Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat Predictions Today
The Miami Heat will beat the Dallas Mavericks, with a projected score of Miami 121, Dallas 113. Giannis Antetokounmpo’s early scoring production against a Dallas team missing Dereck Lively II and Santi Aldama supplies the strongest matchup reason. Neither Miami -8.5 (-106) nor Under 236.5 (-108) offers a convincing betting edge, so the official recommendation is Pass.
Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat prediction and best bet
Miami is the pick to secure its first victory of the 2026-27 NBA season. Antetokounmpo averaged 28.3 points through three games, and Dallas enters with several confirmed absences. His scoring gives the Heat the strongest foundation for this forecast, particularly with Lively and Aldama unavailable.
The best betting decision is Pass. Miami’s opponents have made 42 percent of their 3-point attempts, a weakness Dallas could exploit even with its injury problems. An eight-point projected victory also leaves Miami short of covering 8.5. The projected total of 234 points falls below 236.5, but that small cushion is vulnerable to Dallas shooting well or Miami’s struggling shooters improving.
Odds, game time and how to watch
Game: Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat, Monday, October 26, 2026, at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Venue: Kaseya Center, Miami, Florida. Broadcast: NBA TV, with KFAA-29 and MavsTV+ also listed.
Records: Dallas Mavericks 0-0; Miami Heat 0-0.
SportsJaw moneyline: Dallas +260; Miami -320. Spread: Dallas +8.5 (-106); Miami -8.5 (-106). Total: Over 236.5 (-112); Under 236.5 (-108).
Availability: Dallas listed Cooper Flagg questionable and Caleb Martin doubtful in its October 25 preview. The October 26 injury report listed no Miami players.