Nationals vs. Cardinals: Cavalli Supports a Slight Washington Lean
Washington has a starting-pitcher case at -105, but Leahy's effectiveness and uncertainty about the relief innings keep the edge small.
September 18 matchup
The Washington Nationals visit the St. Louis Cardinals on September 18 in the 2026 MLB season, with Cade Cavalli and Kyle Leahy listed as the starters. SportsJaw prices Washington at -105 on the moneyline and St. Louis at -115. The slight preference here is Washington, based on Cavalli's performance and the Cardinals' recent limits on Leahy's innings.
Cavalli enters with a 3.12 season ERA and 194 strikeouts. Covers reports a 2.05 ERA across 11 second-half starts. His September 11 outing against the Angels provides a concrete example: six innings, three hits, two runs, both earned, two walks and nine strikeouts.
His April 7 appearance against St. Louis offers a caution. Cavalli allowed two runs, one earned, over four and two-thirds innings, but walked four and struck out three. That performance does not establish that he will control this lineup.
Where the edge narrows
Leahy's 3.33 season ERA gives St. Louis a credible answer. He delivered three scoreless innings against the White Sox on September 12, allowing two hits with no walks and four strikeouts. Covers reports that the Cardinals have limited him to three innings or fewer in each of his past three starts to manage wear and tear. Another short outing would leave substantial work for the bullpen, although the available information does not establish a Washington advantage in those relief innings.
Washington averages 5.08 runs scored per game against St. Louis' 4.53, but also allows 5.07 compared with the Cardinals' 4.62. Those broad averages support Washington's offensive case while tempering confidence in its ability to protect a lead.