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MLB MatchupsFri 7:40 PM ET
St. Louis Cardinals logo
St. Louis
Cardinals
M. McGreevy RHP
versus
Milwaukee Brewers logo
Milwaukee
Brewers
R. Gasser LHP
MLB · STL at MIL

Your Picks on Cardinals vs Brewers

Picks close 15 minutes before game time (ET)
Runline
Moneyline
Total

St. Louis vs Milwaukee consensus picks

STL33%
67%MIL

St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers Predictions Today: Michael McGreevy vs Robert Gasser

Game time: September 25, 2026 at 7:40 PM ET

Venue: American Family Field — Milwaukee, Wisconsin

Article updated Sep 25, 9:02 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

The Milwaukee Brewers will beat the St. Louis Cardinals, projected at Brewers 4, Cardinals 3, on September 25. Milwaukee’s stronger season scoring profile and Robert Gasser’s two latest listed starts provide the best reasons to favor the home team. Neither Brewers -1.5 (+120) nor the total of 8 offers a compelling betting edge, so the official SportsJaw wager is Pass.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers prediction and best bet

Milwaukee gets the prediction because its advantages extend beyond the starting matchup. The Brewers average 5.13 runs scored and 3.82 allowed, compared with 4.47 scored and 4.60 allowed for St. Louis. Gasser also allowed just one earned run across his September 13 and September 19 starts, giving Milwaukee another reason to expect a competitive pitching performance.

The best betting decision is Pass. A projected one-run Milwaukee victory leaves Brewers -1.5 (+120) short of a cover, but that alone is no reason to pay -140 for Cardinals +1.5. Michael McGreevy’s previous success against Milwaukee and the Brewers’ recent relief workload make the margin less convincing than the winner.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Time: Friday, September 25, 2026, at 6:40 p.m. CDT, 7:40 p.m. ET.

Venue: American Family Field. Broadcast: Brewers.TV and Cardinals.TV.

Recent form: Covers lists St. Louis at 4-6 over its last 10 games and Milwaukee at 7-3.

Probable starters: Cardinals right-hander Michael McGreevy versus Brewers left-hander Robert Gasser.

SportsJaw moneylines: St. Louis +155; Milwaukee -180.

SportsJaw run lines: St. Louis +1.5 (-140); Milwaukee -1.5 (+120). Total: Over 8 (-105), Under 8 (-115).

St. Louis Cardinals outlook

St. Louis has a credible route to a close game through McGreevy. The official MLB probable-pitchers pages list him at 7-9 with a 3.84 ERA and 113 strikeouts. His July 8 start against Milwaukee is particularly relevant: one run, also earned, over 6 1/3 innings, with five hits, one walk and six strikeouts.

His September results have been less consistent. On September 13 against the White Sox, he allowed three hits and one earned run in six innings, walking three and striking out six. On September 19 against Washington, he allowed five hits, two earned runs and a homer in four innings, with one walk and one strikeout.

Across his last five listed starts, McGreevy allowed 29 hits, 17 runs and 16 earned runs in 25 1/3 innings. That window also included three home runs, 10 walks and 18 strikeouts. The traffic makes another dominant outing against Milwaukee a demanding expectation.

Covers lists the Cardinals at 39-39 on the road. Their relief staff carries a 4.50 ERA and 1.37 WHIP, reducing the appeal of relying on a narrow late lead. Outfielder Joshua Báez is on the 10-day injured list with a left oblique strain.

Milwaukee Brewers outlook

Milwaukee’s 52-26 home record complements its advantage in season scoring and run prevention. The Brewers offer the stronger overall team profile, although Gasser’s season line is not the main reason to expect a win. Official MLB probable-pitchers pages list him at 5-5 with a 4.01 ERA and 94 strikeouts.

His two latest listed starts are more persuasive. Against Cincinnati on September 13, Gasser allowed three hits and one earned run in five innings, with two walks and five strikeouts. At Baltimore on September 19, he delivered seven scoreless innings, allowing three hits and three walks while striking out two.

Across five listed starts, he allowed 16 hits, nine runs and eight earned runs in 20 2/3 innings, with one homer, 13 walks and 20 strikeouts. Those walks are the clearest concern: he has limited damage, but extra baserunners leave less room for mistakes.

Milwaukee’s bullpen has a 3.37 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, better than St. Louis in both measures. However, it covered 20 1/3 innings over the previous three games. That workload complicates expectations for the late innings without identifying which relievers are available. Grant Anderson and Bryse Wilson are on the 15-day injured list.

Key matchup factors

The career batter-pitcher samples favor Milwaukee, but their size matters. Current Cardinals hitters have a .167 average and .244 wOBA against Gasser in 41 plate appearances. Current Brewers hitters have a .325 average and .387 wOBA against McGreevy in 44. These are individual matchup histories, not team-wide splits against lefties or righties.

There is also a counterweight to Milwaukee’s actual results against McGreevy: its expected average is .252 and expected wOBA is .319 in that sample. Those figures temper the offensive advantage suggested by the actual results. The broader season scoring gap carries more weight in this forecast than either small collection of previous encounters.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers spread prediction

Pass on St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 (-140) and Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+120). Milwaukee is the winner selection, but the forecast stops at a one-run margin. McGreevy’s July performance makes a competitive Cardinals start plausible, while Milwaukee’s scoring advantage leaves the expensive underdog cushion vulnerable.

The September 25 blended spread consensus favors Milwaukee at 80%, with 480 Milwaukee selections against 120 for St. Louis in a combined modeled sample. Those counts combine modeled sportsbook support and SportsJaw participation; they are not observed sportsbook tickets. Popularity alone supplies no reason to lay the runs or fade Milwaukee.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers total prediction

Pass on Over 8 (-105) and Under 8 (-115). The seven-run projection leans below eight, but Gasser’s walks, McGreevy’s recent baserunners and Milwaukee’s relief workload leave credible paths to additional scoring. Gasser’s latest starts provide the strongest argument for a quieter game.

The blended total consensus is 63% toward Over 8, up three percentage points from September 24. Its recorded selection carries -104, distinct from the current SportsJaw Over price of -105. That support describes preference, not the probability of nine or more runs. Neither total price earns an official recommendation.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers projected score

Game forecast: Brewers 4, Cardinals 3. Milwaukee’s season scoring advantage, home performance and Gasser’s latest two starts make it the stronger winner selection. Confidence is medium: this is a supported but ordinary edge, with enough counterevidence to keep the projected margin close.

McGreevy’s July 8 outing is the strongest argument against the pick. A repeat would put pressure on a Milwaukee bullpen that has recently handled substantial innings. Gasser’s walks add another opening for St. Louis. The projection favors Milwaukee without demanding a comfortable victory, and its seven combined runs are not sufficient by themselves to justify Under 8 (-115). The single official SportsJaw wager remains Pass.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

STL3

MIL4

Projected winner Milwaukee BrewersConfidenceSlight Lean — St. Louis Cardinals
Pick on the Spread

Slight Lean — St. Louis Cardinals +1.5

Editorial pick at publication: Pass on St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 (-140) and Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+120).

Pick on the Total

Slight Lean — Under 8

Editorial pick at publication: Pass on Over 8 (-105) and Under 8 (-115).

Sources

  • St. Louis Cardinals / MLB.comCardinals Probable Pitchers
  • Milwaukee Brewers / MLB.comBrewers Probable Pitchers
  • MLB / Baseball SavantBaseball Savant Probable Pitchers

SportsJaw Cardinals vs Brewers game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Cardinals vs Brewers matchups or learn how our predictions work.

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