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Indiana vs New Orleans consensus picks

Indiana Pacers56%
44%New Orleans Pelicans
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Indiana Pacers vs New Orleans Pelicans Predictions Today

Game time: October 21, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET

Venue: Smoothie King Center — New Orleans, LA

Article updated Oct 20, 11:14 PM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

The Indiana Pacers will beat the New Orleans Pelicans, Pacers 120, Pelicans 117, in a low-confidence forecast for their season opener. Tyrese Haliburton’s efficient preseason scoring and passing give Indiana the strongest recent offensive signal, with Ivica Zubac adding productive exhibitions. Neither Indiana -3.5 (-110) nor the 239.5 total offers a convincing betting edge, so the official recommendation is Pass.

Indiana Pacers vs New Orleans Pelicans prediction and best bet

Indiana is the pick to win, but laying 3.5 points asks more than this forecast delivers. A three-point Pacers victory would leave Indiana backers short of a cover. The best betting decision is Pass, with neither the spread nor the total offering enough separation from a plausible close-game outcome.

Haliburton’s preseason production supplies a reason to favor the visitors. Zubac and Pascal Siakam add encouraging individual indicators. The limitation is how much weight to give exhibition performances against a New Orleans team with established scorers and a favorable recent home history in this matchup.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Date and season: October 21, 2026. Indiana visits New Orleans in the NBA’s 2026-27 regular-season opener for both teams.

Venue: Smoothie King Center in New Orleans.

SportsJaw moneyline: Indiana Pacers -155; New Orleans Pelicans +136.

SportsJaw odds: Indiana Pacers -3.5 (-110); New Orleans Pelicans +3.5 (-110). Moneyline: Indiana Pacers -155; New Orleans Pelicans +136. Total: Over 239.5 (-107); Under 239.5 (-107).

SportsJaw total: Over 239.5 (-107); Under 239.5 (-107).

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

Consensus update: October 21 at 03:06 UTC. Indiana -3.5 (-110) leads the blended spread consensus at 58%, while Under 239.5 (-107) leads the blended total consensus at 63%. Those percentages describe selection support, not the probability of either wager winning.

Indiana Pacers outlook

Haliburton played three of Indiana’s four preseason games, producing 48 points and 15 assists. He shot 19-for-36 from the field and 8-for-15 from three. The combination of scoring and passing is the strongest reason to expect Indiana to generate enough offense to win this opener.

His two dated performances offer useful context: 24 points in 17 minutes at Oklahoma City on October 13, followed by 17 points and six assists in 20 minutes against Milwaukee on October 16. Those were productive short appearances, although they leave considerable uncertainty about a full regular-season game.

The Pacers’ team preview also credited Zubac with a double-double before halftime in each of their final two exhibitions. Siakam enters with a 72-game double-figure scoring streak dating to March 22, 2025. Together, those indicators give the forecast support beyond Haliburton’s shooting alone.

New Orleans Pelicans outlook

Trey Murphy III offers the clearest established scoring benchmark for New Orleans. He led the Pelicans with 21.5 points per game in 2025-26. The roster also includes former All-Stars Zion Williamson and Dejounte Murray, giving Indiana more than one prominent offensive player to account for.

Jeremiah Fears averaged 14.3 points and 3.4 assists in the preseason figures cited by Indiana’s preview. Derik Queen averaged 11.7 points and 7.1 rebounds. Their contributions broaden the Pelicans’ offensive possibilities, but those averages should not be treated as guaranteed opening-night production.

New Orleans also has the better recent history at this venue. Indiana has lost its last five visits, with its most recent win coming in overtime on January 4, 2021. That record is a reason for caution about the road favorite, rather than a prediction that the sequence must continue.

Key matchup factors

The central question is whether Indiana’s encouraging individual performances translate into a collective advantage. Haliburton’s shooting can lift the Pacers’ scoring ceiling, while Zubac’s double-doubles suggest another source of production. Neither indicator measures how effectively New Orleans will defend them.

The Pelicans’ counterweight is their range of potential contributors. Murphy’s prior-season scoring and the preseason output from Fears and Queen make a competitive home performance plausible. That is why the projected margin stays small despite Indiana getting the winner selection.

SportsJaw members favor Indiana -3.5 (-110) at 55%, and qualified handicappers favor that side at 58%. These are separate groups. Their agreement reinforces the direction of the forecast, but it is not an independent measure of Indiana’s expected winning margin.

Indiana Pacers vs New Orleans Pelicans spread prediction

Spread recommendation: Pass on Indiana Pacers -3.5 (-110) and New Orleans Pelicans +3.5 (-110).

The projected three-point margin falls just inside the Pelicans’ spread. That makes taking Indiana unattractive, but the half-point difference between the forecast and New Orleans’ allowance is too fragile to justify backing the home underdog.

Indiana’s recent offensive indicators favor an outright win. New Orleans’ scoring options and home matchup history keep the cover uncertain. With the same -110 price on either side, this is a market to leave alone.

Indiana Pacers vs New Orleans Pelicans total prediction

Total recommendation: Pass on Over 239.5 (-107) and Under 239.5 (-107).

The 237-point projection points toward the Under. SportsJaw members also favor Under 239.5 (-107) at 83%, compared with 80% among qualified handicappers and 58% in the sportsbook split. The 63% blended figure combines sportsbook and community support; it is not model confidence.

That agreement is notable, but the scoring evidence here centers on individual offensive production. A 2.5-point gap below the total leaves little room for a better shooting night. The Under is the directional preference, without becoming an actionable recommendation.

Indiana Pacers vs New Orleans Pelicans projected score

Game forecast: Pacers 120, Pelicans 117. Indiana gets the nod on Haliburton’s preseason efficiency, with supporting production from Zubac and Siakam’s scoring consistency.

The strongest counterargument is New Orleans’ combination of scoring personnel and five consecutive home wins over Indiana. Exhibition results offer an imperfect guide to this opener, so confidence is low. The winner remains Indiana; the single official SportsJaw betting recommendation is Pass.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

Pacers120

Pelicans117

Projected winner Indiana PacersConfidencelow
Pick on the Spread

Published pick: Pass on Indiana Pacers -3.5 (-110) and New Orleans Pelicans +3.5 (-110)

Pick on the Total

Published pick: Pass on Over 239.5 (-107) and Under 239.5 (-107)

Sources

  • Indiana Pacers / NBA.comGame Preview: Pacers at Pelicans
  • NBA.comNBA rosters set for 2026-27 regular season

SportsJaw Pacers vs Pelicans game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Pacers vs Pelicans matchups or learn how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Crowd vs qualified handicappers

Spread crowd
Indiana Pacers -3.5 (-110) · 55%
Spread qualified handicappers
Indiana Pacers -3.5 (-110) · 58%
Total crowd
Under 239.5 (-107) · 83%
Total qualified handicappers
Under 239.5 (-107) · 80%
Qualified handicappers need at least 20 graded picks and a 52.5% win rate. A market needs at least three current qualified picks. Selection share is not a win probability.

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · Indiana Pacers-153 → -155Moved
  • Moneyline · New Orleans Pelicans+135 → +136Moved
  • Spread · Indiana Pacers-3.5 (-112) → -3.5 (-110)Moved
  • Spread · New Orleans Pelicans+3.5 (-108) → +3.5 (-110)Moved
  • Total · Over241.5 (-102) → 239.5 (-107)Moved
  • Total · Under241.5 (-112) → 239.5 (-107)Moved

ATS and O/U trends

Indiana Pacers
0-0 matchup record · 6-4-0 ATS · 7-3-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file
New Orleans Pelicans
0-0 matchup record · 7-2-1 ATS · 3-7-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2026-10-21T03:14:45.158Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

No verified injury or availability note was included in the published matchup research.

Recent head-to-head

No completed head-to-head result is available in the current history window.

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