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MLB MatchupsThu 2:20 PM ET
Miami Marlins logo
Miami
Marlins
T. Phillips RHP
versus
Chicago Cubs logo
Chicago
Cubs
M. Boyd LHP
MLB · MIA at CHC

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4-5 record · 44.44% wins
Last 30 days · MLB

$500 pick on the moneyline

Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs Predictions: Tyler Phillips vs Matthew Boyd

Game time: September 24, 2026 at 2:20 PM ET

Venue: Wrigley Field — Chicago, Illinois

Article updated Sep 24, 2:23 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

The Chicago Cubs will beat the Miami Marlins, Cubs 4, Marlins 3, in a low-confidence forecast for September 24. Matthew Boyd’s longer recent outings give Chicago the clearest matchup advantage against a Miami bullpen coming off a substantial workload. Tyler Phillips’ stronger run prevention keeps the margin narrow. Neither supplied run line nor the 7.5 total offers a convincing wager; the official recommendation is Pass.

Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs prediction and best bet

Chicago gets the winner pick because Boyd offers a better recent chance of carrying the game into the middle innings without an early bullpen handoff. Miami’s relievers have covered 13 1/3 innings over the previous three games, making another short Phillips outing a potential pressure point. That is a modest advantage, with Phillips pitching well enough to challenge it.

The best betting decision is Pass. A close Chicago win is a reasonable forecast, but neither a one-run margin nor seven combined runs should be treated as a precise betting threshold. The run lines require a firmer view of the margin, and the total needs more than encouraging recent pitching.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Game: Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs, MLB, September 24, 2026.

First pitch: 1:20 PM CDT, equivalent to 2:20 PM ET.

Venue: Wrigley Field.

Broadcast: MLB lists Marquee Sports Network and Marlins.TV presented by Werner, Hoffman, Greig & Garcia.

Probable starters: Miami right-hander Tyler Phillips against Chicago left-hander Matthew Boyd.

Miami record: 77-80, third in the NL East in the September 23 schedule update.

Miami Marlins outlook

Phillips gives Miami a credible route to winning this game. He enters the matchup at 5-6 with a 3.45 ERA, 99 strikeouts and a 1.31 WHIP across 122 2/3 innings. His season includes 109 hits, 47 earned runs, 17 home runs and 52 walks allowed. The ERA favors him over Boyd, although the walks and home runs remain potential ways for Chicago to score without sustained hitting.

His five-start sample through September 18 carries a 2.45 ERA, with averages of four strikeouts and two walks per appearance. The limitation is length: Phillips averaged 4 1/3 innings. On September 18 at San Diego, he allowed two hits and no runs over 3 2/3 innings, walking one and striking out three.

Against Chicago on September 6, Phillips allowed three earned runs, five hits and one homer over five innings in Miami’s 10-3 victory. That was a useful outing, but one meeting offers only a narrow look at this matchup.

Miami’s available relief group has a 3.97 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Its recent workload matters: those 13 1/3 innings over three games included six runs allowed, five earned. Another early handoff would ask that group to carry a substantial share again.

Chicago Cubs outlook

Boyd’s case rests more on limiting baserunners and recent innings than on superior run prevention. The left-hander is 9-5 with a 4.06 ERA and 93 strikeouts across 119 2/3 innings. He has allowed 109 hits, 54 earned runs, 15 home runs and 37 walks, with a 1.22 WHIP. That WHIP is lower than Phillips’ mark, while the ERA comparison favors Miami.

Across his five-start sample through September 19, Boyd averaged 5 2/3 innings with a 3.77 ERA. He averaged 4.4 strikeouts, 1.8 walks and 0.2 home runs allowed. His recent workload exceeded Phillips’ average by 1 1/3 innings, which could reduce the number of outs Chicago needs from its bullpen.

Boyd’s September 19 start at Cincinnati lasted five innings. He allowed two hits and two runs, one earned, with two walks, four strikeouts and no home run. Those results support a competitive outing here, although five innings would still leave meaningful work for the relievers.

Chicago’s aggregate relief figures are a 3.95 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. They offer no obvious statistical separation from Miami’s available group. The Cubs therefore get a slight forecast edge from Boyd’s recent length, without assuming their bullpen will control the finish.

Key matchup factors

The central tradeoff is innings against run prevention. Boyd has recently supplied more outs per start; Phillips has the better season ERA and five-start ERA. Miami’s bullpen workload makes length relevant, but it does not prove fatigue or tell us which relievers will be ready.

SportsJaw members favor Chicago: CHC -200 leads the community moneyline picks at 100 percent, updated September 24 at 00:49 UTC. That percentage measures member selections, not Chicago’s win probability or confidence in this forecast. It supplies no separate verdict on either run line or the total. The two bullpen comparisons also cover different groups, Miami’s available relievers and Chicago’s aggregate relief staff, so their similar ERA figures deserve limited weight.

Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs spread prediction

Spread recommendation: Pass on Miami Marlins +1.5 (-140) and Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+120). The Cubs 4, Marlins 3 forecast falls inside Miami’s run line, but that single projected result is not a reliable estimate of how frequently the Marlins will cover.

Phillips’ recent run prevention makes Miami competitive, while his shorter outings introduce uncertainty later. Chicago’s longer-starting-pitcher scenario also falls short of a persuasive case for winning by multiple runs. The supplied moneylines are Miami +165 and Chicago -200; neither price turns a narrow score forecast into evidence of run-line value.

Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs total prediction

Total recommendation: Pass on Over 7.5 (-110) and Under 7.5 (-110). Recent starter performance gives the Under an argument, particularly Phillips’ 2.45 ERA over five starts. Yet his shorter workload means a substantial portion of the scoring outlook belongs to the bullpen.

Seven projected runs sit below the supplied total, but a half-run difference leaves little room for forecast error. There are no supported offensive splits or weather details here to strengthen either direction. At -110, the Under needs a clearer edge than recent pitching alone supplies. The Over remains a Pass as well.

Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs projected score

Game forecast: Cubs 4, Marlins 3. Chicago wins the pick on Boyd’s recent ability to provide more innings, with Miami’s bullpen workload adding weight to that distinction. The strongest counterargument is Phillips himself: his better season and recent ERA figures give the Marlins a plausible route to overturning the forecast.

Confidence is low because those advantages pull in opposite directions, and the evidence offers no clear offensive separator. The projected margin captures a competitive game, not a firm expectation of a one-run finish. Both supplied run lines are passes, and both directions at 7.5 are passes. The single official SportsJaw betting recommendation is Pass.

Projected score

MIA3

CHC4

ConfidenceSlight lean
Projected winner Chicago Cubs
Spread

Pass on Miami Marlins +1.5 (-140) and Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+120)

Total

Pass on Over 7.5 (-110) and Under 7.5 (-110)

SportsJaw pick

Pass

Sources

  • MLB.com / Chicago CubsCubs Probable Pitchers
  • CoversMarlins vs Cubs Game Overview, Stats, Injuries, Records - MLB Game on September 24, 2026
  • Miami Sports WireMiami Marlins Probable Pitchers: Today & This Week

SportsJaw Marlins vs Cubs game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Marlins vs Cubs matchups or learn how our predictions work.

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