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  3. Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles
Sun 3:05 PM ET
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Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: Final Game of Regular Season Decides Postseason Contention

Game time: October 1, 2023 at 3:05 PM ET

Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards — Baltimore, Maryland

Article updated Oct 1, 10:14 AM EDT

Published by SportsJaw Editorial Team

On Sunday, the fifth-placed Boston Red Sox will visit the American League East Champion Baltimore Orioles for the conclusion of their respective regular seasons. Following

Game outlook

On Sunday, the fifth-placed Boston Red Sox will visit the American League East Champion Baltimore Orioles for the conclusion of their respective regular seasons. Following Boston's 3-0 win on Friday, they have been eliminated from postseason contention but have snapped a five-game losing streak, while Baltimore's loss on Friday snapped their five-game winning streak. There will be several key absences from both teams, with seven Red Sox pitchers, as well as position players Triston Casas, Jarren Duran, Adalberto Mondesi and Luis Urias unavailable, and three Baltimore pitchers as well as Terrin Vavra unavailable. There is a clear betting favorite with Orioles starting pitcher Kyle Bradish (ERA: 2.86) opening at -185 and the current line at -160.

Game Info

When: Sunday, 10/1/2023 @ 3:05pm EST

Where: Oriole Park at Camden Yards Stadium Red Sox vs Orioles Betting Odds Moneyline: Red Sox +143 | Orioles -160

Spread: Red Sox +1.5 (-147) | Orioles -1.5 (+125)

Total: Over/Under 8 (-110)

Based on the moneyline, the implied probability that Baltimore will win straight-up is 62%.

Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox have had a challenging season on the mound with a 26th rank in baseball for ERA (4.55). They are 25th in both batting average allowed (.257) and Quality Starts (45). Brayan Bello leads all Boston pitchers with 12 wins and Nick Pivetta is the strikeout leader with 183. Tanner Houck will pitch for Boston on Sunday- this season the right-hander has had 5 wins, 10 losses, an ERA of 5.31 and 93 strikeouts.

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At the plate, however, Boston has fared better- they hold a 6th rank in team batting average (.258) with a 8th rank in slugging percentage at .426 and 10th in runs scored with 764. Rafael Devers has hit a team-best 33 home runs and knocked in a team-high 99 runs, followed by Justin Turner with 23 home runs and 96 RBIs. Triston Casas has made 24 home runs this season but is out injured at the moment. The Red Sox have also hit 338 doubles, 18 triples, and 182 home runs during their 160 games.

Overall, Boston ranks 25th in power ranking and 10th in offense (scoring an average of 4.78 per game), 21st in defense (allowing an average of 4.81 points to be scored against them per game) and is 77-84 in total games.

ERA: 26th (4.55) Batting Average Allowed: 25th (.257) Quality Starts: 25th (45) Team Batting Average: 6th (.258) Slugging Percentage: 8th (.426) Runs Scored: 10th (764) Doubles Hit: 338 Triples Hit: 18 Home Runs Hit: 182 Power Ranking: 25th Offense Ranking: 10th (4.78 per game) Defense Ranking: 21st (4.81 points allowed per game)

Baltimore Orioles Analysis

The Baltimore Orioles ended the 2021 season as the top team in their division with a 99-60-1 record. This is a vast improvement from their 83-win season last year and their 52-win season in 2021. They have consistently put up impressive numbers at the plate, 7th in runs scored (801), 9th best batting average (.256), 10th best slugging percentage (.423) and 15th best on-base percentage (.322). Anthony Santander leads the team with 28 home runs and 93 RBI and Gunnar Henderson is second in home runs with 28 and 82 RBI. The Orioles have also performed well on the mound, with a top 10 ranking in ERA (7th - 3.92), Quality Starts (8th - 68) and WHIP (8th - 1.24). Kyle Gibson leads the Orioles with 15 victories, and Kyle Bradish leads the team in strikeouts with 163. Their overall power ranking is 6 and they have an impressive 2-1 record in their last three matchups against Boston. They await the release of their starting pitcher for the final game of the regular season.

> Orioles Dominate Red Sox, Aim to Finish Season Strong

Boston has been in a losing streak, going 5-1 in the last six overall and losing 8 out of 10 on the road. The Baltimore Orioles have had a more successful run, winning 5 in their last 6 overall, and 4 out of 6 when playing Boston. In the final game of the season, the Orioles may rest various players, yet they had previously dominated the Red Sox, with right handed starter, Tanner Rouck, giving up five runs on eight hits within 5 ⅓ innings. This season, Baltimore has outplayed Boston on their home turf, winning 48 of the 79 games played with a 3.92 ERA, while Boston holds a 38-41 record on the road with a 4.55 ERA.

Written by Gsimms Published on 10/01/2023 Category: MLB Picks

About the Author: I use a private handicapping system that I've created and adjusted over the last 20 years. My betting philosophy is discipline and bankroll management.

SportsJawGame Predictions
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Unavailable for this preview

Projected winnerUnavailableConfidencelow
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#BostonRedSox#BaltimoreOrioles

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Written by

SportsJaw Editorial Team

SportsJaw published this archived preview from its original game-day article. Its prediction and quoted lines are preserved as written.

About our editorial process

SportsJaw Red Sox vs Orioles archived game preview contains historical odds and availability that may no longer be current. View history of past Red Sox vs Orioles matchups or learn how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · Boston Red Sox+153 → +145Moved
  • Moneyline · Baltimore Orioles-185 → -163Moved
  • Spread · Boston Red Sox+1.5 (-130) → +1.5 (-140)Moved
  • Spread · Baltimore Orioles-1.5 (+110) → -1.5 (+120)Moved
  • Total · Over8 (-110) → 8.5 (-110)Moved
  • Total · Under8 (-110) → 8.5 (-110)Moved

ATS and O/U trends

Boston Red Sox
77-80 matchup record · 1-9-0 ATS · 3-7-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file
Baltimore Orioles
99-60-1 matchup record · 5-5-0 ATS · 1-9-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2023-10-01T14:14:44.097Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

At the plate, however, Boston has fared better- they hold a 6th rank in team batting average (.258) with a 8th rank in slugging percentage at .426 and 10th in runs scored with 764. Rafael Devers has hit a team-best 33 home runs and knocked in a team-high 99 runs, followed by Justin Turner with 23 home runs and 96 RBIs. Triston Casas has made 24 home runs this season but is out injured at the moment. The Red Sox have also hit 338 doubles, 18 triples, and 182 home runs during their 160 games.

Recent head-to-head

  • 2023-09-30Boston Red Sox 2 · Baltimore Orioles 5
  • 2023-09-29Boston Red Sox 3 · Baltimore Orioles 0
  • 2023-09-28Boston Red Sox 0 · Baltimore Orioles 2
  • 2023-09-10Baltimore Orioles 3 · Boston Red Sox 7
  • 2023-09-09Baltimore Orioles 13 · Boston Red Sox 12
Final result

Matchup pick recap

Boston Red Sox defeated Baltimore Orioles 6-1

Boston Red Sox defeated Baltimore Orioles 6-1 on October 1, 2023, a 5-run decision in the series. Boston Red Sox's strongest period was the 7th inning, when it outscored its opponent 4-0. Against SportsJaw's recorded Boston Red Sox +1.5 (-140) spread, Boston Red Sox covered, while the 7 combined runs finished under the recorded total of 8.5.

SportsJaw editorial picks

  • Projected winnerNo published selectionUnavailable

Tipster picks

  • JeffjacksonMoneyline · Boston Red Sox +150Win
  • 1707662905Moneyline · Baltimore Orioles -180Loss
  • CoolioMoneyline · Baltimore Orioles -160Loss
  • CoolioTotal · Over 8 (-110)Loss
  • OddssharkMoneyline · Baltimore Orioles -160Loss
  • OddssharkTotal · Over 8 (-110)Loss