New York Mets vs Washington Nationals prediction: Nationals 4, Mets 3; betting pick is Pass
The Washington Nationals will beat the New York Mets 4-3 in our forecast, with Andrew Alvarez’s recent run prevention supplying the strongest reason to favor Washington. His 2.09 ERA over his last seven games gives the Nationals a plausible winning path, but New York’s bullpen advantage and unsettled starting assignment leave neither the supplied spread nor total attractive enough to bet. The official recommendation is Pass.
New York Mets vs Washington Nationals prediction and best bet
Washington is the pick in a close game, with low confidence. Alvarez has followed a solid season with an especially effective recent stretch, giving the Nationals a credible chance to beat the favored Mets. That is a reason to select Washington, although it is not proof of a starting-pitching advantage against an opponent whose starter remains unconfirmed.
The best betting decision is Pass. New York’s stronger season relief numbers work against Washington, while the unresolved Mets assignment complicates both the side and scoring outlook. A seven-run projection sits below 7.5, but that half-run difference alone is too thin a foundation for an Under wager.
Odds, game time and how to watch
Game: New York Mets at Washington Nationals, 2026 MLB season, Friday, September 25, at 6:45 p.m. EDT.
Venue: Nationals Park. Broadcast: WPIX and Nationals.TV.
Probable starters: Washington left-hander Andrew Alvarez; New York TBD, according to the official Nationals page.
SportsJaw moneyline: Mets -134; Nationals +114.
SportsJaw run line: Mets -1.5 (+125); Nationals +1.5 (-150).