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MLB MatchupsThu 10:10 PM ET
San Diego Padres logo
San Diego
Padres
N. Pivetta RHP
versus
Los Angeles Dodgers logo
Los Angeles
Dodgers
T. Glasnow RHP
MLB · SD at LA

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San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Predictions: Nick Pivetta vs Tyler Glasnow

Game time: September 24, 2026 at 10:10 PM ET

Venue: Dodger Stadium — Los Angeles, California

Article updated Sep 24, 2:40 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

The Los Angeles Dodgers will beat the San Diego Padres, Dodgers 4, Padres 3, with low confidence. Los Angeles’ 97-61 record supplies the strongest reason to favor the home team, while Nick Pivetta’s recent starts make San Diego a credible upset threat. Neither the supplied run-line prices nor the 7.5-run total offers a demonstrated betting edge. The official wager is Pass.

San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers prediction and best bet

Pick Los Angeles to win a close game, with its stronger season record carrying more weight than a supposed mismatch between the starters. Tyler Glasnow has a 3.46 ERA; Pivetta is slightly lower at 3.30. Glasnow’s larger strikeout total comes with more starts, so that comparison alone is no reason to declare him the superior pitcher for this matchup.

The best bet is Pass. Pivetta’s three dated September outings give San Diego a persuasive pitching counterargument, and a narrow Dodgers victory fits that balance. The forecast favors the home team without endorsing Los Angeles -1.5 (+125). San Diego’s +1.5 cushion deserves consideration, but its -150 price requires more conviction than this matchup supplies.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Game: MLB, September 24, 2026, at 7:10 p.m. PDT, 10:10 p.m. EDT.

Venue: UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles. This is the season-series finale and the Dodgers’ final regular-season home game.

Broadcast: SportsNet LA, Padres.TV Presented by UC San Diego Health and MLB Network; the latter has out-of-market coverage.

Records: Padres 88-70; Dodgers 97-61.

Probable starters: Right-handers Nick Pivetta for San Diego and Tyler Glasnow for Los Angeles.

SportsJaw odds: Moneyline: Padres +145, Dodgers -170. Run line: Padres +1.5 (-150), Dodgers -1.5 (+125). Total: Over 7.5 (-110), Under 7.5 (-110).

San Diego Padres outlook

San Diego’s strongest case begins with Pivetta’s run prevention. He enters 3-2 with a 3.30 ERA through seven starts and 30 innings. His season line includes 23 hits, 11 earned runs, seven walks, two home runs and 35 strikeouts. This is scheduled to be his eighth start in a season affected by injuries, making the size of that workload important when assessing his results.

The dated outings offer an encouraging picture. Against Miami on September 18, Pivetta allowed one earned run and four hits over five innings, with one walk and four strikeouts. At San Francisco on September 13, he surrendered two earned runs and five hits in four innings, striking out five without a walk. Against Washington on September 7, he threw five scoreless innings with two hits, no walks and two strikeouts.

Those performances make a close game plausible, but none lasted beyond five innings. Projecting another similar outing would leave a substantial share of the game to San Diego’s bullpen. His road ERA is 4.00 across just nine innings, too small a sample to outweigh the broader season line. The Padres’ pitching case is credible; it is not a guarantee of nine innings of containment.

Los Angeles Dodgers outlook

Los Angeles brings the stronger team record at 97-61, compared with San Diego’s 88-70. That nine-win advantage is the principal foundation for the Dodgers forecast. It reflects their season results without requiring an unsupported claim about which lineup is hotter or which bullpen is better entering Thursday.

Glasnow is listed at 5-1 with a 3.46 ERA and 87 strikeouts. The September 24 preview identifies this as his 13th start and notes that injuries have affected his season, too. His strikeout total is encouraging, but comparing it directly with Pivetta’s 35 ignores their different opportunities. Without an accompanying innings total, it should not become a claim that Glasnow has the better strikeout rate.

The pitching comparison therefore looks more competitive than the raw totals suggest. Pivetta owns the lower season ERA, while Glasnow gives the Dodgers a starter whose own run prevention supports a close-game forecast. Los Angeles gets the nod on the team-level record rather than a decisive individual pitching advantage.

The final regular-season home game supplies context, not an extra performance boost. Expecting a win is reasonable; expecting enough separation to cover a two-run margin asks considerably more of the Dodgers pick.

Key matchup factors

The central tension is Los Angeles’ stronger season record against Pivetta’s effective recent outings. Both probable starters are right-handed, but there is no verified offensive split here that warrants assigning either lineup a handedness advantage. The forecast turns primarily on team results and the documented pitching lines.

SportsJaw’s September 24 moneyline update at 00:30 UTC shows San Diego +145 leading community picks at 67%. Qualified handicapper picks also favor San Diego +145 at 67%. Those are separate measures of selection support, not a 67% chance of a Padres victory. They strengthen the counterargument to backing the favorite, while leaving the Dodgers as the narrow editorial pick.

San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers spread prediction

Pass on San Diego Padres +1.5 (-150) and Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+125). Dodgers 4, Padres 3 would cash the San Diego run line, but a single projected score is not a reliable measure of how often that cushion will hold.

Pivetta’s recent outings make the Padres side worth examining, while the -150 price raises the required conviction. The Dodgers’ stronger record supports picking them to win, yet offers no precise estimate of a multiple-run victory. Neither supplied run-line price earns a wager.

San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers total prediction

Pass on Over 7.5 (-110) and Under 7.5 (-110). The seven-run projection points toward the Under, with both starters carrying season earned-run averages below 3.50. That is a reasonable scoring expectation, but the projected finish sits only half a run below the total.

SportsJaw’s community total selections favor Over 7.5 (-110) at 100%. That percentage describes member picks, not the likelihood of eight runs. Pivetta’s recent four- and five-inning workloads also leave meaningful scoring exposure after his departure. Neither direction has enough demonstrated value for an official bet.

San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers projected score

Game forecast: Dodgers 4, Padres 3. Los Angeles’ stronger season record earns the deciding vote, and Glasnow’s season ERA fits a competitive pitching matchup. Confidence is low because the evidence offers a modest team-level advantage rather than a clear edge throughout the game.

The strongest counterargument is Pivetta: his lower season ERA and three effective dated starts give San Diego a credible route to winning outright. The Padres also lead both the community and qualified-handicapper moneyline selections. Keep the winner prediction separate from the betting decision. Both run-line sides and both total directions are passes at their supplied prices, and the single official SportsJaw wager is Pass.

Projected score

SD3

LA4

ConfidenceSlight lean
Projected winner Los Angeles Dodgers
Spread

Pass on San Diego Padres +1.5 (-150) and Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+125)

Total

Pass on Over 7.5 (-110) and Under 7.5 (-110)

SportsJaw pick

Pass

Sources

  • MLB.comBaseball Probable Pitchers
  • True Blue LADodgers on Deck: Thursday, September 24 vs. Padres
  • CoversNick Pivetta Projections, Player Props and Stats

SportsJaw Padres vs Dodgers game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Padres vs Dodgers matchups or learn how our predictions work.

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