thetotaler

This line feels a bit inflated, maybe an over reaction to Baylor blasting an average WVU last weekend. Baylor scores off of explosive plays, big chunks, but BYU stingy D should be able to slow this Bears O down. Power rankings have Baylor as -1 fav here and 6 just feels like too many in a game BYU can win out right.

Let down spot here possibly with Iowa beating PSU last weekend. I like the OVER 43 here as Iowa lost one of their top cornerbacks last week. Purdue can throw the ball and also has had extra time to prepare for this game. Give me Purdue and the 11.5 points (slight lean) and heavy on the OVER 43.

Big dose of reality after a great start for Kentucky this season. Low total here with a big spread, so normally would like the underdog in this spot but I just can't bet against Georgia's defense. Kentucky also has a defense and hasn't allowed a team to rush for over 175 yards this season yet. This feels like a 24-7 type game to me. Slight lean on Kentucky and the points but best bet is on the Under 44.5.

Gray is still looking for his first win of the season but he is actually the better pitcher in this game. Lay the -140 and Over 8.5 runs.

The Over is 1-7 in the last 8 Rays games when their opponent's road win percentage when starting a right handed pitcher is more than 75% on the season
The Over is 1-7 in the last 8 Rays games when their opponent's road win percentage is more than 62% on the season
The Over is 1-7 in the last 8 Rays games when their opponent's win percentage when starting a left handed pitcher is more than 35% on the season
The Over is 1-7 in the last 8 Rays games when their opponent's home win percentage when starting a left handed pitcher is more than 55% on the season
The Over is 0-5 in the last 5 Rays games against the Athletics when the Athletics have a home winning streak of 2 or more
The Over is 0-5 in the last 5 Rays games against the Athletics when they are not playing on Saturday
The Over is 1-15-1 in the last 17 Athletics games against the AL East when their opponent averages 4.5 or more runs per game on the road

The Bulls aren't playing good basketball right now to say the least with five straight losses and being on the end of a back to back doesn't help. But the Cavs still have the worst offense in the NBA and have lost by and average of 9.5 points on the road this season. If there is ever a good spot for the Bulls to stop the bleeding it's against the anemic Cavs.

Both teams on the end of a back to back, but it's the Washington Wizards that are playing head and shoulders the better basketball.

Mac McClung has come on for Tech averaging almost 20 per game, and is fun to watch. I just think Texas is going to win the rebounding battle tonight and the overall better team. Should be a heavy weight fight but I think Texas has the better (and deeper) team this year. #HookEm

Even with Indy's defense, I do think we see some points.

Maybe a bit of freezing rain to start the game so expect passing and kicking to be affected. Cowboys defense healthy and playing well of late. Cowboys 31-17

The difference in this game is the offensive line, VT has one and Wake doesn't . Wake Forest QB Sam Hartman has been sacked 14 times. Virginia Tech quarterback Hendon Hooker has only been sacked twice.

This line has moved from -6.5 to -10 at some books. Money coming in on VT, I like them here at -9.5.

In LA everyone is out buying their Dodger WS hats, what a bunch of clowns. Betting on Tampa every game, let's go.

The Los Angeles Rams are seeking another 2-0 start to the season after eking out a win against Dallas last week and they face the Philadelphia Eagles here today, who blew a 17-point lead in a 27-17 loss to Washington last week.

This game is essentially a toss-up, and the Rams will be facing a vastly different Eagles team than last week with OT Lane Johnson, RB Miles Sanders and DT Javon Hargrave all healthy for this one, but still the Rams have had the Eagles number in recent years and this is another game I think they should be able win. I like LA Rams and the free 1.5 points here.

The Giants had a hard time keeping up with Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller last year and with a piece milled secondary that is still learning to play together they’re likely to have an hard time again. On offense, if the line can’t keep Daniel Jones clean and open up lanes for Saquon Barkley they won’t win many games this year. Chicago looks to be an average team at best this season but the Giants are still below average in my opinion so there’s no way I can pick the Giants here.

Betting these opening day games can be like a box of chocolates, but Army is a consistent product and reportedly going to be even better on defense this year. But Middle Tenn St. has more big play makers and more speed so should be able to score on chunk plays as we saw last year...but like last year MTSU's defense is leaky as a sieve. I'll put something small on Army here just for the hell of it and look for live bet based on what we see in the first few series.

The best part about Marshall’s defense is its tremendous secondary, and that’s bad news for an FCS team which figures to be in a hole early and in need of passing to get back into the game. Look for the Herd to build a giant early lead and hang on for the cover. Marshall should cover this number at home, although it might get a bit hairy as some of the reserves get looks in the second half. So playing Marshall -13.5 for the first half might be the safer bet.

Highly ranked Pac-12 teams going on the road and losing seems to be apropos this year. Given USC's home-field record this season, Saturday looks like the quintessential such contest. The bevy of injuries on both sides of the ball for USC, however, is a concern for USC bettors. How will a defense that's been so up-and-down handle the Oregon offensive line? Can they get to Herbert at all? Oregon's ability to stop the talented USC wide receivers is the biggest question mark for the Ducks. Expect a nail-biter that feels every bit like the Pac-12 Championship-implicated contest it is. Oregon has thrived in such situations against good opponents since dropping the season opener and with the injuries to USC I give the Ducks the nod in this one.

This game is tricky to predict. I went back and forth several times and think rationally that Colorado should win. That's what the head says. The heart says that Chip Kelly is finally getting through to his team and is looking to put together a strong finish to possibly get into a bowl game, but also build off of heading into the offseason and for recruiting. The Bruins did just beat an Arizona State team that was 5-1 and ranked 17th in the polls before suffering back-to-back losses (other coming against Utah). UCLA appears to have all of the momentum entering this game with the Buffaloes in the midst of a four-game losing skid.

This should be a back-and-forth affair with plenty of scoring considering both defenses are ranked at the bottom in the FBS when it comes to stopping the pass. Laviska Shenault Jr. should have a big game for Colorado, likewise Joshua Kelley for UCLA. But the key is going to be quarterback play and I give Dorian Thompson-Robinson the edge here over Steven Montez. I predict that the Bruins' talent on offense will be able to exploit the banged up CU secondary and set them up for the run.

Too many injuries and inexperience with Arizona. Niners will run wild

Betting the Over requires betting against Rinne which wouldn't be smart right now. Rittich has been no slouch, either, as he holds off backup Cam Talbot for the lion’s share of the starts in the Calgary crease. Let's get on this UNDER 6 (-105).

Take the UNDER (39.5, -115) here as both teams are unlikely to score in what will likely be a mistake-prone game with numerous turnovers. Forty may seem like a low number, but the Titans are averaging just 19.6 points per game, while the Broncos average just 18 PPG

College Early Worms: Scanning the opening lines here are the ones that jumped off the page.

COLORADO +22 ($100)
NAVY +2 ($250)
OKLAHOMA -10 ($100)
NEBRASKA +6.5 ($100)
***HAWAII +12 ($500)***
***CINCINNATI -5 ($500)***
FSU +26 ($100)

LOVE HAWAII +12 and CINCINNATI -5 this week. Lock em' Up!

UNLV got trounced by a below average Wyoming team last weekend 17-53 and I predict a similar type score here. UNLV has problems on offense with quarterback Armani Rogers falling out of favor with his coaches. I'll follow the sharp money here and play Boise.

Duke's offense should be able to outlast Pitt in this game. Pittsburgh surprised against UCF but they have the 116th ranked offense in the country and don't see them moving the ball effectively against Duke's 42nd ranked defense. I like Duke here in a lower scoring game, Duke wins a 27-17 type of game.

Liberty has the edge on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball in this one. They have won their last three games in a row and have allowed just 22.6 ppg, while the Aggies are 0-5 on the year and have allowed 47.2 ppg. Stephen Calvert will have a field day against the 113th ranked pass defense of the Aggies, while Josh Adkins will have a tough time against the 33rd ranked pass defense of the Flames. The Aggies do not have enough offense or defense to win this game. Further, both teams have played New Mexico and Liberty stifled the Lobos defensively and I predict the same thing happens against a weak New Mexico St. team. Liberty wins by double digits, lay the 4.5 points.

***OK STATE -10 (MAX BET)*** Oklahoma State entered the top 25 after beating a ranked Kansas St. team 26-13 in their last game and they went down to the wire with Texas in Austin losing 30-36. Texas Tech is NOT GOOD AT ALL this year and to compound problems they lost their QB Bowman for this game who is out with a shoulder injury. Jett Duffey will get the start and made his first one of the season in the bad loss to Oklahoma where he passed for 124 yards with no TD and no INT only averaging 5.9 yards per completion. Jett Duffey is a dual threat but he's more of a runner than a passer and is prone to turning the ball over. Bottom line is OK STATE is the much better team and Tech's offense isn't the same without Bowman at the helm. I think this game could get ugly and the Cowboys will have this 10 point spread covered in the 1st quarter. BRING THE LUMBER - OK STATE is Free money Saturday. Lock it up!!

I will take the Green Wave and the points for this contest as I see their offense grinding down a porous defense - FIU cannot stop the run, which ensures that Tulane will utilize their two-headed monster at running back while allowing their success to open up the passing attack. And while the Panthers will certainly come to play early on, the night will belong to the Green Wave’s tough defense will grind them down. The Vegas money is coming in on Tulane and I'll follow...Tulane -3.

Brooks will come in with some confidence after picking up a much-needed victory in his last start but I expect the Nats to get to him tonight. Look for the red-hot Washington lineup to get some hits off the right-hander as they have much more to play for than the Orioles. Nats win their 6th straight in a 8-4 type of game.

One of the benefits of Wednesday's doubleheader may be pushing Clevinger's start back a day, allowing him to face the first-place Twins. Over his last six starts, Clevinger has a 1.69 ERA with 49 strikeouts in 37 1/3 innings. Gibson once again punctuated long stretches of dominance with bouts of inconsistency in his last start, when he allowed three runs -- two earned -- in 6 2/3 innings but was perfect in five of those frames. He has a 3.57 ERA since the start of July. Head to head I just trust Clevinger more than Gibson in this spot and the Indians offense has been red hot. Give me Cleveland -110 here.

These are two pretty good pitchers throwing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and I don’t see 9 runs being scored here tonight. Atlanta wins 5-3 type of game.