Nationals vs. Cardinals: Washington a slight moneyline lean
Washington's offensive production makes the underdog appealing, but McGreevy's latest start and the Nationals' road record temper confidence.
Matchup and pitching
The Washington Nationals visit the St. Louis Cardinals on September 19 in this 2026 MLB matchup, with Andrew Alvarez and Michael McGreevy listed as the probable starters. SportsJaw prices Washington at +110 and St. Louis at -130 on the moneyline.
Alvarez brings a 3.35 season ERA and 1.27 WHIP. His September 12 outing against the Angels was strong: seven innings, one hit, no runs and eight strikeouts. Four walks provide a caution, however. Another start with that many free passes could create scoring opportunities.
McGreevy has a higher season ERA at 3.83 but a slightly lower WHIP at 1.24. He allowed one earned run in six innings against the White Sox on September 13. His seven earned runs over five innings against Baltimore on August 26 show a less favorable outcome, but his latest performance is meaningful counterevidence to backing Washington.
Offense and price
Washington averages 5.11 runs per game against St. Louis' 4.51, and its .426 slugging percentage ranks second in the National League. Those numbers support taking the Nationals at an underdog price.
Recent and location-specific results make the advantage less decisive. Washington is 5-5 over its last 10 games, batting .229, and 35-41 on the road. St. Louis is 37-42 at home and has gone 3-7 over its last 10 while hitting .217. Washington's 9-1 series-opening win adds context, but one result carries limited predictive weight.
Final prediction
The selection is Washington Nationals moneyline (+110), with low confidence and a projected 5-4 Washington win. The offensive advantage and Alvarez's season ERA support a slight lean.