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MLB PicksWed 8:05 PM ET
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D. Smyly LHP
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Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Predictions June 28, 2023: A. Nola vs D. Smyly

Game time: June 28, 2023 at 8:05 PM ET

Venue: Wrigley Field — Chicago, Illinois

Article updated Jun 27, 6:45 PM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

The Philadelphia Phillies (40-37) and the Chicago Cubs (37-39) will meet at Wrigley Field on Wednesday for a much anticipated evening match. Last month in Philadelphia, the

Game outlook

The Philadelphia Phillies (40-37) and the Chicago Cubs (37-39) will meet at Wrigley Field on Wednesday for a much anticipated evening match. Last month in Philadelphia, the Phillies took two of three, so the Cubs will be determined to even up the score in Wrigleyville. Phillies' starting pitcher, Aaron Nola (ERA: 4.38), and Cubs' starting pitcher, Drew Smyly (ERA: 3.59), will take the mound at 8:05 p.m. EDT with the Phillies opening as the betting favorite at -122. Weather permitting, fans will be in attendance to watch the rivalry unfold and the current betting line is at Philadelphia -124.

Chicago Cubs Enjoy Recent Hot Streak Despite Pitching Struggles, Injuries

The Chicago Cubs have experienced an impressive run of success, winning 11 out of their last 14 games which has them sitting just three games behind the NL Central lead. Pitching has been instrumental to their success with Drew Smyly's number being an important one. In his last two home starts, he has surrendered five runs in each of them and also has had difficulty with his command in June. Despite that, his next start is a chance for him to recalibrate and redeem himself after he tossed 5 shutout innings last time out. The Cubs offense might not be 'red-hot' as it was earlier in the season, but they are still managing to put up 4.95 runs per game in June and draw plenty of walks, ranking third highest in the MLB. They have maintained a decent batting average and slugging percentage to bring in those runners. Both Nico Hoerner and Cody Bellinger are capable threats when it comes to stealing bases. Despite numerous injuries throughout the season, the Cubs have put up a respectable 11th in runs per game for the season.

MLB · Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago

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Phillies Fight Through Rhys Hoskins' Injury for Playoff Spot: #RingTheBell

The Philadelphia Phillies have had a roller coaster of a season. Starting off with a 15-5 run since June 3, they find themselves only a few games out of a playoff spot and have a power ranking of 3 to prove it. Pitching wise, there have been some standout performances from the Phillies, notably Aaron Nola’s game against the Cubs where, although his numbers across the board are lower than 2022, he held them to two runs over 7.0 innings. However, the bad news it is still an overall below average performance, with Nola allowing at least four runs in his past five road starts, leading to a 5.17 away ERA. The Phillies are ranked #18 in offense (scoring an average of 4.34 per game), #17 in defense (allowing an average of 4.57 points to be scored against them per game) with a record of 88-74. Rhys Hoskins' injury was a heavy setback for the team but the Phillies have managed to push through and stand their ground despite this, remaining 10th in batting average, 15th in OBP, and 12th in slugging percentage as they continue to carve out their way to a potential pennant. Strikeout rates may be 23rd in the league, but they are still managing to average just under five runs per game in June, which is a testament to the fighting spirit of Philadelphia. #RingTheBell as they strive for another season of success.

Chicago Cubs Shine on 11-3 Run: Offense, Pitching, and Defense All Stepping Up

The Chicago Cubs have been superbly executing lately, going on an 11-3 stretch and closing the gap on the NL Central lead to as close as 3.0 games. While the team relies heavily on their pitching--especially from Drew Smyly--their offense has also been making strides. Despite various injuries, Cubs currently have an MLB-ranking of 11th in runs per game and third-highest walk rate, with a tenth-best OBP. They are also 37-39 overall and enjoy the #9 ranking for defense and the #4 position in power-ranking. This month, the Cubs have been averaging 4.95 runs per game, the same as the Phillies, and are further characterized by their batting average and slugging percentage, that are deadly when combined with the bases stolen by Nico Hoerner and Cody Bellinger. Although they lost 1-2 over the last three matches against the Phillies, the Cubs are set to keep their impressive track record going in the remaining days of June.

Philadelphia vs Chicago Matchup Stats Curated Picks & Predictions

55% of SportsJaw predicts Chicago Cubs to win.

Based on the moneyline, the implied probability that Philadelphia will win straight-up is 55%.

Based on the current lines, Oddsmakers predict Philadelphia Phillies to win and the total score to be 8.5.

AI Scorecaster: Philadelphia 3 to Chicago 4

OddsShark has not made a prediction yet.

Written by SportsJaw Staff Categorized as MLB Predictions

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

Unavailable for this preview

Projected winnerUnavailableConfidencelow
Pick on the Spread

Published pick: Unavailable

Pick on the Total

Published pick: Unavailable

SportsJaw Phillies vs Chicago archived game preview contains historical odds and availability that may no longer be current. how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Crowd vs qualified handicappers

No qualifying consensus sample is available yet.

Qualified handicappers need at least 20 graded picks and a 52.5% win rate. A market needs at least three current qualified picks. Selection share is not a win probability.

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · Philadelphia Phillies-122 → -135Moved
  • Moneyline · Chicago+112 → +120Moved
  • Spread · Philadelphia Phillies-1.5 (+145) → -1.5 (+124)Moved
  • Spread · Chicago+1.5 (-170) → +1.5 (-145)Moved
  • Total · Over8.5 (-110) → 8.5 (-110)Unchanged
  • Total · Under8.5 (-110) → 8.5 (-110)Unchanged

ATS and O/U trends

Philadelphia Phillies
88-74 matchup record · 3-7-0 ATS · 1-8-1 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file
Chicago
ATS unavailable · O/U unavailable
Last 0 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2023-06-27T22:45:30.261Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

The Chicago Cubs have experienced an impressive run of success, winning 11 out of their last 14 games which has them sitting just three games behind the NL Central lead. Pitching has been instrumental to their success with Drew Smyly's number being an important one. In his last two home starts, he has surrendered five runs in each of them and also has had difficulty with his command in June. Despite that, his next start is a chance for him to recalibrate and redeem himself after he tossed 5 shutout innings last time out. The Cubs offense might not be 'red-hot' as it was earlier in the season, but they are still managing to put up 4.95 runs per game in June and draw plenty of walks, ranking third highest in the MLB. They have maintained a decent batting average and slugging percentage to bring in those runners. Both Nico Hoerner and Cody Bellinger are capable threats when it comes to stealing bases. Despite numerous injuries throughout the season, the Cubs have put up a respectable 11th in runs per game for the season.

The Philadelphia Phillies have had a roller coaster of a season. Starting off with a 15-5 run since June 3, they find themselves only a few games out of a playoff spot and have a power ranking of 3 to prove it. Pitching wise, there have been some standout performances from the Phillies, notably Aaron Nola’s game against the Cubs where, although his numbers across the board are lower than 2022, he held them to two runs over 7.0 innings. However, the bad news it is still an overall below average performance, with Nola allowing at least four runs in his past five road starts, leading to a 5.17 away ERA. The Phillies are ranked #18 in offense (scoring an average of 4.34 per game), #17 in defense (allowing an average of 4.57 points to be scored against them per game) with a record of 88-74. Rhys Hoskins' injury was a heavy setback for the team but the Phillies have managed to push through and stand their ground despite this, remaining 10th in batting average, 15th in OBP, and 12th in slugging percentage as they continue to carve out their way to a potential pennant. Strikeout rates may be 23rd in the league, but they are still managing to average just under five runs per game in June, which is a testament to the fighting spirit of Philadelphia. #RingTheBell as they strive for another season of success.

The Chicago Cubs have been superbly executing lately, going on an 11-3 stretch and closing the gap on the NL Central lead to as close as 3.0 games. While the team relies heavily on their pitching--especially from Drew Smyly--their offense has also been making strides. Despite various injuries, Cubs currently have an MLB-ranking of 11th in runs per game and third-highest walk rate, with a tenth-best OBP. They are also 37-39 overall and enjoy the #9 ranking for defense and the #4 position in power-ranking. This month, the Cubs have been averaging 4.95 runs per game, the same as the Phillies, and are further characterized by their batting average and slugging percentage, that are deadly when combined with the bases stolen by Nico Hoerner and Cody Bellinger. Although they lost 1-2 over the last three matches against the Phillies, the Cubs are set to keep their impressive track record going in the remaining days of June.

Recent head-to-head

  • 2023-06-27Philadelphia Phillies 5 · Chicago 1
  • 2023-05-21Chicago 1 · Philadelphia Phillies 2
  • 2023-05-20Chicago 3 · Philadelphia Phillies 12
  • 2023-05-19Chicago 10 · Philadelphia Phillies 1
Final result

Matchup pick recap

Philadelphia Phillies defeated Chicago 8-5

Philadelphia Phillies defeated Chicago 8-5 on June 28, 2023, a 3-run decision in the series. Philadelphia Phillies' strongest period was the 2nd inning, when it outscored its opponent 5-0. Against SportsJaw's recorded Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+124) spread, Philadelphia Phillies covered, while the 13 combined runs finished over the recorded total of 8.5.

SportsJaw editorial picks

  • Projected winnerNo published selectionUnavailable

Tipster picks

  • ThetotalerTotal · Under 8.5 (-110)Loss
  • BtRunline · Chicago +1.5 (-170)Loss
  • SfdanMoneyline · Philadelphia Phillies +113Win
  • JoeThomasMoneyline · Philadelphia Phillies +113Win
  • PurplebloodMoneyline · Philadelphia Phillies -124Win
  • PurplebloodTotal · Under 8.5 (-110)Loss
  • MtgoldsteinMoneyline · Chicago +113Loss
  • KryptonTotal · Over 8.5 (-110)Win
  • KryptonMoneyline · Philadelphia Phillies -131Win
  • MBT612426Moneyline · Chicago +118Loss
  • 1489684734Moneyline · Philadelphia Phillies -135Win
  • CoolioMoneyline · Chicago +121Loss
  • CoolioTotal · Over 8.5 (-110)Win
  • OddssharkMoneyline · Chicago +121Loss
  • OddssharkTotal · Over 8.5 (-110)Win
  • CoversMoneyline · Philadelphia Phillies -133Win