fisher49

The Buffalo Bills went 0-2 straight-up and ATS in two meetings with the Kansas City Chiefs last year, and the Chiefs rebounded from their rough start with a decisive victory over the Eagles last week.

The Bills' got throttled in Week at the hands of the Steelers but since then, Buffalo has dismantled its opposition while averaging 39.3 points per game. Playing the Chiefs is different than playing Miami, Washington and Houston. But the Bills getting points when the Chiefs have the league's second-worst defense feels like a slap into the face to the Bills.

Kansas City routinely gets pumped up by oddsmakers and the public. This line has bounced up to a field goal on several occasions this week, and ideally you can get Buffalo at +3. But Kansas City is just 3-12 against the spread in its last 15 games, and that defense appears more vulnerable than it was last year.

Josh Gordon or not, I don't trust this KC defense against this potent Bills offense. I'm fading the public and going with the Bills and taking the points.

A bet on San Francisco is also a bet that rookie quarterback Trey Lance can hold it down against a quality defensive front in his first career start, or that shaky veteran Jimmy Garoppolo can overcome a calf injury to not only start but excel against that D. Getting the red hot Arizona Cardinals under a TD here is the right side, so don't over think it.

Arkansas State is the better offensive team and even on the road, they can find success. Georgia Southern is averaging only 16.5 points per game (and just fired their head coach). I like Ark. St here at a near pick em' and also think this Total of 66 is way too high as neither offense has been lighting up the scoreboard.

Regardless of what happens here, three cheers to Louisiana-Monroe for already winning two games after an 0-10 2020 campaign in which nine of those losses were by a margin of at least 18 points. The Warhawks were arguably the worst team in the nation last year, but they come into this game fresh off an impressive win over Troy. I like Coast Carolina here but 35 points is just too damn many against this Louisiana-Monroe team playing respectable football.

Prediction: Coastal Carolina 49, Louisiana-Monroe 17

Regardless of what happens here, three cheers to Louisiana-Monroe for already winning two games after an 0-10 2020 campaign in which nine of those losses were by a margin of at least 18 points. The Warhawks were arguably the worst team in the nation last year, but they come into this game fresh off an impressive win over Troy.

But now they have to try to either contain or outscore a Coastal Carolina offense averaging 45.5 points and well over 500 total yards per game. Best of luck with that one.

Prediction: Coastal Carolina 49, Louisiana-Monroe 13

Houston Baptist transfer Bailey Zappe has been dynamite for Western Kentucky, completing at least 70 percent of his pass attempts and throwing for at least 365 yards and three touchdowns in each game this season. It wasn't quite enough for come-from-behind wins over Army or Indiana, but perhaps it will be against a Michigan State secondary that hasn't been anything special.

The problem for the Hilltoppers is that their run defense has been repeatedly gashed to the tune of 4.8 yards per carry. And that especially looks like a problem against the nation's leading rusher, Kenneth Walker III (138.5 yards per game; 7.3 yards per carry).

What's more dangerous, though? A quarterback averaging over 400 yards per game or a running back averaging roughly one-third of that? Even with the latter, Michigan State was unable to manage a single first down in the entire second half of its overtime victory over Nebraska.

I like this Bailey Zappe kid at QB for the Hilltoppers and I think they shock Michigan State this weekend.

Prediction: Western Kentucky 38, Michigan State 35

The Reds are right in the middle of the hunt for the second National League wild-card spot. After dropping 2 out of 3 games against St Louis over the weekend, Cincinnati really needs to take care of business against Pittsburgh in this series. The Reds are not in a position to be losing games to the last-place Pirates. They should feel good about their chances, as they are 9-1 against the Pirates so far this season. They have also won 17 of Wade Miley’s 26 starts. Miley has faced Pittsburgh twice this season and he has yet to allow a run.

Dillon Peters will take the mound for Pittsburgh. This will be the Indianapolis native’s 5th start at the big-league level this season; he delivered a pair of solid starts in mid-August but has allowed 9 hits and 5 earned runs in his last 2 starts (9.0 innings). The Reds have averaged 8.2 runs per game in their last 10 matchups against the Pirates and I expect more of the same against Peters today.

I'm looking forward to this game. Two Alabama QBs, Mac Jones and Tua Tagovailoa, but I've got Mac Jones out shining Tua in this game. I'm a believer in Mac Jones and anxious to see how the rookie performs on the big stage. This game is a bit of a crap shoot, but I'll lay the 3 points...the Mac Jones Era in New England begins with a win and Bill Belichick is once again called a genius.

Laying the points with the Bills. I think this Steelers team has been turning down for last 3-4 years and it's going to crescendo this year. I think a 6 win season is in store for the Steelers. Najee Harris will provide some spark but 1 player isn't saving this team. Plus Big Ben is used up. Buffalo gets right back to last season's winning ways.

Two cellar dwellers of the NFL battle it out, I predict rookie Trevor Lawrence falls flat and records one TD pass and two picks to help Houston's David Culley earn his first win as an NFL head coach. Neither team will be great this year and not the biggest fan of Tyrod Taylor but he's still got the edge on experience in this game.

Strahm struggled as a starter in 2019, and pitched exclusively out of the pen in 2020, where he totaled 20 2/3 IP across 19 appearances. His 2.61 ERA looks good on the surface, but it came with a weak 6.5 K/9. Marquez got rouged up in his last start against the Giants, but he has been excellent at Coors Field this season, recording a 3.05 ERA and allowing just 4 homers through 82 2/3 IP.

Pick: I like Colorado to get to Strahm early tonight and big edge for Padres bullpen, so going with Marquez over Strahm first 5 innings.

Rockets who are riding a five-game skid while the Trailblazers look to be peaking at just the right time as they’re getting healthy and starting to play some of their best basketball and have plenty to play for still. Portland going to run up the score in this game.

As this 237.5 total suggests, both teams who can really score and don’t play a whole lot of defense. Each of the last five games for the Wizards have had at least 149 points scored including one a few games ago that had the final score of 151-141. I'll follow the trends and back the overs to continue.

Got to play Philly here with their ace on the mound. Surprised this line is a virtual pick em' but I think Ynoa is getting a bit too much respect from the bookmakers, a big reason for Ynoa’s sub-3.00 ERA is his fortunate .225 BABIP and 87.5% left-on-base rates. Plus this Atlanta lineup won't be as strong if Ronald Acuna Jr. misses tonight’s game due to a finger injury (as projected).

Per RotoGrinders, "Winds blowing out to center at... 30mph? I think the NWS (and thus our automated forecast) might be overdoing it a hair since winds will be winding down this evening, but sustained winds of around 20mph and gusts over 30 look fairly likely. Big bump to bats."

Short track and 20 mph blowing out? Look for Yankees to get to Skubal and the wind is enough to touch the OVER 7.5 here.

It will be a pitchers’ duel between Bauer and Peralta. Bauer (3-0 2.53 ERA) and Peralta (2-0, 2.45 ERA). Neither team is hitting great lately, the Dodgers are averaging 3.7 runs per game over the last 7 days, and the Brewers are averaging 3.1. Runs will be a premium tonight.

I like LA but not at these odds, Under 7.5 runs is the value bet here.

The Bulldogs are not an elite team in defending near the rim and rarely play a team that can leverage that part of the game. Gonzaga can be had by a team that will effectively hit the offensive glass, get to the foul line and not get pushed into a shooting gallery performance with too many shots being launched from distance. I think USC can answer the bell down low and will be one of the toughest (most athletic and tallest) teams the Zags have played all season.

Montana State is coming off a very impressive upset over #1 seed Southern Utah, but don't look for lightning to strike twice. The Eagles are the top-scoring team in the conference averaging 82.9 PPG, and they have a handful of guys who can fill up the stat sheet with 5 different guys averaging over 10 PPG. Eastern Washington beat Montana State by an average of 16 points in their two meetings, and they man handle them again tonight.

East Carolina quietly ranks 71st in the country in defensive efficiency and the Bearcats have been struggling losing to Memphis and lowly Vandy in their last game.

Two evenly matched teams, I thought this line would be closer to a pick em'.

The Grizzlies are getting several key contributors back but the Pelicans have looked good of late and are top-10 in both opponent’s fast-break points and points in the paint per game, which are things the Grizzlies don't do well. Memphis is only 7-13 overall and 9-11 ATS in games with a rest advantage over its opponent since last season while New Orleans has the highest cover rate in games with no rest over that time span. To boot, Pelicans offense is trending up as they are fifth in both offensive rating and assist to turnover ratio over their last six games. Ball, Ingram and Zion Williamson are going to be too much tonight on their home court.

The regression of Milwaukee’s defense year over year is a real thing but I don’t think Indiana is built to take advantage of Milwaukee’s weakness. The Bucks have the third-worst 3-point defense this season but the Pacers aren't going to hurt you from behind the arc (ranked only a modest 15th in 3-point percentage on offense). Furthermore, Milwaukee acquired PG Jrue Holiday this offseason and Brogdon has been outplayed significantly in his three career games vs. Holiday. Don't get sucked in by the big number, I predict Milwaukee to put a hurtin on Pacers tonight.

I’m banking on a lot of things coming to pass for the Tigers by going with this score, namely that LSU will treat this one as its bowl game and will be eager to go out in a blaze of glory. If the Tigers can find something resembling their backs-to-the-wall togetherness they had at Florida, they will find a way to edge out the Rebels.

Vegas giving ISU no respect here. This will be an easy win for the Cyclones as long as they are able to target Oklahoma’s weak spots. Meaning, they will go after Spencer Rattler and they will go hard. After that, they shut down Rhamondre Stevenson and the rest is history, it’s the same team that travelled to Ames in October. The biggest difference with be the presence of Ronnie Perkins but all Iowa State has to do is strengthen the passing game which they’ve had two weeks to game plan. Getting points here with the better team.

FINAL: Iowa State 38, Oklahoma 28

I just can't even consider betting on Jaylon Hurts and this stumbling Eagles team.

USC has had a chance to knock the rust off and no clear picture of what to expect from Arizona and the Wildcats did lose seven straight to end the year, but Arizona has a lot of playmakers and Paul Rhoads at defensive coordinator should do wonders for their defense this season. This line opened at USC -12 and has moved to -15 at most books because all of the talking TV heads like USC. But I'll take Arizona and the points at home in a game they could surprise.

This isn't exactly the type of game that is going to boost NFL Network's subscriptions, but I guess betting it will make it worth watching. Jacksonville’s roster is basically made up for 2nd string players, and outcasts and doesn't have any real star power. But as bad as Jacksonville is the Dolphins an Jets are the worst teams. I think Minshew will have another great day and best Fitzpatrick. Score Prediction: Jaguars 30-Dolphins 20.

With Adoree Jackson out at cornerback, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Gardner Minshew II continue his success in the quick passing game. Afterward, I could see him making a few clutch deep passes and putting the Jags in position to win off a Josh Lambo field goal.

McKay was recalled from Triple-A Durham on Wednesday and will make his first big league start since allowing five earned runs in 3 1/3 innings in a loss against the White Sox on July 19. Cashner is going for Boston tonight and in his last start he held the Yankees to three runs over 6 2/3 innings, but prior to that start he has looked average at best and has a 4.0 ERA last 3 games. It's hard to know what to expect out of McKay in this spot but Boston can get 5-6 quality innings out of Cashner then I predict the Red Sox hot bats will do the rest. I'll lay the juice here with Boston and touch the OVER 10.5.

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