Pittsburgh Pirates vs
Miami MarlinsPredictions & Preview

Pittsburgh Pirates Favored to Continue Dominance Over Miami Marlins in Third Game of Series

The Miami Marlins and Pittsburgh Pirates will face off in the third game of their four-game series, with each of the first two games being decided by a single run. Miami has struggled against Pittsburgh in recent matchups, losing nine of their last 10 games. The starting pitchers for this game will be Bailey Falter for the Pirates and Valente Bellozo for the Marlins, both with a 0 ERA. Pittsburgh is the betting favorite for this game, with the opening line at -125 and the current line at Pittsburgh -120. Stay tuned to see if Miami can turn their luck around in this matchup.

Betting Odds

• Moneyline: Pirates -120 | Marlins +107
• Spread: Pirates -1.5 (+140) | Marlins +1.5 (-160)
• Total: Over/Under 8.5 (-110)
• Based on the moneyline, the implied probability that Pittsburgh will win straight-up is 55%.

Pittsburgh vs Miami Stats

Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh finished last season with a record of 76-86, placing them last in the NL Central. Similar results are expected this season as their preseason over/under win total is set at 77.5. The Pirates will start Bailey Falter, a 27-year-old left-hander, on Saturday. Despite a challenging Spring Training, Falter has a strong track record against Miami, with a 3-0 record and a 4.30 ERA in eight appearances. In the first two games of the season, Oneil Cruz, Nick Gonzales, and Bryan Reynolds have been standout performers, each leading the team with two RBI. The Pirates are currently ranked 25th in power rankings, with their offense ranked 18th (averaging 4.00 runs per game) and defense ranked 19th (allowing an average of 5.00 runs against per game). They are currently 1-1 on the season.

Miami Marlins Analysis

Miami Marlins had a tough season last year finishing with a 62-100 record, placing last in the NL East and the third worst in the MLB. The team's over/under win total for this season was set at 63.5 on DraftKings. Valente Bellozo will start for the Marlins on Saturday, coming off a rookie season where he went 3-4 with a 3.67 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in 13 starts. In Spring Training, Bellozo struggled with a 9.45 ERA in five appearances. The Marlins offense will need to step up if Bellozo continues to struggle. Second baseman Otto Lopez leads the team with one home run and three RBI after the first two games. The Marlins have a power ranking of 17, ranked 10th in offense and 12th in defense, averaging 5.00 runs scored and 4.00 runs given up per game. Miami has a record of 1-1 so far, while Pittsburgh is 1-2 in their last three matchups against Miami.

Pirates Hold Clear Advantage Over Marlins in Statistical Analysis for Profitability

Based on statistical analysis, the Pirates would need to win at least 56% of the time in order to generate a profit, while the Marlins would need to win 48% of the time. Considering Miami's win rate of less than 39% in the previous season, it does not appear to be a favorable choice. Additionally, the Pirates have demonstrated significant dominance over the Marlins with a record of nine wins in their last 10 head-to-head games. Therefore, a logical decision would be to choose the Pirates as they have a higher probability of success in this matchup.

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