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🏈***NCAAF EARLY WORMS 10/18*** 🐛

Scanning the opening lines vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/ and these games caught my attention. 🔒

🏈WAKE -3.5 - Army tough team but Wake more tested + better offense

🏈SYRACUSE +3 - Orange over VT - The Cuse' 9 points away from being 4-1 this year and have played a tougher schedule.

🏈PITTSBURGH -2 - Clemson is legitimately not good.

🏈Oklahoma -38 - KU has thrown in the towel. Sooners will score 60+

🏈OK STATE +7 - This line should be ISU -3 IMO

🏈UTSA -6.5 - I'm sold on this UTSA offense, plus La Tech has been bad last 2 weeks (coming off loss to UTEP).

You see anything that jumps off the page at you this week?

DROP YOUR CFB PICKS ⬇️

BETTING the INDIANS (+100) FIRST 5 INNINGS because Fleming has been rocked in his last 3 games.

I'll be the sucker here and take the 15.5 points. Best bet is probably on the UNDER 47.5 as Jets will struggle to score and Seattle has had a little bit of a power outage offensively in the past month.

Astros. WOW.

There is regression coming for Fried due to the fact he hasn’t allowed a home run yet this season but it won’t come Saturday, especially with the Nationals likely to be without Soto and Eaton. ATL -1.5 (-121) is the only viable bet with Fried starting against the swingman Fedde.

The Under is 10-2 in MSU’s last 12 road games against teams with a home winning percentage greater than .600, 6-2 over the Spartans’ last eight road games and 6-0 in Indiana’s last six games against teams winning at a .600-clip or better. Head coach Tom Izzo‘s Spartans have been playing low-tempo games of late, and MSU can take away a couple key Hoosier edges on offense. Rolling the dice with the UNDER 142.5 tonight and slight lean on MSU.

Cowboys' Dak Prescott to be limited in practice after injuring shoulderCowboys coach Jason Garrett said QB Dak Prescott had an MRI on his right shoulder after Sunday's game against the Rams. "He just banged it up," Garrett said. "... He'll be ready to go [vs. the Eagles]." https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28326398/cowboys-dak-prescott-limited-practice-injuring-shoulder

If these teams' respective rushing totals hold true tonight then the Buckeyes will roll and win by 20+ points. The Badgers will add a few wrinkles that might keep it close early, but Fields and Dobbins have been unstoppable all season and I don't see that changing tonight. Ohio State pours it on in the second half. I like Ohio State 40, Wisconsin 21.

VT 5-0 in their last 5 games and they also beat Georgia Tech 45-0 while Virginia barely beat GT 33-28. Virginia Tech is playing better ball right now and their defense has shut out their previous two opponents.

Going with Marshall here as I don't think La Tech can overcome the suspensions, especially on the road. Line should be higher imo.

The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs are HOT and they're going to stay hot. On the offensive side of the ball they're well balanced with solid rushing and passing attacks averaging just over 38 ppg. They're only conceding about 23 ppg. Marshall laid an egg against Rice but they've had a bye week to work on what went wrong. I see the Thundering Herd making this a good game but with the power of the LT offense being so great I think the Bulldogs will outlast and outscore Marshall to get the cover and the W.

This line opened at Liberty -20 and has moved to Liberty -23.5...and rightfully so. Liberty simply has too much offensive firepower for UMASS to keep up here and this one could get ugly early...I liked Liberty at -20 here but this line has swelled and look a bit juicy. Maybe something small on Liberty if you are late to the party.

NC State, like Wake Forest, is coming off a bye week and I typically like playing the OVER's with two teams coming off of byes as this usually means solid offensive plans and 1-2 trick plays, but I like the UNDER 60.5 in this matchup. With both teams in iffy situations regarding their quarterbacks, it's hard to see this one being too high scoring. Wake Forest and NC State's defenses combine to allow 49.4 points, but even coming off of a by. UNDER 60.5

Statistically NC State should be 10 point favorites. NC has a top 40 offense and top 50 defense and Syracuse ranked 95 and 105 respectively. IF NC State plays up to their potential and they limit their turnovers, I like the Wolfpack at home here laying only 4.5

Two fickle teams here but Miami is better than their record IMO. The Canes' lost played both UNC and Florida tough games and have the better talent on both sides of the ball. The edge in this matchup for me is the Cane's defense which is holding opponents to under 16 PPG. I think Miami does just enough here and win a 27-17 type of game.

A key matchup will be New Mexico and its desire to run the ball. The Rams struggled to stop the run games of San Diego State and Toledo so how much of this is a weakness against the Lobos? Strength of schedule certainly favors the Rams - Colorado St. has certainly played the tougher schedule other than New Mexico playing and getting throttled 14-66 by Notre Dame. New Mexico loves to run with Ahmari Davis and they should find success in the trenches (and the air) against a CSU defense that ranks 123rd in the country. Coin toss game, give me the 3.5 points with Lobos at home.

The plus money is tempting here but Bumgarner got touched up against Arizona in his last start and Oakland has been on a tear the last few weeks and have won nine of their last 10 games at home. The A's should be able to win this game and I'll follow the trends with Bassitt who has won 3 of his last 4 starts against stiffer competition.

The big plus money with Texas is tempting considering that Leclerc has started as an opener, BUT that was back in May and he still has a bad bullpen behind him. Kyle Gibson has struggled of late, but the Twins are the far better team in this one and the Rangers have been trending in the wrong direction. Give me Minny on the RL -1.5 (-110).

Warriors' desperation will trump Toronto's hunger. Warriors +115 ML

Shaun Anderson has actually been better (or just as good) as Wheeler over the past month. Giants offense has been slumping all season and Mets should be a slight favorite here but -170 just seems ridiculous in this spot. I'll put something small on the Giants +160 even if it is more of a value bet today.

San Diego has filled its roster with a bunch of young and newly-acquired talent while the Blue Jays still look like one of the most underwhelming home teams in baseball. IMO San Diego is the better of these two teams and it is not even close.

honestly the warriors were good before Kevin Durant and they will be good after him as long as they keep their core players together. I actually think they played better without Kevin Durant, because curry takes a backseat when he's on the floor. We will see if Portland bows up here today, but I think they are mentally defeated after dropping 2 games with no KD on the floor.

Bucks have been smashing everyone all season and playoffs. Now that Brogdon is back at 100%, I don’t see Toronto being able to hang with Milwaukee and the Bucks should be able to slow Leonard. I've got Bucks in 5.

In 88 minutes w/o Durant, Golden State is -15 vs Portland over the past two years. Here's the stat that intrigues me... in the 81 minutes without Nurkic on the floor this season vs. Golden State, Portland was +47.