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MLB MatchupsFri 8:10 PM ET
Texas Rangers logo
Texas
Rangers
J. deGrom RHP
versus
Minnesota Twins logo
Minnesota
Twins
J. Ryan RHP
MLB · TEX at MIN

Your Picks on Rangers vs Twins

Picks close 15 minutes before game time (ET)
Runline
Moneyline
Total

Texas vs Minnesota consensus picks

TEX31%
69%MIN

Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins Predictions Today: Jacob deGrom vs Joe Ryan

Game time: September 25, 2026 at 8:10 PM ET

Venue: Target Field — Minneapolis, Minnesota

Article updated Sep 25, 9:23 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

The Texas Rangers will beat the Minnesota Twins 4-3 in our September 25 forecast, with Jacob deGrom’s recent strikeout and baserunner numbers providing the strongest matchup advantage. His latest start, Minnesota’s home record and Joe Ryan’s earlier success against Texas keep confidence low. At the supplied prices, including Texas moneyline -108, the official betting recommendation is Pass.

Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins prediction and best bet

Texas gets the nod because deGrom has been the more effective starter over the last five outings. He allowed 14 hits and six walks while striking out 37 in 26 innings. Ryan allowed 32 hits and five walks with 20 strikeouts in 21 1/3 innings. That difference gives the Rangers the stronger route to an early lead.

The betting decision is closer. Texas travels with a 34-44 road record, while Minnesota is 40-38 at home. DeGrom also struggled with his control in his latest start. Texas moneyline -108 is a modest price, but the advantages are too fragile to call it a clear bargain. The official recommendation is Pass.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Game: Friday, September 25, 2026, at 8:10 p.m. ET. This MLB matchup takes place at Target Field in Minneapolis.

Records: Texas is 79-80, second in the AL West. Minnesota is 75-84, third in the AL Central.

Probable starters: Right-handers Jacob deGrom for Texas and Joe Ryan for Minnesota.

SportsJaw moneylines: Texas -108; Minnesota -102.

Run lines: Texas -1.5 (+155); Minnesota +1.5 (-185).

Total: Over 7.5 (-109); Under 7.5 (-105).

Texas Rangers outlook

DeGrom enters with an 11-10 record, a 3.86 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP and 196 strikeouts, according to the Associated Press. Across his last five starts, he surrendered seven runs, all earned, and three home runs. His 37 strikeouts against six walks in that stretch are the most persuasive part of the Texas case.

The dated starts show both his upside and the risk. On September 10 at Seattle, deGrom allowed one hit and no walks while striking out 12 over six scoreless innings. He followed with five innings against Boston on September 15, allowing three hits and two earned runs with eight strikeouts. Against Toronto on September 20, however, he lasted 4 1/3 innings, allowing five hits, three earned runs and four walks with just two strikeouts.

Texas averages 4.16 runs per game, so even a strong start may leave little room for mistakes. Josh Jung offers a timely source of offense: he went 13-for-39 with four doubles, three homers and six RBIs over the preceding 10 games.

The relief staff has several injured pitchers. Covers lists Michel Otañez on the 15-day injured list and Cole Winn, Peyton Gray, Jalen Beeks and Carter Baumler on the 60-day list. Those absences make another abbreviated deGrom outing a concern.

Minnesota Twins outlook

Minnesota brings the stronger season scoring average at 4.53 runs per game. Its 184 home runs rank sixth in the American League, giving the Twins a credible way to change this matchup with one swing. Luke Keaschall went 13-for-39 with a double, triple, homer and five RBIs over the preceding 10 games.

Ryan’s season line includes a 6-10 record, a 1.18 WHIP and 151 strikeouts. His recent results are less reassuring: 32 hits, 18 runs, 16 earned runs, five homers and five walks allowed across 21 1/3 innings in five starts. He struck out 20 during that span.

On September 19 at the Angels, Ryan allowed seven hits and two earned runs in five innings, with one walk and five strikeouts. Against Cleveland on September 13, he allowed seven hits, four earned runs and two homers in four innings. At Detroit on September 7, he yielded three runs, two earned, across four innings.

There is meaningful counterevidence to the Texas pick. Ryan held the Rangers scoreless for five innings on June 18, allowing three hits and two walks with seven strikeouts. Minnesota also went 5-5 with a 2.96 team ERA in its preceding 10 games. Offensively, Trevor Larnach, Kaelen Culpepper and Byron Buxton are listed on the injured list, reducing the available personnel.

Key matchup factors

Minnesota’s current roster has a .167 batting average and .248 wOBA against deGrom in 46 career plate appearances. That small sample favors Texas, but the .510 expected slugging percentage and .349 expected wOBA suggest the contact has been more threatening than the results.

The consensus also contains disagreement. At the September 25 update around 13:14 UTC, Texas led the blended moneyline consensus at 62%. The combined equivalent sample contained 375 Texas selections and 230 Minnesota selections, incorporating modeled sportsbook participation rather than observed ticket totals. SportsJaw members and qualified handicappers each favored Minnesota at 60%. These are separate sentiment measures, not estimates of either team’s chance to win.

Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins spread prediction

Pass on Texas Rangers -1.5 (+155) and Minnesota Twins +1.5 (-185). The starting-pitching comparison favors Texas, but our one-run forecast leaves the Rangers short of covering. Ryan’s five scoreless innings against Texas in June provide a concrete reminder that he can keep this opponent within reach.

Minnesota +1.5 fits the projected margin, yet the -185 price demands more conviction than a low-confidence score forecast offers. Ryan’s recent traffic and home runs allowed also leave the Twins vulnerable to a wider defeat. Neither run line earns a wager.

Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins total prediction

Pass on Over 7.5 (-109) and Under 7.5 (-105). The projected seven runs point toward Under, but the scoring case pulls in both directions. DeGrom’s recent strikeouts favor run prevention; Ryan’s five homers allowed in five starts create an opening for Texas.

Minnesota’s power and deGrom’s four walks against Toronto are the main threats to a quiet game. The Twins’ recent 2.96 team ERA offers a counterweight to Ryan’s struggles, but it is not a bullpen-specific measure. A seven-run forecast alone is too thin an edge to justify Under 7.5.

Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins projected score

The forecast is Texas Rangers 4, Minnesota Twins 3, with low confidence. DeGrom’s recent ability to limit hits and generate strikeouts gives Texas the clearest individual advantage. Jung’s recent extra-base production adds a plausible offensive complement against a starter who has allowed frequent baserunners.

Minnesota’s winning home record, higher season scoring average and Ryan’s earlier success against Texas keep the forecast close. DeGrom’s latest outing also warns against assuming six dominant innings. Texas is the winner selection, but a narrow preference is not enough to recommend its moneyline at -108. Both run lines and both sides of the 7.5 total remain passes. The single official betting decision is Pass.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

TEX4

MIN3

Projected winner Texas RangersConfidenceSlight Lean — Minnesota Twins
Pick on the Spread

Slight Lean — Minnesota Twins +1.5

Editorial pick at publication: Pass on Texas Rangers -1.5 (+155) and Minnesota Twins +1.5 (-185).

Pick on the Total

No Lean

Editorial pick at publication: Pass (article line changed)

Sources

  • CoversRangers vs Twins Game Overview, Stats, Injuries, Records - MLB Game on September 25, 2026
  • MLB / Baseball SavantBaseball Savant Probable Pitchers
  • FOX Sports / Associated PressRangers look to break 3-game skid, take on the Twins

SportsJaw Rangers vs Twins game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Rangers vs Twins matchups or learn how our predictions work.

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