No completed head-to-head result is available in the current history window.

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