Air Force Falcons vs
San Diego St. AztecsPredictions & Preview

San Diego State Favored but Air Force Looks to Upset in MWC Matchup

On January 8, 2025, the Air Force Falcons (3-11, 0-3 MWC) will take on the San Diego State Aztecs (9-3, 2-1 MWC) at Viejas Arena in San Diego. Historically, the Aztecs have dominated this series with a 64-24 all-time advantage and a 16-game winning streak against the Falcons at home. San Diego State comes into the game with momentum following a 76-68 victory at Boise State, while Air Force has struggled on the road, losing their last five away games. The Aztecs are heavily favored with the spread set at -22.5 points, but the current line has shifted to San Diego State -19.5.

Betting Odds

• Moneyline: Falcons +1500 | Aztecs -4500
• Spread: Falcons +19.5 (-110) | Aztecs -19.5 (-110)
• Total: Over/Under 130.5 (-110)
• Based on the moneyline, the implied probability that San Diego St. will win straight-up is 98%.

Air Force vs San Diego St. Stats

Air Force Falcons

The Air Force Falcons have encountered difficulties this season, with a 3-11 overall record and no wins in conference play. Their offense has struggled, averaging 65.1 points per game while allowing 70.0 points to opponents. Key player Ethan Taylor has shown promise, leading the team with 14.4 points per game. In their latest game against Wyoming, the Falcons fell short with a 70-65 loss despite strong performances from Wesley Celichowski and Ethan Taylor. With a power ranking of 264, Air Force ranks 344 in offense and 148 in defense. Their shooting percentages and statistical rankings in various categories highlight areas for improvement. If you need assistance with college basketball, consider consulting the Best College Basketball Handicappers.

San Diego St. Aztecs Analysis

The San Diego State Aztecs have maintained a strong program status with a 9-3 record, including a 2-1 conference mark. They have been dominant at home, not losing to Air Force since the 2004-05 season. Their defense has been a key factor in their success, holding opponents to 35.7% shooting from the field, which ranks fourth-best in the country. On offense, the Aztecs average 74.5 ppg, with a balanced attack led by Miles Byrd and Nick Boyd. Byrd led the team with 23 points in a recent win over Boise State.

In terms of power rankings, the Aztecs rank 49th overall, with a strong defense ranking of 26th in the country, giving up an average of 63.55 points per game. Offensively, they are ranked 217th, scoring an average of 74.36 per game. They shoot 44.83% from the field and 36.47% from three-point range. Defensively, they allow opponents to shoot 35.60% from the field and 29.07% from three-point range. The Aztecs also average 37.55 rebounds per game and 13.45 assists.

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San Diego State's Dominance in Question against Air Force: Spread Favors Falcons

The Aztecs demonstrate superiority, however, the point spread presents reservations for endorsement. San Diego State has only covered the spread in one out of their last four games as home favorites. Despite a winning streak of nine games against Air Force, the margin of victory has been modest, with only two wins exceeding 22 points. Given the anticipated slow pace of the game, there is minimal margin for error for San Diego State to cover this extensive spread. While not a definitive choice, Air Force appears to be the more favorable option in this scenario.

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