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  1. Home
  2. NCAAB Picks
  3. UT Rio Grande Valley vs Texas-Arlington Mavericks
Sat 7:00 PM ET
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UT Rio Grande Valley
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Mavericks
1-1
NCAAB · UT Rio Grande Valley at Texas-Arlington Mavericks

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UT Rio Grande Valley vs Texas-Arlington Mavericks Prediction, Odds and Best Bet

Game time: November 14, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET

Venue: College Park Center — Arlington, TX

Article updated Nov 14, 12:56 AM EST

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

Texas-Arlington is projected to beat UT Rio Grande Valley, 72-68, with its early rebounding production providing the strongest reason to favor the Mavericks at home. UTRGV’s defensive activity makes this a low-confidence forecast, however. Neither Texas-Arlington -2.5 (-110) nor the 141.5-point total offers a sufficiently persuasive betting advantage, so the official recommendation is Pass on this November 14 matchup.

UT Rio Grande Valley vs Texas-Arlington Mavericks prediction and best bet

Texas-Arlington gets the pick because its rebounding and several productive scorers offer a plausible route through UTRGV’s defense. The Mavericks’ official preview reports a +13.3 rebounding margin through four games. That is the strongest foundation for this forecast, although it is an early-season team result rather than proof of an advantage over this particular opponent.

The best betting decision is Pass. A projected four-point win puts Arlington beyond the supplied spread, but that narrow cushion leaves little room for error. UTRGV’s defensive results and the small samples behind both teams’ averages make the distinction between picking the winner and buying the favorite especially important.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Date and competition: Saturday, November 14, 2026, in the 2026-27 men’s college basketball season.

Venue: College Park Center in Arlington, Texas. Broadcast: ESPN+.

Records: UT Rio Grande Valley 0-0; Texas-Arlington Mavericks 1-1.

SportsJaw odds: UT Rio Grande Valley +3.5 (-115); Texas-Arlington Mavericks -3.5 (-156). Moneyline: UT Rio Grande Valley +160; Texas-Arlington Mavericks -192. Total: Over 141.5 (-108); Under 141.5 (-117).

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

UT Rio Grande Valley outlook

UTRGV averages 71.3 points and allows 62.0 through three games, according to Arlington’s official preview. The Vaqueros lost 72-65 to Texas State on November 10. Their own preview credits them with 10 steals, four blocks and 16 points off turnovers in that game. Those takeaways suggest a way to disrupt Arlington, even though defensive activity alone did not deliver a victory.

Jace Posey supplies 16.3 points and 7.0 rebounds per game while shooting 49%. B.B. Knight adds 12.7 points and has made six threes. Posey’s scoring and work on the boards make him central to an upset forecast; UTRGV needs productive possessions as well as defensive stops.

Always Wright has opened 6-for-7 from three through three starts. That gives Arlington another shooter to account for, but seven attempts are too few to treat that accuracy as a dependable expectation. UTRGV’s first non-conference road assignment also adds uncertainty to how its opening results translate here.

Texas-Arlington Mavericks outlook

Arlington went 2-1 at the Outrigger Rainbow Classic before beating Bethesda 116-65 on November 9. Through four games, the Mavericks average 89.0 points, shoot 46.3% overall and 34.3% from three, and collect 49.3 rebounds per game. The 116-point performance is part of that scoring average, so projecting another offensive outburst would put too much weight on one result.

Teodor Simic averages 14.8 points and 8.5 rebounds, while Niko Bundalo contributes 12.8 points and 7.3 rebounds. Mier Panoam adds 12.3 points, 6.5 rebounds and a team-leading 4.5 assists. Their production gives Arlington several contributors to work through if one scoring option struggles.

Noah Shelby averages 12.0 points and leads the Mavericks with 10 made threes. His career-high 22 points against Bethesda illustrate his scoring potential. Against UTRGV, protecting possessions looks more important to the forecast than trying to reproduce that final score.

Key matchup factors

The central question is whether Arlington can turn its early rebounding production into sustained control while keeping UTRGV from generating offense through takeaways. Rebounds and steals offer different routes to possession advantages. Without a corresponding UTRGV rebounding figure or an Arlington turnover rate, neither matchup should be treated as settled.

UTRGV’s preview identifies athleticism, pace and defense as important themes. That is the team’s assessment, not an independent betting prediction. The forecast gives more weight to Arlington’s demonstrated scoring contributions, while recognizing that disrupted possessions could undermine them.

SportsJaw member sentiment favors the other spread side: UT Rio Grande Valley +2.5 (-110) leads at 100%, while Over 141.5 (-110) also leads at 100%. The overall snapshot was updated November 14 at 00:04 UTC. These percentages describe community selections, not win probabilities, and they do not make either wager a guaranteed edge.

UT Rio Grande Valley vs Texas-Arlington Mavericks spread prediction

Spread recommendation: Pass on Texas-Arlington -2.5 (-110) and UT Rio Grande Valley +2.5 (-110). Arlington is the projected winner, but its early scoring average and rebounding margin are not enough to confidently price the winning margin.

The projected four-point victory would cover -2.5, but a single possession could change that outcome. UTRGV’s defensive activity is a meaningful counterargument, and the community preference for the underdog reinforces the difference between this editorial forecast and member sentiment.

UT Rio Grande Valley vs Texas-Arlington Mavericks total prediction

Total recommendation: Pass on Over 141.5 (-110) and Under 141.5 (-110). The forecast totals 140 points, a slight Under indication that falls short of an actionable recommendation.

Arlington’s scoring offers an Over argument, while UTRGV’s 62.0 points allowed per game points toward restraint. Neither average measures the pace of this matchup. Turnovers can create quick scoring chances or simply end possessions without points, so UTRGV’s defensive activity should not automatically be counted as an Over factor.

UT Rio Grande Valley vs Texas-Arlington Mavericks Projected Score & Betting Picks

Game forecast: Texas-Arlington Mavericks 72, UT Rio Grande Valley 68. Arlington’s rebounding production and multiple scoring contributors earn the nod. UTRGV’s ability to force mistakes is the strongest counterargument and could swing a close game.

Confidence is low because the forecast rests on three- and four-game samples with competing offensive and defensive signals. The Mavericks remain the winner selection, but neither the spread nor total offers enough separation from the projected outcome. Official SportsJaw wager: Pass.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

UT Rio Grande Valley68

Mavericks72

Projected winner Texas-Arlington MavericksConfidencelow
Pick on the Spread

Published pick: Pass (article line changed)

Pick on the Total

Published pick: Pass on Over 141.5 (-110) and Under 141.5 (-110)

Sources

  • University of Texas Arlington AthleticsUT Arlington Hosts UTRGV for Homecoming and Alumni Day
  • UTRGV AthleticsMen’s Basketball Heads to UT Arlington For First Road Game Saturday
#TexasArlingtonMavericks

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Written by

SportsJaw Editorial Team

SportsJaw's editorial organization researches matchup data, current odds, injuries and reporting, then validates each published preview against its listed sources and displayed markets.

About our editorial process

SportsJaw UT Rio Grande Valley vs Mavericks game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · UT Rio Grande Valley+163 → +160Moved
  • Moneyline · Texas-Arlington Mavericks-212 → -192Moved
  • Spread · UT Rio Grande Valley+2.5 (-110) → +3.5 (-115)Moved
  • Spread · Texas-Arlington Mavericks-2.5 (-110) → -3.5 (-156)Moved
  • Total · Over141.5 (-110) → 141.5 (-108)Moved
  • Total · Under141.5 (-110) → 141.5 (-117)Moved

ATS and O/U trends

UT Rio Grande Valley
0-0 matchup record · ATS unavailable · O/U unavailable
Last 0 completed games on file
Texas-Arlington Mavericks
1-1 matchup record · 6-4-0 ATS · 2-8-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2026-11-14T05:56:21.661Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

No verified injury or availability note was included in the published matchup research.

Recent head-to-head

  • 2026-02-26Texas-Arlington Mavericks 56 · California Baptist 68
  • 2026-02-19Utah Tech 50 · Texas-Arlington Mavericks 63
  • 2026-02-05Texas-Arlington Mavericks 84 · Utah Tech 87
  • 2026-01-31California Baptist 87 · Texas-Arlington Mavericks 77
  • 2026-01-15Texas-Arlington Mavericks 56 · Utah Tech 52
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