New York Mets vs Washington Nationals prediction: Nationals narrowly favored, best bet is Pass
The Washington Nationals will beat the New York Mets, 4-3, in our September 26 forecast. Connelly Early's lower season ERA across a larger innings sample gives Washington the strongest individual matchup advantage, supported by the Nationals' higher scoring average. Confidence is low, however, and Washington's -108 moneyline is not an actionable wager given the bullpen counterweight and incomplete current-form picture.
New York Mets vs Washington Nationals prediction and best bet
Washington is the projected winner, but the official best bet is Pass. Early's season performance and the Nationals' offensive baseline tilt the forecast toward the home team. Those advantages make Washington competitive with a Mets club priced as the favorite at -136.
The difficulty is carrying that starting-pitching advantage through nine innings. New York has the better full-season relief numbers, while Early's three-start summary includes a June appearance and should not be treated as September momentum. Washington +116 deserves consideration, but the evidence leaves too much uncertainty around the size of its edge. A narrow Nationals victory is the forecast; neither the run line nor the total earns a recommendation.
Odds, game time and how to watch
Game: New York Mets at Washington Nationals, MLB, September 26, 2026.
First pitch: 12:35 p.m. EDT. Venue: Nationals Park.
Probable starters: Jonah Tong, Mets right-hander; Connelly Early, Nationals left-hander.
Records: New York Mets 68-69; Washington Nationals 67-73.
SportsJaw moneylines: New York -136; Washington +116.