1234 T ODDS
BUF 3770 17 39
NE 73311 24 -6.5
Staff Prediction

Bills vs Patriots
Prediction Odds and Preview

By Staff Writer, rc

Buffalo Bills 10-4 (9-4-1 ATS) are playing New England Patriots 11-3 (8-6 ATS) on Dec 21, 2019, 4:30pm ET at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots opened at -6.5 in Vegas and the current line is NE -6.5.

In what has been nothing short of an interesting year in Foxborough, has still produced another 10 win year and another clinched trip to the playoffs. A win in this one and it would give the Patriots their 11th division title in a row. Nothing short of dominate. But the Bills are right on their heels and can tie them atop the division if they lose this game. But we see that the Pats are coming into this game off a 34-13 win over the Bengals, but it was not pretty or as dominate as the score might seem. They needed a big 2nd half to put the game away as it was only 13-10 at the half. It was concerning considering how bad the Bengals have been this year. But like the Bills, the Pats have been led by their defense this year which has been the best in the league allowing just 268.4 ypg and 12.9 ppg so far. They cause turnovers in bunches and have scored more points then some offensive units this year which is insane. Gilmore continues to show how dominate he is on the outside and takes away your best WR. It will be interesting to see how he is used in this one.

The Bills have had this game circled on their calendars for a while now as they knew this would be a pivotal game for playoff seeding and deciding the division. The Bills will need some help if they want to win the AFC East for the first time first since 1995 but it starts with winning this game first. The recipe for success for this team has been their stellar defense. This unit has lead them all year and that was the case against the Steelers on Sunday night as they held them to just 10 points on 229 yards of total offense. The Bills are now 3rd in the league in total yards allowed at 291.9 ypg and 2nd in points allowed at 15.9 ppg. They have not been a good offensive team, but with their idenity established as a physical defensive team that relies on not turning the ball over, they don't need to be. They come in ranked 23rd in total offense at 336.1 ypg and 22nd in scoring at 20.8 ppg. This team wants to establish the line of scrimmage and win the battle in the trenches on both sides of the ball and have done a good job of doing that all year. I also dont think they will have an issue getting to Tom Brady as the Patriots O-line has been atrocious lately. I do think something to watch will be the Patriots D-Line against the Bills front. This Patriots Defense causes a lot of turnovers and that is something that killed the bills in the first meeting with these teams. Josh Allen has a problem holding onto the ball too long and losing fumbles when he gets hit.

Betting Trends:
Bills are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 road games
Buffalo is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall
Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 versus the AFC East
Under is 4-0 in Bills last 4 games following an ATS win
Patriots are 42-19-2 ATS in their last 63 home games
New England is 48-23 ATS in their last 71 games overall
Patriots are 1-5 ATS versus a team with a winning record
Under is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 games versus the AFC East

Love the Bills in this tough spot. I believe that the Patriots will struggle to score points as this Bills defense is the complete opposite of what they saw last week in the Bengals. The Bills front 7 should get after Brady and put him in a position to beat them throwing the ball, which has been a struggle for this team all year. If the Patriots do win I think it will be a close game and no where near a 7 point win. Gimme the Bills to cover the +6.5 and will sprinkle the Moneyline as well as the Bills are the better more complete team at the moment.

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