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  1. Home
  2. NBA Picks
  3. Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat
Sat 7:30 PM ET
Dallas Mavericks logo
Dallas
Mavericks122
36-40
versus
Miami Heat logo
Miami
Heat129
40-36
Final
Team1234T
Dallas Mavericks31333226122
Miami Heat44322627129
NBA · Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat

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Mavericks vs Heat Predictions & Best Bets

Game time: April 1, 2023 at 7:30 PM ET

Venue: Miami-Dade Arena — Miami, FL

Article updated Mar 31, 2:14 PM EDT

Published by SportsJaw Editorial Team

The Dallas Mavericks are traveling to play the Miami Heat at the Miami-Dade Arena stadium on Saturday, 4/1/2023 @ 7:30pm EST. Miami is the betting favorite opening at 0 and

Game outlook

The Dallas Mavericks are traveling to play the Miami Heat at the Miami-Dade Arena stadium on Saturday, 4/1/2023 @ 7:30pm EST. Miami is the betting favorite opening at 0 and the current line is Dallas -2.5.

Mavericks vs Heat Prediction for Tonight's Game

Based on recent trends and stats, the Scorecaster predicts Heat to win tonight's game by 9 points. This model factors in recent against the spread (ATS) trends and scoring which predicts the Miami Heat to cover the 1 point spread and the total to go under 224.5 points.

PREDICTED SCORE: Dallas 106 to Miami 115

Scorecaster algorithmic predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Dallas Mavericks and Miami Heat, including recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups from recent history.

Curated Picks & Predictions

The SportsJaw community predicts Dallas Mavericks to cover the spread (57%)

Based on the moneyline, the implied probability that Miami will win straight-up is 55%.

From the lines set by Sportsbooks, they predict the score to be DAL 114.75, MIA 109.75.

OddsShark predicts Dallas will win, cover the spread, and the total will go under.

split down the middle on Covers.com

Dallas Key Betting Stats

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With a power ranking of 12, Dallas is ranked #16 in offense (scoring an average of 113.87 per game), #15 in defense (allowing an average of 113.30 points to be scored against them per game) and are 37-40 (29-45-3 ATS) this season.

Offensively, the Mavericks hit an average of 47.41% of their field goals (ranked #16) and 75.67% of their free throws (ranked #24) and makes an average of 37.15% of their three pointers ranked #9 in the NBA). They average 38.62 rebounds per game (ranked # 30) and average 22.70 offensive assists and 11.76 turnovers per game (ranked # 28 and 2 respectively).

Defensively speaking, Dallas allows an average of 48.51% field goals (ranked #25) and 77.98% free throws (ranked #13 in the NBA) The Mavericks allow an average of 34.97% of the three pointers (ranked #7) and averages 44.20 defensive rebounds per game (ranked # 44.20) Finally, the Mavericks average 24.70 defensive assists and 12.61 turnovers per game (ranked # 9 and 22 respectively).

Miami Key Betting Stats

Miami Heat has a power ranking of 25 and are #30 for offense (scoring an average of 108.92 per game), #2 for defense (giving up an average of 109.87 points per game) and 40-37 (27-47-3 ATS) overall. Dallas went 1-2 (1-2 ATS) in their last 3 matchups against Miami.

For offense, the Heat hit an average of 45.65% of their field goals (ranked #27) and 83.32% of their free throws (ranked #2) and makes an average of 34.10% of their three pointers (ranked #27 in the NBA). They average 40.67 rebounds per game (ranked # 28) and average 23.51 offensive assists and 12.86 turnovers per game (ranked # 25) and 9 respectively).

On defense, Miami allows an average of 48.08% field goals (ranked #21) and 78.37% free throws (ranked #19 in the NBA) The Heat allow an average of 36.88% of the three pointers (ranked #21) and averages 42.03 defensive rebounds per game (ranked # 42.03) Finally, the Heat average 25.62 defensive assists and 15.04 turnovers per game (ranked # 15 and 3 respectively).

Betting Summary

Miami has a slight advantage in regards to ball control (factoring in rebounds and turnovers).

The Scorecaster model predicts the Miami Heat to cover the 1 point spread and the total to go under 224.5 points.

For the best predictions available, make sure to checkout the best bets made by our certified NBA experts.

Written by SportsJaw Staff Categorized as NBA Predictions

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

Unavailable for this preview

Projected winnerUnavailableConfidencelow
Pick on the Spread

Published pick: Unavailable

Pick on the Total

Published pick: Unavailable

#DallasMavericks#MiamiHeat

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Written by

SportsJaw Editorial Team

SportsJaw published this archived preview from its original game-day article. Its prediction and quoted lines are preserved as written.

About our editorial process

SportsJaw Mavericks vs Heat archived game preview contains historical odds and availability that may no longer be current. View history of past Mavericks vs Heat matchups or learn how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · Dallas Mavericks-110 → -140Moved
  • Moneyline · Miami Heat-110 → +123Moved
  • Spread · Dallas Mavericks0 (-110) → -2.5 (-110)Moved
  • Spread · Miami Heat0 (-110) → +2.5 (-110)Moved
  • Total · OverN/A (-110) → 224.5 (-110)Moved
  • Total · UnderN/A (-110) → 224.5 (-110)Moved

ATS and O/U trends

Dallas Mavericks
36-40 matchup record · 6-4-0 ATS · 2-8-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file
Miami Heat
40-36 matchup record · 4-6-0 ATS · 6-4-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2023-03-31T18:14:20.415Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

Scorecaster algorithmic predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Dallas Mavericks and Miami Heat, including recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups from recent history.

Recent head-to-head

  • 2023-01-20Miami Heat 90 · Dallas Mavericks 115
Final result

Matchup pick recap

Miami Heat defeated Dallas Mavericks 129-122

Miami Heat defeated Dallas Mavericks 129-122 on April 1, 2023, a 7-point decision in the series. Miami Heat's strongest period was the 1st quarter, when it outscored its opponent 44-31. Against SportsJaw's recorded Dallas Mavericks -2.5 (-110) spread, Miami Heat covered, while the 251 combined points finished over the recorded total of 224.5.

SportsJaw editorial picks

  • Projected winnerNo published selectionUnavailable

Tipster picks

  • Drew_WestcottSpread · Dallas Mavericks 0 (-110)Loss
  • SimonsaysSpread · Dallas Mavericks 0 (-110)Loss
  • MoneymouthSpread · Dallas Mavericks +1.25 (-110)Loss
  • GustavosintoSpread · Miami Heat -1.25 (-110)Win
  • 1118240754Spread · Dallas Mavericks +1.25 (-110)Loss
  • Altuve27Spread · Dallas Mavericks +1 (-110)Loss
  • Ttran206Spread · Dallas Mavericks +1 (-110)Loss
  • CoolioSpread · Dallas Mavericks +1 (-110)Loss
  • OddssharkSpread · Dallas Mavericks +1 (-110)Loss
  • OddssharkTotal · Over 225 (-110)Win
  • CoversSpread · Dallas Mavericks +1 (-110)Loss
  • TropTotal · Under 225 (-110)Loss
  • 1954085126Total · Under 225 (-110)Loss
  • JaredkuntzSpread · Miami Heat -1 (-110)Win