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  1. Home
  2. MLB Picks
  3. Cincinnati Reds vs Toronto Blue Jays
Sat 3:07 PM ET
Cincinnati Reds logo
Cincinnati
Reds5
R. Lowder RHP
versus
Toronto Blue Jays logo
Toronto
Blue Jays1
T. Yesavage RHP
Final
Team123456789T
Cincinnati Reds0120200005
Toronto Blue Jays00000010

Cincinnati Reds vs Toronto Blue Jays prediction and odds for Sept. 26: Toronto favored, best bet Pass

Game time: September 26, 2026 at 3:07 PM ET

Venue: Rogers Centre — Toronto, Ontario

Article updated Sep 26, 9:57 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

The Toronto Blue Jays will beat the Cincinnati Reds, projected at Blue Jays 5, Reds 3, behind Trey Yesavage's stronger season performance and Rhett Lowder's recent struggles. Toronto has the clearer pitching advantage, but Yesavage's short return outing and a busy bullpen complicate the margin. Neither Toronto -1.5 (+135) nor the supplied total of 8 offers a strong enough case for an official wager.

Cincinnati Reds vs Toronto Blue Jays prediction and best bet

Toronto is the winner pick, with medium confidence. Yesavage's 3.67 season ERA compares favorably with Lowder's 6.01, and Cincinnati's starter has struggled even more recently. Lowder's last five listed starts produced a 10.62 ERA and an average of four innings, creating an opening for Toronto to take control early.

The best betting decision is Pass. Toronto's bullpen has excellent results, but 18 innings across its last three games also represents substantial work. Yesavage lasted only two innings in his Sept. 21 return. Those workload concerns matter when Toronto -1.5 (+135) needs a multiple-run victory. The pitching advantage supports the forecast more convincingly than it supports buying that margin.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Game: Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays, 2026 MLB season.

Time and venue: Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026, at 3:07 p.m. EDT, Rogers Centre.

Television: Sportsnet, Reds.TV and TVA Sports.

Probable starters: Cincinnati right-hander Rhett Lowder and Toronto right-hander Trey Yesavage, confirmed by MLB.com's current listing and Covers.

SportsJaw moneyline: Cincinnati +141; Toronto -157.

0
1
MLB · Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays

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21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

SportsJaw run line: Cincinnati +1.5 (-155); Toronto -1.5 (+135). Total: Over 8 (-105); Under 8 (-115). Toronto won the Sept. 25 series opener 6-5.

Cincinnati Reds outlook

Cincinnati's offensive counterargument starts with Eugenio Suárez and Elly De La Cruz. Suárez hit his 26th home run in Friday's loss, while De La Cruz recorded his 30th stolen base alongside 30 homers. Their power and speed give the Reds ways to change the score quickly, even if Toronto receives effective innings from Yesavage.

Lowder enters at 6-12 with a 6.01 ERA and 101 strikeouts. His Sept. 20 start against the Cubs lasted three innings: six hits, five runs, all earned, three walks and three strikeouts. He allowed no home runs, illustrating that the damage did not require a ball leaving the park.

The Sept. 15 outing against the Dodgers was better, with three earned runs over five innings, two walks and four strikeouts. But on Sept. 9 at Los Angeles, he surrendered seven earned runs in 3 1/3 innings. Against Milwaukee on Sept. 4, he allowed seven runs, six earned, in four innings with four walks.

Those short outings put pressure on Cincinnati's relief pitching. Covers lists the bullpen overall at a 4.21 ERA and 1.34 WHIP, with its available subset at 6.65 and 1.59. That subset's poor results are concerning, although they are not a prediction of what every reliever will allow Saturday.

Toronto Blue Jays outlook

Toronto's offense supplied a timely comeback Friday, scoring four runs in the seventh inning to win 6-5. Kazuma Okamoto finished with two doubles and three RBIs, bringing his team-leading total to 92. The rally included his two-run double and RBI singles from Guerrero and Nathan Lukes.

Yesavage brings a 5-5 record, 3.67 ERA and 1.13 WHIP into Saturday. Across 95 2/3 innings, he has allowed 62 hits, 40 runs, 39 earned runs, 11 home runs and 46 walks while striking out 94. The low hit total is encouraging; the walks remain a route for Cincinnati to create scoring chances.

His Sept. 21 return at Baltimore was brief but controlled: two innings, one hit, one run, one earned run, no walks and three strikeouts. The hit was a home run. That performance offers encouragement about his effectiveness without promising a long outing against Cincinnati.

Toronto's bullpen has a 2.94 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Over its last three games, it covered 18 innings with two earned runs and 17 strikeouts. Louis Varland pitched a perfect ninth Friday for his 35th save. Those results strengthen Toronto's forecast, while the innings total leaves workload as a meaningful concern if Yesavage exits early again.

Key matchup factors

The decisive question is how much of Toronto's season pitching advantage carries into Saturday's innings. Lowder's recent results favor an early Blue Jays lead. Yesavage's limited return outing raises the possibility that Toronto must protect that lead with another extended relief effort.

The Sept. 26 consensus update at 13:40 UTC also favors Toronto: the blended moneyline share is 84%, while SportsJaw community support and qualified-handicapper support are each 63%. Those are separate measures of selection preference, not Toronto's win probability. They align with the winner pick, but popularity adds no assurance of a two-run margin. Cincinnati's power threats and Toronto's bullpen workload remain the strongest reasons to keep the betting assessment cautious.

Cincinnati Reds vs Toronto Blue Jays spread prediction

Pass on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (+135) and Cincinnati Reds +1.5 (-155). Toronto's pitching advantage makes the favorite the more appealing side in principle, but the plus-money payout alone is insufficient reason to require a two-run win.

The projected margin is two runs, leaving a narrow distinction between the forecast and a losing Toronto run-line ticket. Yesavage's workload and Cincinnati's offensive threats make that distinction important. Cincinnati's cushion comes at -155, a demanding price given Lowder's recent trouble. Neither side earns an actionable recommendation.

Cincinnati Reds vs Toronto Blue Jays total prediction

Pass on Over 8 (-105) and Under 8 (-115). Lowder's recent run prevention and Cincinnati's available-bullpen figures create the strongest Over argument. Toronto's heavier relief workload adds uncertainty if Yesavage makes another short start.

The Under case rests on Yesavage's stronger season numbers and Toronto's successful relief work. Friday's 11 runs illustrate a scoring possibility, but one game is a small sample. The projected eight runs would produce a push at this line; that projection alone supplies no betting edge. The blended consensus leans Under at only 52%.

Cincinnati Reds vs Toronto Blue Jays Projected Score & Betting Picks

Game forecast: Toronto Blue Jays 5, Cincinnati Reds 3. Toronto has the stronger starting-pitcher profile and better overall bullpen results. Lowder's recent combination of runs allowed and short outings gives the Blue Jays the clearest path to a lead.

The strongest counterargument is the amount of work Toronto may need from its bullpen after Yesavage's two-inning return. Cincinnati also brings demonstrated home-run and stolen-base threats. Those factors keep confidence at medium and make the exact margin less convincing than the winner selection. Toronto is the projected winner, but both the run line and total are passes. The single official SportsJaw betting lean is Pass.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

Reds3

Blue Jays5

Projected winner Toronto Blue JaysConfidencemedium
Pick on the Spread

Published pick: Pass on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (+135) and Cincinnati Reds +1.5 (-155)

Pick on the Total

Published pick: Pass on Over 8 (-105) and Under 8 (-115)

Sources

  • CoversReds vs Blue Jays Game Overview, Stats, Injuries, Records - MLB Game on September 26, 2026
  • MLB.comBaseball Probable Pitchers
  • Toronto Blue Jays / MLB.comBlue Jays Probable Pitchers
#CincinnatiReds#TorontoBlueJays

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Written by

SportsJaw Editorial Team

SportsJaw's editorial organization researches matchup data, current odds, injuries and reporting, then validates each published preview against its listed sources and displayed markets.

About our editorial process

SportsJaw Reds vs Blue Jays game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Reds vs Blue Jays matchups or learn how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · Cincinnati Reds+134 → +139Moved
  • Moneyline · Toronto Blue Jays-158 → -165Moved
  • Spread · Cincinnati Reds+1.5 (-170) → +1.5 (-150)Moved
  • Spread · Toronto Blue Jays-1.5 (+140) → -1.5 (+130)Moved
  • Total · Over8.5 (+112) → 8 (-118)Moved
  • Total · Under8.5 (-138) → 8 (-102)Moved

ATS and O/U trends

Cincinnati Reds
59-77 matchup record · 6-4-0 ATS · 4-5-1 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file
Toronto Blue Jays
72-67 matchup record · 4-6-0 ATS · 7-3-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2026-09-26T04:34:54.533Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

No verified injury or availability note was included in the published matchup research.

Recent head-to-head

  • 2026-09-25Cincinnati Reds 5 · Toronto Blue Jays 6
Final result

Matchup pick recap

Cincinnati Reds defeated Toronto Blue Jays 5-1

Cincinnati Reds defeated Toronto Blue Jays 5-1 on September 26, 2026, a 4-run decision in the series. Cincinnati Reds' strongest period was the 3rd inning, when it outscored its opponent 2-0. Against SportsJaw's recorded Cincinnati Reds +1.5 (-150) spread, Cincinnati Reds covered, while the 6 combined runs finished under the recorded total of 8.

SportsJaw editorial picks

  • Projected winnerToronto Blue JaysLoss
  • SpreadPass on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (+135) and Cincinnati Reds +1.5 (-155)Pass
  • TotalPass on Over 8 (-105) and Under 8 (-115)Pass

Tipster picks

  • 1188460207Moneyline · Toronto Blue Jays -158Loss
  • VfernandezMoneyline · Cincinnati Reds +134Win
  • HopkinspicksTotal · Under 8.5 (-138)Win
  • DerekFisherMoneyline · Toronto Blue Jays -158Loss
  • Fisher49Total · Over 8.5 (+112)Loss
  • Lockpicker69Moneyline · Toronto Blue Jays -158Loss
  • JtphamMoneyline · Cincinnati Reds +134Win
  • Teddy718Moneyline · Cincinnati Reds +134Win
  • Josh720Moneyline · Toronto Blue Jays -158Loss
  • BluedevilMoneyline · Toronto Blue Jays -158Loss