Miami Marlins vs
Pittsburgh PiratesPredictions & Preview

Pittsburgh Pirates Find Hope in Rookie Sensation Paul Skenes as Miami Marlins Struggle at Bottom of NL East.

Despite a lackluster season for both teams, the Pittsburgh Pirates are still finding hope in rookie sensation Paul Skenes, while the Miami Marlins are struggling at the bottom of the NL East. The Pirates have gone 3-3 in their last six games, while the Marlins have split their recent series against Washington and Philadelphia. The starting pitchers for this game will be Adam Oller for Miami and Carmen Mlodzinski for Pittsburgh, with the Pirates favored to win based on current betting lines.

Betting Odds

• Moneyline: Marlins +134 | Pirates -149
• Spread: Marlins +1.5 (-158) | Pirates -1.5 (+138)
• Total: Over/Under 8.5 (-110)
• Based on the moneyline, the implied probability that Pittsburgh will win straight-up is 60%.

Miami vs Pittsburgh Stats

Miami Marlins

Valente Bellozo, the finesse-oriented starter for the Marlins, showed promise in his latest outing despite a costly fielding error leading to unearned runs. Manager Skip Schumaker praised Bellozo for his ability to escape jams, but the Pirates capitalized on defensive mistakes to secure a 3-2 win. Miami's offense struggled against Skenes but generated scoring opportunities, with Otto Lopez driving in their lone run. Bellozo exhibited growth as a pitcher, using a diverse five-pitch mix to keep the Pirates off-balance. Despite the loss, Schumaker commended Bellozo for consistently giving the team a chance to win. The Marlins, with a power ranking of 28, are ranked 29th in offense and defense, with a record of 54-90 this season.

Pittsburgh Pirates Analysis

Paul Skenes, a rookie pitcher for the Pittsburgh Pirates, set a new franchise record for most strikeouts by a rookie pitcher by fanning the second batter he faced. Skenes, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft, has recorded nine or more strikeouts six times this season and has a fastball that consistently hits triple digits. With 151 strikeouts on the season, he passed Cy Blanton's rookie record of 143 strikeouts from 1935. Skenes also lowered his ERA to 2.10 and tied for the team lead in quality starts. Despite his individual success, Skenes emphasized the importance of wins in baseball. The Pittsburgh Pirates currently have a power ranking of 27 and are #18 for offense, #21 for defense, and have a record of 68-76 overall. In their last three matchups, Miami went 3-0 against Pittsburgh.

Miami Marlins Offense Showing Improvement, Positively Impacting Betting Odds +125

The Miami Marlins have shown a recent uptick in offensive performance, particularly in their ability to mount late-game rallies, which positively impacts the value of the +125. They have demonstrated a knack for putting pressure on opposing defenses, as evidenced by their near comeback against Aroldis Chapman. Key contributors to this offensive success include Otto Lopez, who has been driving in runs with timely two-out hits, and Jake Burger, who has showcased his power with 25 home runs this season. With the Pittsburgh Pirates' bullpen struggling with an ERA over 4.20, the Marlins have a prime opportunity to capitalize on late-inning opportunities. Furthermore, Pittsburgh's recent success has been somewhat reliant on Marlins' defensive errors. By tightening up their defensive game, the Marlins can take advantage of any mistakes made by Pittsburgh, particularly given the Pirates' reliance on Skenes and their less consistent bullpen.

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