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  1. Home
  2. MLB Picks
  3. Miami Marlins vs New York Mets
Wed 7:10 PM ET
Miami Marlins logo
Miami
Marlins4
J. Cueto RHP
versus
New York Mets logo
New York
Mets2
K. Senga RHP · 12–7, 2.96 ERA
Final
Team123456789T
Miami Marlins1001000024
New York Mets010100000

Mets Aim for Series Finale Win over Marlins as Kodai Senga Squares Off Against Sandy Alcantara

Game time: September 27, 2023 at 7:10 PM ET

Venue: Citi Field — Queens, New York

Article updated Sep 27, 2:15 AM EDT

Published by SportsJaw Editorial Team

Despite the difference in record, the Mets have had Miami's number this season, and the two teams will face off one more time, in a series finale beginning Wednesday night at

Game outlook

Despite the difference in record, the Mets have had Miami's number this season, and the two teams will face off one more time, in a series finale beginning Wednesday night at 7:10 p.m. EDT at Citi Field. Sandy Alcantara (ERA: 4.24) The Miami Marlins (81-75) and New York Mets (71-85) will face off one last time for a three-game series, with the Mets leading 7-3 this season. Sandy Alcantara (ERA: 4.24) will be the starting pitcher for Marlins and Kodai Senga (ERA: 2.96) will be starting for Mets. New York is the betting favorite opening at -162 and the line hasn't moved. The series finale will begin Wednesday night at 7:10 p.m. EDT at Citi Field.

Game Info

When: Wednesday, 9/27/2023 @ 7:10pm EST

Where: Citi Field Stadium Marlins vs Mets Betting Odds Moneyline: Marlins +136 | Mets -162

Spread: Marlins +1.5 (-142) | Mets -1.5 (+120)

Total: Over/Under 8.5 (-110)

Based on the moneyline, the implied probability that New York will win straight-up is 62%.

Miami Marlins

Miami needs to tie or beat the Diamondbacks and Cubs to secure one of the Nationals final two wild-card spots. Injuries, including Eury Perez and Sandy Alcantara, have taken their toll throughout the season. Miami’s pitching is ranked 8th in WAR and groundball rate and the offense is ranked 26th in runs per game. The Marlins have an overall power ranking of 18, leaving them 81-75 this season.

2
MLB · Miami Marlins at New York Mets

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New York Mets Analysis

Kodai Senga : 2.35 ERA in home starts with 1.80 ERA and 17.1 innings against Miami with 13 hits and 4 runs earned the win in all 3 performances Offense : 20th in scoring, 11th in strikeout rate and home runs, highest SB percentage (89%), lowest BAT (.239), 31.6% hard-hit rate (23rd) Overall : Power ranking of 7, #20 for offense (average 4.42 points per game), #18 for defense (average 4.53 points per game), 71-85 overall Miami : Winners in 2-1 in recent matchups against New York

New York Mets Look to Take Advantage of Poor Road Record as Marlins Face Kodai Senga at Home

Kodai Senga boasts a 2.35 ERA in 15 starts at home. He has yet to lose against the Marlins this season, limiting Miami to four runs in three home games. With the series shifting to Queens--where Senga has historically performed better and the Marlins weaker offensively--another strong performance can be expected from New York's rookie. Miami, on the other hand, may need to rely on bullpen or try Johnny Cueto as a starter; a move which comes with risks considering Cueto's 6.19 ERA and allowing two runs to the Mets in 2.0 innings during the previous week. This matchup between the Mets--whose lineup outperforms the Marlins--and Miami--which holds a 35-40 record away from home--appears to favor New York.

Written by Roycejacobs Published on 09/27/2023 Category: MLB Picks

About the Author: Finance major and sports betting aficionado who honed their skills on fantasy sports. I bring years of analytical and stats experience to sports betting. Follow me this year as I pick the bookies apart and share my picks with my followers. Let's Go!

SportsJawGame Predictions
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Projected winnerUnavailableConfidencelow
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#MiamiMarlins#NewYorkMets

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Written by

SportsJaw Editorial Team

SportsJaw published this archived preview from its original game-day article. Its prediction and quoted lines are preserved as written.

About our editorial process

SportsJaw Marlins vs Mets archived game preview contains historical odds and availability that may no longer be current. View history of past Marlins vs Mets matchups or learn how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · Miami Marlins+136 → +135Moved
  • Moneyline · New York Mets-162 → -150Moved
  • Spread · Miami Marlins+1.5 (-142) → +1.5 (-160)Moved
  • Spread · New York Mets-1.5 (+120) → -1.5 (+140)Moved
  • Total · Over8.5 (-110) → 8 (-110)Moved
  • Total · Under8.5 (-110) → 8 (-110)Moved

ATS and O/U trends

Miami Marlins
80-75 matchup record · 5-5-0 ATS · 7-2-1 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file
New York Mets
73-83-1 matchup record · 8-2-0 ATS · 5-4-1 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2023-09-27T06:15:39.288Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

Miami needs to tie or beat the Diamondbacks and Cubs to secure one of the Nationals final two wild-card spots. Injuries, including Eury Perez and Sandy Alcantara, have taken their toll throughout the season. Miami’s pitching is ranked 8th in WAR and groundball rate and the offense is ranked 26th in runs per game. The Marlins have an overall power ranking of 18, leaving them 81-75 this season.

Recent head-to-head

  • 2023-09-27Miami Marlins 2 · New York Mets 11
  • 2023-09-20New York Mets 8 · Miami Marlins 3
  • 2023-09-19New York Mets 3 · Miami Marlins 4
  • 2023-09-18New York Mets 2 · Miami Marlins 1
Final result

Matchup pick recap

Miami Marlins defeated New York Mets 4-2

Miami Marlins defeated New York Mets 4-2 on September 27, 2023, a 2-run decision in the series. Miami Marlins' strongest period was the 9th inning, when it outscored its opponent 2-0. Against SportsJaw's recorded Miami Marlins +1.5 (-160) spread, Miami Marlins covered, while the 6 combined runs finished under the recorded total of 8.

SportsJaw editorial picks

  • Projected winnerNo published selectionUnavailable

Tipster picks

  • Steve512Moneyline · Miami Marlins +136Win
  • VegaspatMoneyline · New York Mets -162Loss
  • MikehuffMoneyline · Miami Marlins +136Win
  • CoolioMoneyline · New York Mets -162Loss
  • OddssharkMoneyline · New York Mets -162Loss
  • OddssharkTotal · Over 8.5 (-110)Loss
  • AliencreationRunline · Miami Marlins +1.5 (-142)Win
  • HopkinspicksTotal · Under 8.5 (-110)Win
  • JtgarciaMoneyline · New York Mets -120Loss
  • 1707662905Moneyline · New York Mets -120Loss
  • CoversMoneyline · Miami Marlins +119Win