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MLB MatchupsSat 3:07 PM ET
Cincinnati Reds logo
Cincinnati
Reds
R. Lowder RHP
versus
Toronto Blue Jays logo
Toronto
Blue Jays
T. Yesavage RHP
MLB · CIN at TOR

Your Picks on Reds vs Blue Jays

Picks close 15 minutes before game time (ET)
Runline
Moneyline
Total

Cincinnati vs Toronto consensus picks

Over64%
36%Under

Cincinnati Reds vs Toronto Blue Jays Predictions Today: Rhett Lowder vs Trey Yesavage

Game time: September 26, 2026 at 3:07 PM ET

Venue: Rogers Centre — Toronto, Ontario

Article updated Sep 26, 12:34 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

The Toronto Blue Jays will beat the Cincinnati Reds, with a projected score of Blue Jays 5, Reds 3. Trey Yesavage's stronger season numbers and Rhett Lowder's recent struggles give Toronto the pitching advantage. However, Yesavage's brief return from injury and Toronto's heavy bullpen workload weaken the betting case. Neither the supplied run line nor total offers a convincing wager; the official recommendation is Pass.

Cincinnati Reds vs Toronto Blue Jays prediction and best bet

Toronto gets the nod because the starting-pitching comparison favors Yesavage. His 3.67 ERA and 1.13 WHIP are considerably better than Lowder's 6.01 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. Lowder also allowed 15 earned runs over 11⅓ innings across his September 9, 15 and 20 starts. That gives the Blue Jays a plausible route to an early lead.

Turning that advantage into a bet requires more certainty about the innings after the starters leave. Yesavage pitched only two innings in his return from the injured list, and Toronto's bullpen has worked heavily. The forecast is Blue Jays 5, Reds 3, with low confidence. The best betting decision is Pass.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Game: Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays, 2026 MLB regular season. Saturday, September 26, at 3:07 p.m. EDT.

Venue: Rogers Centre. Broadcast: Sportsnet, Reds.TV and TVA Sports.

Records: Cincinnati 74-86; Toronto 78-82. Last 10 games: Reds 4-6; Blue Jays 3-7.

Probable starters: Right-handers Rhett Lowder for Cincinnati and Trey Yesavage for Toronto.

SportsJaw odds: Cincinnati moneyline +134; Toronto moneyline -160. Run line: Cincinnati +1.5 (-160); Toronto -1.5 (+135). Total: Over 7.5 (-125); Under 7.5 (+105).

Cincinnati Reds outlook

Cincinnati scored five runs in Friday's 6-5 defeat at Toronto, keeping the opener close despite another loss. That result is a useful counterweight to a forecast centered on the Reds' pitching problems: Toronto still needed six runs to win. Cincinnati's 4-6 record over its last 10 games is also better than Toronto's 3-7 mark.

Lowder enters with a 6-12 record, 6.01 ERA, 1.55 WHIP and 101 strikeouts in 127⅓ innings across 28 games. His last seven games have been worse than that season baseline: 44 hits, 31 earned runs and 14 walks in 33 innings, with 24 strikeouts, an 8.45 ERA and 1.76 WHIP.

On September 20 against the Cubs, he allowed six hits, five runs, all earned, and three walks over three innings, with three strikeouts and no home runs. Against the Dodgers on September 15, he yielded five hits, three runs, all earned, one homer and two walks across five innings, striking out four.

His September 9 outing at Los Angeles brought seven earned runs in 3⅓ innings. Cincinnati needs a substantial improvement in both run prevention and length. Its bullpen carries a listed 4.71 ERA and 1.41 WHIP, while Chase Burns remains on the 15-day injured list.

Toronto Blue Jays outlook

Toronto's season advantage on the mound is clear, although Yesavage's immediate workload is less certain. He is 5-5 through 19 starts with a 3.67 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 94 strikeouts in 95⅔ innings. His season line includes 62 hits, 40 runs, 39 earned runs, 11 home runs and 46 walks. Those numbers make him the stronger starter in this matchup.

The recent record adds some caution. Across his last seven games, Yesavage has allowed 18 hits, 14 earned runs and 16 walks in 28⅓ innings, striking out 33. His 4.45 ERA in that window is higher than his season mark, even with a 1.20 WHIP. The walks leave room for Cincinnati to create chances without stringing together hits.

Toronto activated Yesavage from the injured list on September 21 after left-knee inflammation. That day's start at Baltimore lasted two innings: one hit, one run, earned, one homer, no walks and three strikeouts. His August 4 start at Houston also lasted two innings, with no hits or earned runs, one walk and no strikeouts.

Toronto's bullpen has covered 18 innings over its last three games. That workload matters if Yesavage exits early again. Dylan Cease and Jameson Taillon are listed as out for the season.

Key matchup factors

The decisive question is how much of the game Yesavage's advantage can influence. Lowder's recent outings suggest Toronto could build a lead early, but a short Yesavage start would move responsibility to a heavily used bullpen. The forecast favors Toronto without assuming that its starting-pitching edge lasts deep into the afternoon.

SportsJaw's moneyline community leader is Toronto -160 at 63%; the qualified-handicapper group also favors Toronto at 63%. Those figures describe selections, not Toronto's probability of winning. The total's combined consensus count favors Over by 385 selections to 217. That count incorporates a modeled sportsbook sample and SportsJaw participation; it is not an observed sportsbook ticket count.

Cincinnati Reds vs Toronto Blue Jays spread prediction

Pass on Toronto -1.5 (+135) and Cincinnati +1.5 (-160). Toronto's starting-pitching advantage supports the winner forecast, but covering requires a victory by at least two runs. Yesavage's short return and the bullpen workload make that extra requirement meaningful.

The projected two-run margin would cover Toronto's run line, but one score estimate is too thin a reason to take +135. Cincinnati's cushion is appealing in a potentially close game, yet paying -160 to back Lowder's recent form is difficult to justify. Neither side earns an official recommendation.

Cincinnati Reds vs Toronto Blue Jays total prediction

Pass on Over 7.5 (-125) and Under 7.5 (+105). Lowder's recent damage and Toronto's relief workload create a credible Over argument. The eight-run projection points in that direction, but only narrowly, and Yesavage's season performance gives Cincinnati a potentially difficult assignment.

The blended total consensus favors Over at 64%, while the community figure is 50%. That difference is worth keeping separate from the scoring forecast. With no verified offensive splits against right-handed pitching for either team, the case for paying -125 on the Over remains incomplete. Lowder's struggles also discourage an Under wager.

Cincinnati Reds vs Toronto Blue Jays projected score

Game forecast: Blue Jays 5, Reds 3. Toronto wins the comparison between the probable starters, and Lowder's recent earned-run totals suggest the home team can score enough to win. Yesavage's season record supports expecting better run prevention from Toronto at the beginning of the game.

The strongest counterargument is the workload surrounding Yesavage's return. A second short outing could leave Toronto asking a busy bullpen to protect its lead, while Cincinnati just scored five runs in the opener. Toronto's 3-7 stretch adds caution. Confidence is low: the winner selection is firmer than the projected margin or total. Both betting markets are passes, and the single official SportsJaw recommendation is Pass.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

CIN3

TOR5

Projected winner Toronto Blue JaysConfidenceSlight Lean — Toronto Blue Jays
Pick on the Spread

Slight Lean — Toronto Blue Jays -1.5

Editorial pick at publication: Pass on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (+135) and Cincinnati Reds +1.5 (-160)

Pick on the Total

No Lean

Editorial pick at publication: Pass (article line changed)

Sources

  • CoversReds vs Blue Jays Game Overview, Stats, Injuries, Records - MLB Game on September 26, 2026
  • MLB.comBaseball Probable Pitchers
  • MLB.com / Cincinnati RedsRhett Lowder Stats, Age, Position, Height, Weight, Fantasy & News

SportsJaw Reds vs Blue Jays game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Reds vs Blue Jays matchups or learn how our predictions work.

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