New York Mets vs
Houston AstrosPredictions & Preview

Astros take Game 1 lead in 2025 MLB season opener against Mets, favored in upcoming matchup

The 2025 MLB season kicks off with a matchup between the New York Mets and Houston Astros at Daikin Park in Houston, TX on March 29. The Astros currently lead the series 1-0 after taking the opener 3-1. In this preview, we analyze the upcoming game with Griffin Canning starting for the Mets and Spencer Arrighetti taking the mound for the Astros. Houston is favored to win at -120 with a total of 9.0 runs. Stay updated with our MLB picks for Saturday's games.

Betting Odds

• Moneyline: Mets +107 | Astros -119
• Spread: Mets -1.5 (+172) | Astros +1.5 (-208)
• Total: Over/Under 8.5 (-110)
• Based on the moneyline, the implied probability that Houston will win straight-up is 54%.

New York vs Houston Stats

New York Mets

The New York Mets started their 2025 campaign with a loss, mustering only six hits on Opening Day. Francisco Lindor went 0-for-4 but hit a sacrifice fly in the ninth inning to cut the deficit. Despite a strong relief effort from Huascar Brazoban and Danny Young, Clay Holmes struggled in his Mets debut, yielding three runs on five hits and four walks in 4.2 innings. Griffin Canning will make his debut in a Mets uniform on Saturday, after spending six years with the Los Angeles Angels. Canning has a 25-34 record with a 4.78 ERA in his career and is 0-3 with a 6.69 ERA in nine starts against the Astros. The Mets currently hold a power ranking of 9, with rankings in offense and defense, and are 0-1 this season.

Houston Astros Analysis

The Houston Astros secured a victory against the Mets on Opening Day with a strong performance from Framber Valdez, who threw seven scoreless innings. CF Jake Meyers contributed with two hits and an RBI, and Luisangel Acuna's error also played a role in the win. Bryan Abreu and Josh Hader also played key roles in the bullpen. Spencer Arrighetti is set to pitch the next game, with a promising record from his debut season. Houston Astros currently holds a power ranking of 10 and is ranked # for offense and defense. They are currently 1-0 overall. The New York Mets have a recent winning streak against the Astros, going 3-0 in their last three matchups.

Houston Astros Favored Against Griffin Canning, New York Mets Face Unknown Challenge

The Houston Astros are favored in this matchup against Griffin Canning due to their familiarity with his pitching style and their successful history facing him. Canning, who has spent his entire career in the AL West, has struggled against the Astros, with a 27-for-88 record that includes four doubles and six home runs. Yordan Alvarez, in particular, has had success against Canning, going 7-for-13 with two home runs. On the other hand, the New York Mets will be facing Spencer Arrighetti for the first time. Arrighetti, who performed well in the latter part of last season with a 1.95 ERA in August and a 3.92 ERA in September, may pose a challenge to the Mets. It should be noted that the Mets were more effective against left-handed pitchers in 2024, with a 116 OPS+ compared to a 103 OPS+ against righties.

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