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21-7 record · 75.0% wins
Last 30 days · MLB
$500 pick on the moneyline
Washington’s scheduled starter brings strong recent numbers to this 2026 MLB matchup. St. Louis’ better season bullpen statistics complicate the betting case.
The Washington Nationals visit the St. Louis Cardinals on September 18, 2026, with Cade Cavalli and Kyle Leahy listed as the scheduled starters. Covers identifies the exact matchup and both pitchers.
Cavalli has recorded 194 strikeouts in 31 starts this season. Across his last three starts, he allowed seven hits, four earned runs and five walks in 16 innings while striking out 25. His September 11 outing against the Angels included six innings, two earned runs and nine strikeouts. Those results support a favorable assessment of his recent pitching, but do not establish Washington’s overall advantage.
Leahy’s last five starts carry a 3.06 ERA. His individually dated outings show different outcomes: he allowed five earned runs in 2 2/3 innings at Colorado on September 6, then delivered three scoreless innings against the White Sox on September 12. Those short appearances make the relief comparison relevant.
St. Louis has the lower season bullpen ERA and WHIP: 3.79 and 1.26, compared with Washington’s 4.17 and 1.34. Washington’s relievers also allowed seven runs, six earned, and seven walks over 9 1/3 innings across their last three games. That creates a meaningful reservation about backing the Nationals solely on Cavalli’s form.
SportsJaw lists Washington’s moneyline at -105 and St. Louis’ moneyline at -115. The available offensive and lineup information does not establish that either price offers value.
The total is 7.5, with over 7.5 (-115) and under 7.5 (-105). The pitching evidence points in competing directions, and the available information does not establish a sufficiently supported scoring expectation. Neither a total wager nor a precise projected score is justified.
Pass. Cavalli’s recent performance is encouraging, but the bullpen comparison and incomplete offensive picture leave the full-game outcome too uncertain for a recommendation.