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Texas State vs Arkansas St. Red Wolves Predictions January 11, 2024

Game time: January 11, 2024 at 8:30 PM ET

Venue: First National Bank Arena — Jonesboro, AR

Article updated Jan 11, 6:19 AM EST

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

This Thursday night, the Sun Belt Conference will host an anticipated match at First National Bank Arena between the Texas State Bobcats and the Arkansas State Red Wolves.

Game outlook

This Thursday night, the Sun Belt Conference will host an anticipated match at First National Bank Arena between the Texas State Bobcats and the Arkansas State Red Wolves. The Bobcats, with a record of 6-9 and 0-3 in conference play, have been struggling lately, having lost their past four games, including a 79-75 defeat against the Marshall Thundering Herd in their last home game. On the other hand, the Red Wolves (6-9, 2-1) are experiencing a resurgence, currently on a two-game winning streak, with their most recent victory being a decisive 90-75 triumph against the Old Dominion Monarchs at home. As the game approaches, Arkansas State is listed as the favored team, initially opening at -8 and the current line stands at Arkansas State -7.

Betting Odds

Moneyline: +265 | Red Wolves -336

Spread: +7 (-110) | Red Wolves -7 (-110)

Total: Over/Under 146.5 (-110)

Based on the moneyline, the implied probability that Arkansas St. will win straight-up is 77%.

Texas State

The Texas State Bobcats are looking to recover from a recent home loss against the Marshall Thundering Herd. Despite a solid offensive performance, shooting 46.7 percent overall, 36.4 percent from distance, and making 19 free throws, their defense struggled to prevent their opponents from scoring. The Bobcats allowed 49.1 percent shooting from the field, 42.1 percent from beyond the arc, and gave up 26 free throw attempts. Throughout the season, the Bobcats' offense has struggled, ranking 294th in college basketball with an average of 69.5 points per game. However, their defense has been more average, allowing an average of 70.5 points per game, which ranks 155th in the NCAA. In terms of statistics, the Bobcats have a power ranking of 288 and are ranked 298 in offense, scoring an average of 69.14 points per game. Their defense is ranked 146th, allowing an average of 69.86 points per game. So far this season, they have a record of 6-9 and are 5-8 against the spread. Looking at their offensive performance, the Bobcats have a field goal percentage of 43.59 percent, ranking them 242nd. They shoot 64.46 percent from the free-throw line, ranking them 339th. Their three-point percentage is 30.80 percent, placing them 290th in the NCAAB. They average 37.64 rebounds per game, ranking 133rd, and have 13.07 offensive assists and 13.86 turnovers per game, placing them 215th and 307th, respectively. Defensively, the Bobcats allow their opponents to shoot 43.02 percent from the field, ranking them 187th. They allow 71.67 percent from the free-throw line, ranking them 225th. Their three-point defense is at 29.21 percent, ranking 45th. They average 34.93 defensive rebounds per game, placing them 34th, and have 11.50 defensive assists and 12.79 turnovers per game, ranking 91st and 176th, respectively. Overall, the Bobcats are focused on improving their performance and getting back on track in their upcoming games.

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Arkansas St. Red Wolves Analysis

The Arkansas State Red Wolves are coming off a 90-75 home win against the Old Dominion Monarchs. They had a strong offensive performance, scoring 48 points in the first half. The team shot well, making 47.0% of their field goals, 39.1% of their three-pointers, and 75.0% of their free throws. Junior forward Dyondre Dominguez had an impressive stat line with 16 points, 11 rebounds, one assist, and one steal in 30 minutes of play. However, their defense needs improvement as they allowed Old Dominion to have a shooting split of 42.3/39.1/75.0. In terms of national rankings, the Arkansas State Red Wolves have a power ranking of 33. They are ranked 109th in offense, scoring an average of 77.86 points per game. On the defensive side, they are ranked 338th, giving up an average of 79.07 points per game. Overall, their record is 6-9 with a 9-5-1 ATS. In terms of offensive statistics, the Red Wolves shoot 43.05% from the field (ranked 269th), 68.98% from the free-throw line (ranked 257th), and 34.41% from three-point range (ranked 149th in the NCAAB). They average 38.43 rebounds per game (ranked 97th) and have 15.14 offensive assists and 12.71 turnovers per game (ranked 94th and 216th, respectively). On the defensive end, Arkansas State allows opponents to shoot 45.36% from the field (ranked 299th) and 74.25% from the free-throw line (ranked 321st in the NCAAB). They allow opponents to make 31.22% of their three-pointers (ranked 108th) and average 37.07 defensive rebounds per game (ranked 37th). They also average 12.00 defensive assists and 10.07 turnovers per game (ranked 130th and 343rd, respectively).

Texas State's Poor Shooting Contributes to Lower Ranking, Favoring Arkansas State's Home Advantage

When examining KenPom's adjusted efficiency margin, it becomes evident that Texas State currently ranks 227th in college basketball with a -4.42 rating, while Arkansas State holds a stronger position at 157th in the nation with a +0.69 rating. A significant contributing factor to this disparity is the teams' respective ability to shoot from beyond the arc. The Bobcats are notably lacking in this area, with a team three-point percentage of only 28.4, which places them at a lowly 335th in the sport. Conversely, the Red Wolves boast a more impressive 35.4 team three-point percentage, positioning them at 102nd in the country. Considering these factors, it is sensible to predict that the Arkansas State Red Wolves will outperform the spread when playing at home.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

Unavailable for this preview

Projected winnerUnavailableConfidencelow
Pick on the Spread

Published pick: Unavailable

Pick on the Total

Published pick: Unavailable

SportsJaw Texas State vs Red Wolves archived game preview contains historical odds and availability that may no longer be current. how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Crowd vs qualified handicappers

No qualifying consensus sample is available yet.

Qualified handicappers need at least 20 graded picks and a 52.5% win rate. A market needs at least three current qualified picks. Selection share is not a win probability.

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · Texas State+275 → +218Moved
  • Moneyline · Arkansas St. Red Wolves-350 → -268Moved
  • Spread · Texas State+8 (-110) → +5.5 (-110)Moved
  • Spread · Arkansas St. Red Wolves-8 (-110) → -5.5 (-110)Moved
  • Total · Over145.5 (-110) → 144 (-110)Moved
  • Total · Under145.5 (-110) → 144 (-110)Moved

ATS and O/U trends

Texas State
ATS unavailable · O/U unavailable
Last 0 completed games on file
Arkansas St. Red Wolves
20-12 matchup record · 7-2-1 ATS · 4-6-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2024-01-11T11:19:38.698Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

No verified injury or availability note was included in the published matchup research.

Recent head-to-head

  • 2023-11-25Arkansas St. Red Wolves 75 · UT Rio Grande Valley 58
  • 2023-02-09Arkansas St. Red Wolves 62 · Texas State 66
  • 2023-01-12Texas State 61 · Arkansas St. Red Wolves 58
  • 2022-02-17Arkansas St. Red Wolves 67 · Texas State 84
  • 2022-01-22Texas State 60 · Arkansas St. Red Wolves 67
Final result

Matchup pick recap

Arkansas St. Red Wolves defeated Texas State 85-82

Arkansas St. Red Wolves defeated Texas State 85-82 on January 11, 2024, a 3-point decision in the series. Arkansas St. Red Wolves' strongest period was the 2nd half, when it outscored its opponent 47-43. Against SportsJaw's recorded Texas State +5.5 (-110) spread, Texas State covered, while the 167 combined points finished over the recorded total of 144.

SportsJaw editorial picks

  • Projected winnerNo published selectionUnavailable

Tipster picks

  • JaredkuntzSpread · Arkansas St. Red Wolves -7 (-110)Loss
  • GsimmsSpread · Arkansas St. Red Wolves -7 (-110)Loss