New Orleans Pelicans vs Golden State Warriors prediction, odds and best bet for Nov. 9

New Orleans Pelicans outlook

New Orleans lost 139-123 to the Clippers on November 8 despite getting 26 points from Trey Murphy and 25 apiece from Jeremiah Fears and Zion Williamson. That scoring distribution gives the Pelicans a plausible route to staying competitive without relying on one player to match Curry.

The defensive result is the bigger concern. The Pelicans’ official recap reports 23 assists and 17 turnovers, with Los Angeles scoring 39, 35 and 37 points over the final three quarters. Before that game, New Orleans had not allowed more than 126 regulation points in a game this season. It was a particularly poor result, rather than proof that 139 points allowed is its normal defensive level.

The schedule leaves New Orleans playing again the following night. Its availability picture also needs care: the NBA’s November 9 report at 2:15 a.m. says the team had not submitted its injury report. AP separately lists Yves Missi out with a knee injury. That report should not be expanded into assumptions about the rest of the roster.

Golden State Warriors outlook

Curry scored 41 points in Golden State’s 126-119 overtime victory over Orlando, according to AP. His scoring is the strongest individual reason to favor the Warriors here, although the overtime finish matters when using that team total to judge another game’s scoring potential.

The official NBA report lists Jimmy Butler III out following right ACL repair/surgery, Moses Moody out following left patellar-tendon repair/surgery and Will Richard out with a left-thumb UCL tear. It lists Gui Santos as probable with left-knee tendinitis.

AP additionally lists Kristaps Porzingis out and describes Santos as day-to-day. Porzingis’ status is therefore attributed to AP, while the two sources use different descriptions for Santos. Those distinctions leave some uncertainty around Golden State’s supporting personnel and temper enthusiasm for a large winning margin.

Key matchup factors

The forecast hinges on how much weight to give New Orleans’ latest defensive collapse. Another performance close to that level would favor Golden State heavily. A recovery toward the Pelicans’ earlier results would make the 9.5-point cushion more meaningful, especially with the Warriors missing several players.

Covers analyst Jon Metler favors Golden State on the moneyline. He argues that Derik Queen and Karlo Matkovic present a more perimeter-oriented matchup that could suit Draymond Green and reduce the impact of Golden State’s center-depth concerns. That is Metler’s matchup interpretation, not an independently verified personnel advantage.

At the November 9 consensus update around 13:36 UTC, SportsJaw’s blended selections favored Golden State -9.5 at 68% and Over 231.5 at 66%. Member preferences were narrower: 52% for Golden State and 53% for the Over. Those figures describe selection preferences, not the probability that either wager wins.

New Orleans Pelicans vs Golden State Warriors spread prediction

Pass on Golden State -9.5 (-104) and New Orleans +9.5 (-110). The nine-point projected margin falls just inside the Pelicans’ spread, but that small difference is too fragile to make New Orleans an official play.

The outside spread assessments disagree. Dimers selects Pelicans +9.5 with a modeled 53.4% probability, while NBA Picks Today assigns that side 51.0% and finds no edge. Metler’s Golden State moneyline pick answers a different question and is compatible with a New Orleans cover. There is no unified spread recommendation here.

New Orleans Pelicans vs Golden State Warriors total prediction

Pass on Over 231.5 (-110) and Under 231.5 (-110). The projection leans above the line, but only by 1.5 points. New Orleans’ latest game encourages an Over argument; Golden State’s overtime-assisted scoring result and personnel uncertainty make that argument less secure.

NBA Picks Today recommends Over 231.5, projecting 237.1 points and assigning the Over a 62.0% modeled probability. That is a more aggressive scoring forecast than ours. Its model and the consensus preference warrant consideration, but neither turns two recent high-scoring results into a dependable betting advantage.

New Orleans Pelicans vs Golden State Warriors Projected Score & Betting Picks

The final forecast is Warriors 121, Pelicans 112. Golden State’s stronger record, Curry’s recent output and New Orleans’ consecutive-night schedule favor the home team. The strongest counterargument is the Warriors’ injury situation, which could narrow the gap.

Confidence in the winner is medium. The projected nine-point margin and 233 combined points leave both betting lines close enough that modest changes in performance could reverse the result against either number. The single official SportsJaw betting recommendation is Pass.