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  1. Home
  2. MLB Picks
  3. Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees
Thu 7:05 PM ET
Tampa Bay Rays logo
Tampa Bay
Rays4
I. Seymour LHP
versus
New York Yankees logo
New York
Yankees6
C. Schlittler RHP
Final
Team123456789T
Tampa Bay Rays0020110004
New York Yankees00000132

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees prediction, odds and best bet for Sept. 24

Game time: September 24, 2026 at 7:05 PM ET

Venue: Yankee Stadium — Bronx, New York

Article updated Sep 24, 8:41 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

The New York Yankees are projected to beat the Tampa Bay Rays, Yankees 4, Rays 2, behind Cam Schlittler’s stronger season and recent pitching form. His matchup with a struggling Tampa Bay offense gives New York the edge, but Seymour’s home-run vulnerability complicates the total. Neither the supplied run-line prices nor the 6.5 total offers a compelling wager. The official recommendation is Pass.

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees prediction and best bet

New York is the pick because the starting-pitching advantage outweighs Tampa Bay’s better record. Schlittler brings a 1.94 season ERA and a 0.83 ERA over his last five starts into this matchup. Seymour has a 4.38 season ERA, with his recent home-run troubles giving the Yankees a potential scoring opening even with several hitters injured.

That supports a Yankees victory more convincingly than a specific wager. A projected Yankees 4, Rays 2 finish would cover New York -1.5 (+155) and land below 6.5, but both outcomes have narrow margins. The best-bet decision is Pass: the winner forecast is stronger than the case for paying either market’s price.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Game: Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees, 2026 MLB season.

Time: Thursday, September 24, 2026, at 7:05 p.m. EDT.

Venue: Yankee Stadium.

Broadcast: YES and Rays.TV, according to MLB.com.

Records: Tampa Bay Rays 86-52; New York Yankees 80-54.

Probable starters: Tampa Bay left-hander Ian Seymour and New York right-hander Cam Schlittler are listed by MLB.com and Covers.

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MLB · Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees

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Tampa Bay Rays outlook

Tampa Bay’s 96-62 record is a meaningful counterweight to the pitching mismatch. Seymour also has enough strikeout ability to challenge New York. He is 9-7 with 155 strikeouts in 127 1/3 innings, a 4.38 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. His 32 walks suggest free passes have been less troublesome than the 25 home runs he has allowed.

His last five starts have produced a 1-4 record and a 5.33 ERA, with averages of five innings and 1.8 home runs allowed. Against Boston on September 18, he surrendered four earned runs and two homers in five innings. Against Houston on September 12, he allowed two earned runs over six innings and struck out 10. That contrast captures the uncertainty around his assignment here.

Seymour struck out 12 Yankees without a walk on July 7, but still allowed three earned runs in 5 1/3 innings. Tampa Bay needs more run prevention than that performance delivered.

The offense has batted .226, slugged .358 and hit eight homers over its previous 10 games. Injuries further complicate the outlook: Tyler Wells, Garrett Cleavinger and Shane McClanahan are on the 15-day injured list with forearm injuries. Gavin Lux and Jacob Melton are on the 60-day list.

New York Yankees outlook

Schlittler is the main reason to favor New York despite its 91-67 record trailing Tampa Bay’s. His 14-6 record, 1.94 ERA and 234 strikeouts give the Yankees a strong starting point. Over his last five starts, he is 4-1 with a 0.83 ERA, averaging 8.2 strikeouts and allowing just 0.4 home runs per outing.

His September 19 start at Arizona offers a useful distinction between pitching performance and the scoreboard. He allowed three runs, only one earned, in six innings, with three hits, three walks and six strikeouts. On September 13 against the Mets, he threw six scoreless innings, allowed one hit and struck out eight. He also held Tampa Bay to one earned run over eight innings on July 6, with eight strikeouts and no walks.

New York’s offense has a less consistent profile. Its previous 10 games produced 19 home runs and a .414 slugging percentage, alongside a .222 batting average. The power gives the Yankees a route to punish Seymour without needing a succession of hits.

However, Aaron Judge and Trent Grisham are on the 10-day injured list with leg and hamstring injuries, respectively. Giancarlo Stanton is on the 60-day list with a calf injury. Those absences temper the offensive projection.

Key matchup factors

The decisive interaction is New York’s recent home-run production against Seymour’s vulnerability to the long ball. Schlittler gives the Yankees a better chance to keep the other side quiet, but Seymour’s strikeouts create a credible path for Tampa Bay to turn this into a close game.

SportsJaw opinion supplies a counterpoint. The September 24 moneyline update at 06:30 UTC shows Tampa Bay +126 leading member picks at 71%; the qualified-handicapper leader is also Tampa Bay +126 at 71%. Those are separate groups, not a Yankees win-probability estimate. The total community favors Over 6.5 (-115) at 100%. That sentiment differs from the projected six-run finish, reinforcing the distinction between the forecast and a wager.

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees spread prediction

SportsJaw run line: Rays +1.5 (-180), Yankees -1.5 (+155). Pass both sides. The projected two-run Yankees victory would cover -1.5, but that is exactly the required winning margin. One fewer New York run would turn the same winner pick into a losing run-line ticket.

Schlittler’s advantage makes New York the more appealing side analytically, while the Yankees’ missing hitters discourage confidence in separation. Tampa Bay +1.5 offers protection in a one-run loss, but -180 asks a substantial price for it. Neither side earns an official recommendation.

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees total prediction

SportsJaw total: Over 6.5 (-115), Under 6.5 (-105). Pass the total. Schlittler’s form and Tampa Bay’s recent offensive production point toward a restrained score, and the projection finishes below the line.

The Under nevertheless leaves little room for Seymour’s home-run problems. New York’s 19 homers in its previous 10 games make that risk concrete, even with its lineup absences. A seventh run would beat the Under, and the six-run forecast is too close to justify treating it as demonstrated value. The Over has a plausible path, but no convincing betting edge either.

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Projected Score & Betting Picks

Game forecast: Yankees 4, Rays 2. Confidence is medium. Schlittler’s season and recent starts give New York a supported, ordinary edge, while Seymour’s susceptibility to home runs offers a plausible route to the four-run projection.

The strongest counterargument is Seymour’s ability to miss bats, backed by his 12-strikeout outing against New York in July. Tampa Bay also owns the better record and leads both SportsJaw moneyline groups. Those factors keep this from becoming a high-confidence call. At Tampa Bay +126 and New York -148 on the supplied moneyline, the favorite designation fits the forecast, but the single official SportsJaw betting recommendation remains Pass.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

Rays2

Yankees4

Projected winner New York YankeesConfidencemedium
Pick on the Spread

Published pick: Pass Yankees -1.5 (+155) and Rays +1.5 (-180)

Pick on the Total

Published pick: Pass (article line changed)

Sources

  • MLB.comBaseball Probable Pitchers
  • CoversRays vs Yankees Game Overview, Stats, Injuries, Records - MLB Game on September 24, 2026
  • Bleacher Nation / Data SkriveYankees vs. Rays: Injury Report, Updates & Probable Starters – Sept. 24
#TampaBayRays#NewYorkYankees

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Written by

SportsJaw Editorial Team

SportsJaw's editorial organization researches matchup data, current odds, injuries and reporting, then validates each published preview against its listed sources and displayed markets.

About our editorial process

SportsJaw Rays vs Yankees game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Rays vs Yankees matchups or learn how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · Tampa Bay Rays+126 → +124Moved
  • Moneyline · New York Yankees-150 → -146Moved
  • Spread · Tampa Bay Rays+1.5 (-195) → +1.5 (-190)Moved
  • Spread · New York Yankees-1.5 (+165) → -1.5 (+165)Unchanged
  • Total · Over6.5 (-120) → 6 (-102)Moved
  • Total · Under6.5 (+100) → 6 (-118)Moved

ATS and O/U trends

Tampa Bay Rays
86-52 matchup record · 4-6-0 ATS · 4-6-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file
New York Yankees
80-54 matchup record · 5-5-0 ATS · 9-1-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2026-09-24T06:23:52.777Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

New York is the pick because the starting-pitching advantage outweighs Tampa Bay’s better record. Schlittler brings a 1.94 season ERA and a 0.83 ERA over his last five starts into this matchup. Seymour has a 4.38 season ERA, with his recent home-run troubles giving the Yankees a potential scoring opening even with several hitters injured.

The offense has batted .226, slugged .358 and hit eight homers over its previous 10 games. Injuries further complicate the outlook: Tyler Wells, Garrett Cleavinger and Shane McClanahan are on the 15-day injured list with forearm injuries. Gavin Lux and Jacob Melton are on the 60-day list.

However, Aaron Judge and Trent Grisham are on the 10-day injured list with leg and hamstring injuries, respectively. Giancarlo Stanton is on the 60-day list with a calf injury. Those absences temper the offensive projection.

Recent head-to-head

  • 2026-09-23Tampa Bay Rays 2 · New York Yankees 9
  • 2026-09-22Tampa Bay Rays 6 · New York Yankees 1
Final result

Matchup pick recap

New York Yankees defeated Tampa Bay Rays 6-4

New York Yankees defeated Tampa Bay Rays 6-4 on September 24, 2026, a 2-run decision in the series. New York Yankees' strongest period was the 7th inning, when it outscored its opponent 3-0. Against SportsJaw's recorded Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 (-190) spread, New York Yankees covered, while the 10 combined runs finished over the recorded total of 6.

SportsJaw editorial picks

  • Projected winnerNew York YankeesWin
  • SpreadPass Yankees -1.5 (+155) and Rays +1.5 (-180)Pass
  • TotalPass Over 6.5 (-115) and Under 6.5 (-105)Pass

Tipster picks

  • MikeVargasMoneyline · New York Yankees -150Win
  • MookiebetsTotal · Over 6.5 (-120)Win
  • Hustle$Moneyline · Tampa Bay Rays +126Loss
  • MauriceJonesMoneyline · New York Yankees -150Win
  • JaredkuntzMoneyline · Tampa Bay Rays +124Loss
  • Fisher49Moneyline · Tampa Bay Rays +124Loss
  • MickeytMoneyline · Tampa Bay Rays +124Loss
  • NutinbutlocksMoneyline · Tampa Bay Rays +124Loss