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Memphis Grizzlies logo
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Sacramento
Kings
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NBA · Memphis Grizzlies at Sacramento Kings

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Memphis vs Sacramento consensus picks

Memphis Grizzlies66%
34%Sacramento Kings
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Memphis Grizzlies vs Sacramento Kings Predictions Today

Game time: October 25, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET

Venue: Golden 1 Center — Sacramento, CA

Article updated Oct 25, 8:46 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

The Memphis Grizzlies will beat the Sacramento Kings, with a projected score of Grizzlies 118, Kings 114. Memphis gets the edge after its late defensive stand at Golden State, but Zach Edey's reported absence weakens that argument against Sacramento's frontcourt. Neither Memphis -4.5 (-110) nor the total of 236.5 (-110) offers a convincing wager. The official recommendation is Pass.

Memphis Grizzlies vs Sacramento Kings prediction and best bet

Memphis gets the winner call on the strength of its 2-0 start and Friday's 111-108 victory at Golden State. The NBA's matchup preview reports that the Grizzlies recovered from a 106-94 deficit while holding the Warriors to two points over the final 3:47. That is a useful example of defensive execution under pressure, although one finish deserves limited weight.

The best betting decision is Pass. Edey contributed 10 rebounds and two blocks in that victory, but Sunday's injury report lists him out. His absence makes the frontcourt matchup less favorable for Memphis. Sacramento has enough injury and shooting concerns of its own to keep the Kings from becoming an automatic spread selection.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Game: Memphis Grizzlies at Sacramento Kings, 2026-27 NBA season, Sunday, October 25, 2026, at 9 p.m. ET.

Venue: Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California.

Records: Memphis Grizzlies 0-0; Sacramento Kings 0-0.

Injuries: Memphis lists Edey out and Cedric Coward questionable. Sacramento lists Keegan Murray questionable, with Ben Simmons, Maxime Raynaud and Dylan Cardwell out.

SportsJaw moneyline: Memphis -180; Sacramento +155.

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

SportsJaw odds: Memphis Grizzlies -3.5 (-105); Sacramento Kings +3.5 (-107). Moneyline: Memphis Grizzlies -160; Sacramento Kings +140. Total: Over 234.5 (-110); Under 234.5 (-110).

Memphis Grizzlies outlook

Memphis brings the stronger opening record and a concrete example of successful late defense. Friday's comeback at Golden State required the Grizzlies to erase a 12-point deficit in less than four minutes. Holding the Warriors to two points during that stretch is the strongest recent performance detail behind the forecast. It also shows how close Memphis came to leaving with a loss.

Edey's contribution makes his reported absence particularly relevant. The NBA preview credits him with eight points, 10 rebounds, three assists, two blocks and one steal against Golden State, along with a plus-25. That single-game plus-minus is encouraging, but it cannot isolate his impact from the other players on the floor. His rebounding and blocks are more direct reasons to question how easily Memphis can repeat that defensive finish.

Coward is questionable with a wrist injury, adding another availability concern. The older statistical baseline is also cautionary: Memphis averaged 114.7 points scored and 120.7 allowed in 2025-26, with 42.1 rebounds collected and 46.8 conceded per game. Those figures describe last season. They temper enthusiasm about laying points without outweighing the encouraging start to this one.

Sacramento Kings outlook

Sacramento enters 0-0, with Murray's ankle adding uncertainty after Friday's loss to Portland. Sports Illustrated reports that he tweaked the ankle and did not return to the closing lineup, although coach Doug Christie said he had been ready to play after going to the back. Murray remains questionable with left ankle capsulitis. That distinction matters: the forecast should neither count him out nor assume an unrestricted appearance.

His opening production has been modest. Through two games, Murray averaged 7.0 points and 3.0 rebounds, shot 29.4% from the field and had not made a three-pointer. Two games are a small sample, but they offer no immediate evidence of the perimeter lift Sacramento needs. Simmons is out for the season, while Raynaud and Cardwell are also unavailable.

Last season's shooting and defense explain the reluctance to back Sacramento outright. The Kings averaged 111.0 points and allowed 121.0 per game. Their 10.3 made threes per game and 34.0% accuracy both ranked last, while opponents shot 37.9% from three, the league's second-worst defensive mark. Edey's absence offers a more favorable assignment for Domantas Sabonis, but it does not erase Sacramento's own weaknesses.

Key matchup factors

Frontcourt availability carries more weight here than the difference between two early records. The NBA preview highlights Edey against Sabonis, but the subsequent injury report lists Edey out. That changes the matchup underlying the preview and reduces confidence in carrying Friday's defensive performance into Sunday.

The spread consensus also points in different directions. At the October 25 update of 12:37 p.m. UTC, the combined consensus favored Sacramento +4.5 at 52%. SportsJaw members and qualified handicappers each favored Memphis -4.5 at 80%. These are separate selection measures, not winning probabilities. Their disagreement adds context to a close spread decision; it supplies no independent reason to assume either side is underpriced.

Memphis Grizzlies vs Sacramento Kings spread prediction

Pass on Memphis -4.5 (-110) and Sacramento +4.5 (-110). The projected four-point Memphis victory falls inside Sacramento's spread, but a half-point difference between a forecast and the line is too fragile to justify the wager by itself.

Edey's absence is the strongest argument against laying points. Sacramento's defensive history, winless start and Murray's uncertain status are the strongest objections to taking them. Memphis can be the likelier winner without either spread price being attractive. The competing injury concerns leave too much uncertainty around the expected margin.

Memphis Grizzlies vs Sacramento Kings total prediction

Pass on Over 236.5 (-110) and Under 236.5 (-110). The projected 232 points lean below the line, but the scoring evidence is mixed. Both teams allowed more than 120 points per game last season, and Edey's absence raises questions about Memphis' interior defense.

Sacramento's older shooting weaknesses and Murray's ankle pull the analysis in the other direction. SportsJaw members and qualified handicappers each favor Over 236.5 at 100%, but those selection percentages are not forecasts of its probability. Neither direction has enough support for an official total wager.

Memphis Grizzlies vs Sacramento Kings projected score

Game forecast: Grizzlies 118, Kings 114. Memphis earns the selection through its better opening results and the defensive execution shown in Friday's comeback. The projection gives Sacramento enough offense to stay close without assuming that last season's defensive problems have disappeared.

The strongest counterargument is that Edey helped produce the very performance supporting Memphis, and he is now listed out. Sacramento could benefit from that change around the basket, while Murray's status introduces uncertainty in the opposite direction. Confidence is low because the evidence for a Memphis edge is narrow and sensitive to personnel. The winner remains Memphis; both spread sides and both total directions are passes. The single official SportsJaw betting recommendation is Pass.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

Grizzlies118

Kings114

Projected winner Memphis GrizzliesConfidencelow
Pick on the Spread

Published pick: Pass (article line changed)

Pick on the Total

Published pick: Pass (article line changed)

Sources

  • NBA.comMemphis Grizzlies vs Sacramento Kings Oct 25, 2026 Game Summary
  • FOX Sports AM 1280Grizzlies vs. Kings Injury Report – Oct. 25
  • Sports Illustrated / Inside the KingsKings Gain Clarity on Keegan Murray's Injury Status Before Grizzlies Game

SportsJaw Grizzlies vs Kings game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Grizzlies vs Kings matchups or learn how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Crowd vs qualified handicappers

Spread crowd
Memphis Grizzlies -3.5 (-105) · 80%
Spread qualified handicappers
Memphis Grizzlies -3.5 (-105) · 80%
Total crowd
Over 234.5 (-110) · 100%
Total qualified handicappers
Over 234.5 (-110) · 100%
Qualified handicappers need at least 20 graded picks and a 52.5% win rate. A market needs at least three current qualified picks. Selection share is not a win probability.

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · Memphis Grizzlies-160 → -160Unchanged
  • Moneyline · Sacramento Kings+160 → +140Moved
  • Spread · Memphis Grizzlies-5.5 (-110) → -3.5 (-105)Moved
  • Spread · Sacramento Kings+5.5 (-110) → +3.5 (-107)Moved
  • Total · Over236.5 (-110) → 234.5 (-110)Moved
  • Total · Under236.5 (-110) → 234.5 (-110)Moved

ATS and O/U trends

Memphis Grizzlies
0-0 matchup record · 6-4-0 ATS · 3-7-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file
Sacramento Kings
0-0 matchup record · 5-5-0 ATS · 6-4-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2026-10-25T12:46:26.109Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

The best betting decision is Pass. Edey contributed 10 rebounds and two blocks in that victory, but Sunday's injury report lists him out. His absence makes the frontcourt matchup less favorable for Memphis. Sacramento has enough injury and shooting concerns of its own to keep the Kings from becoming an automatic spread selection.

Injuries: Memphis lists Edey out and Cedric Coward questionable. Sacramento lists Keegan Murray questionable, with Ben Simmons, Maxime Raynaud and Dylan Cardwell out.

Coward is questionable with a wrist injury, adding another availability concern. The older statistical baseline is also cautionary: Memphis averaged 114.7 points scored and 120.7 allowed in 2025-26, with 42.1 rebounds collected and 46.8 conceded per game. Those figures describe last season. They temper enthusiasm about laying points without outweighing the encouraging start to this one.

Recent head-to-head

  • 2026-02-23Sacramento Kings 123 · Memphis Grizzlies 114
  • 2026-02-04Memphis Grizzlies 129 · Sacramento Kings 125
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