Boston Red Sox vs
Tampa Bay RaysPredictions & Preview

Red Sox Favored to Win Series Opener Against Struggling Rays, Pitching Matchup in Boston's Favor

The Boston Red Sox, currently third in the AL East with a 75-75 record, will face off against the struggling Tampa Bay Rays, who are fourth in the division with a 73-77 record. Righty Nick Pivetta will be starting for the Red Sox, coming off a solid performance against the Orioles. Meanwhile, young right-hander Shane Baz will take the mound for the Rays after a recent no-decision against the Phillies. Pivetta has an ERA of 4.31, while Baz boasts a 3.28 ERA. The current betting line favors Boston, opening at -110 and currently sitting at Boston -127.

Betting Odds

• Moneyline: Red Sox -127 | Rays +115
• Spread: Red Sox -1.5 (+135) | Rays +1.5 (-154)
• Total: Over/Under 7.5 (-110)
• Based on the moneyline, the implied probability that Boston will win straight-up is 56%.

Boston vs Tampa Bay Stats

Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox have been performing well offensively, tied for fourth in the sport with a .751 team OPS and ranking eighth with 186 total home runs. Center fielder Jarren Duran has been a standout player with impressive stats. Pitcher Nick Pivetta has also been a strong contributor, excelling in various pitching metrics and utilizing a five-pitch arsenal effectively. Despite ranking 24th in power rankings, the team has a strong offense averaging 4.76 runs per game but is ranked lower in defense, allowing 4.73 runs per game. Overall, the Red Sox have a record of 75-73 this season.

Tampa Bay Rays Analysis

The Tampa Bay Rays have struggled at the plate this season, ranking 27th in baseball with a .672 team OPS and averaging 3.8 runs per game. Despite their offensive struggles, the team has been aggressive on the bases, ranking fourth in the sport with 172 steals. First baseman Yandy Diaz has been a bright spot, posting a .757 OPS with 14 home runs and 65 RBI. Pitcher Shane Baz has been struggling, ranking poorly in several key metrics according to Baseball Savant. His changeup has been his most effective pitch, with hitters batting .105 against it. Baz will be making his first start against the Boston Red Sox, making for an interesting matchup. The Rays currently have a power ranking of 19 and a record of 73-76. They have had success against the Red Sox in their last three matchups.

Pitching Matchup Favors Red Sox in Series Opener Against Rays

Both pitchers, Nick Pivetta and Shane Baz, have each made two starts in September. Pivetta boasts a 0-0 record with a 1.50 ERA and a .205 batting average against in 12.0 innings pitched. In contrast, Baz holds a 0-1 record with a 2.38 ERA and a 0.79 WHIP over 11.1 innings during this time period. Since the All-Star break, these teams have shown stark differences in offensive performance. The Red Sox rank fifth in the majors with a .761 team OPS and score an average of 4.87 runs per game, whereas the Rays rank 28th with a .654 team OPS and average only 3.59 runs per game. In summary, based on these statistics, it is recommended to place your bet on the Boston Red Sox to emerge victorious in the opening game of this series.

Sources: [ 1 ] [ 2 ] [ 3 ]