BETTING PREVIEW & PICKS:
Kansas City Chiefs 8-4 (7-5 ATS) are playing New England Patriots 10-2 (7-5 ATS) on Dec 8, 2019, 4:25pm ET at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots opened at -4 in Vegas and the current line is NE -3.
It’s a big time battle of AFC division leaders and a rematch of last season’s AFC Championship Game up in New England. The Kansas City Chiefs 8-4 (7-5 ATS) are on the road as they travel to face the New England Patriots 10-2 (7-5 ATS) Sunday afternoon. Kansas City comes in off a 40-9 demolition of Oakland on the road last Sunday in their previous game. While New England was dropped 28-22 on the road by Houston on Sunday Night Football last week. The Chiefs own an 18-14-3 edge in the all-time regular season series. New England won the AFC Championship Game 37-31 in overtime on the road on January 20, 2019 the last time these two teams played.
The Chiefs started the season where they left off last year but hit somewhat of a speed bump as of late. The Chiefs opened the season with four straight victories, but a number of key injuries to some of their stars set them back. But still the Chiefs continue to be an offensive juggernaut this season as they are third in the league with 29 points per contest. Kansas City ranks 4th in the league in total offense as they average 384.7 yards per contest while ranking second in yards per play as they pick up 6.3 yards per snap. The Chiefs are currently 16th in the league in scoring defense by allowing 22.1 points per contest. Kansas City is 25th in the league in total defense by allowing 372.1 yards per game and 21st in yards per play by allowing 5.6 yards per snap. In giveaway/takeaway, the Chiefs are tied for 6th with a +8 ratio this season. But we do see that the Chiefs have struggled punching the ball into the end zone once they drive into down there they are ranked 19th in the league by converting only 53.85 percent of their chances. Defensively, Kansas City has been decent so far this season, ranking 12th in red zone defense by allowing 53.19 percent of drives to reach the red zone to end in touchdowns. The Chiefs are near the top of the pack in third-down conversions, ranking 3rd by converting 46.76 percent of their third-down situations so far this season. Kansas City’s defense is 14th in those situations as they hold the opposition to 36.91 percent success on their third downs. The Chiefs are 24th in the league in time of possession by holding the ball 48.04 percent of the time this season.
Somehow someway this Patriots team continues to dominate their schedule and puts themselves in a position to do damage in the Playoffs every year. As of this week the Patriots own a two-game lead in the AFC East but they dropped the number one title in the AFc to the Ravens since they own the tie breaker. Despite what the media paints the Patriots are actually very good on the offensive side of the ball this season as they are 6th in the league with 26.8 points per game. New England is 14th in total offense as they average 360.8 yards per contest while ranking 23rd in yards per play as they pick up 5.1 yards per snap. The Patriots are solid defensively, ranking 1st in the league in scoring defense by allowing a paltry 12.1 points per contest. New England is 2nd in the league in total defense by allowing 258 yards per game and 2nd in yards per play by allowing only 4.5 yards per snap. In giveaway/takeaway, the Patriots are 1st with a +18 ratio this season. Their defense has been a strong suit and it will face one of their biggest test in this game. The Patriots have sputtered a bit in the red zone so far as they are 24th in the league in scoring touchdowns in the red zone as they convert only 48.98 percent of their chances. Defensively, New England has been sharp as they are eighth in red zone defense by allowing only 50 percent of drives to reach the red zone to end in touchdowns. The Patriots are in the middle of the pack in third down conversions, ranking 16th by converting 38.76 percent of their third down situations on the year. New England’s defense is currently 1st in those situations as they held the opposition to a meager 21.68 percent success rate on their third downs. The Patriots are 2nd in the league in time of possession by holding the ball 54.09 percent of the time this season.
Run Game: New England has allowed just five opponents to run for at least 100 yards in their 12 games this season. They have had their struggles of late however. In the last five games, the Patriots have given up a trio of 100-yard games, including a season-worst 210 yards against the Ravens in week nine. Two weeks against the Cowboys, New England gave up 26 carries for 109 yards on the ground. Last week against Houston, the Patriots held the Texans to 23 carries for just 52 yards. The Chiefs don't have a solid ground game at the moment. As LeSean McCoy, in his first season with the team, leads the team with 84 carries for 410 yards plus four scores on the year. Damien Williams has 83 carries but has totaled only 309 yards plus a score. He's missed a couple games already this season with a knee injury. I give the advantage to the Patriots here. Their defense can stop the run against teams that are not big on establishing the run.
This is where the needle turns to the Chiefs for me. Mahomes is a superior talent to Tom Brady (although Brady is the GOAT) at this stage in their careers. Mahomes also has the better weapons around him. Brady has been visibly frustrated with his receivers all year and there is nothing to say that is going to change here. The only thing keeping this somewhat of a close call is the Patriots pass D. Gilmore is a stud and shuts down whoever he is on. The Patriots didn’t allow a touchdown pass until week six against the Giants and have allowed more than one scoring pass in a game just once all year. New England has held seven opponents under 200 yards through the air and haven’t given up more than 280 yards in a game this season. The Patriots had held five straight opponents under 200 yards through the air in weeks five through nine. New England had arguably their worst game against the pass last season, giving up 240 yards and four scores through the air. That TD pass total matched what they had allowed in the first 11 games of the season. Still this Chief pass attack is elite and they create mismatches at every level.
New England has had terrible luck with their Kicking position this year. A number of injuries have taken place but they never fail to miss a step. The Patriots have always had a good special teams unit and they should play well tonight. I do like the Kicker for the Chiefs. He kicks in bad conditions in Kansas City so kicking in this one shouldn't be an issue for them. I think this match up is a wash.
According to Covers.com, the Patriots are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 0.5-3.0 points, 22-6 ATS in their last 28 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Kansas City has gone 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win
I like getting Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs a field goal here. I think they win this game outright as the Patriots are showing glaring weaknesses in their game. Mahomes should shred this defense as they break down late in the game and I think he outduels Brady in New England for the upset. The +3 points are insurance against the GOATS Chiefs +3:
Didn't have a wager for this game but robot refs would be better than what I'm witnessing every week with this horrendous officiating. Kelce fumbled and NE could have ran that back but these rookie officials blow the whistle. What a pathetic performance by these refs once again.
As long as the Chiefs can get some pressure on Tom Brady, Id give the edge to Patrick Mahomes. So normally, everything would point to a game decided by a field goal. The Chiefs have Harrison Butker. The Patriots have... well, nobody and the Pats just lost to a bad Houston Texans team. Hard to bet on Pats losing 2 in a row, but I see this game as going either way so I want the points in my pocket.
New England's WR Mohamed Sanu - Should be good to go Sunday
Sanu (ankle), who is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Chiefs, is expected to play, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports. ANALYSIS As anticipated, Sanu is expected to play through the ankle issue for the second consecutive contest, though the extent of his role in the Patriots' game plan is more of a mystery. After sitting out the Week 12 win over Dallas, Sanu returned to play only 22 percent of the offensive snaps in the Week 13 loss to the Texans. Sanu didn't practice on anything more than a limited basis this week, making it difficult to project just how much of an increase in snaps he'll receive.
New England's WR Julian Edelman - On track to play
Edelman (shoulder), who is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Chiefs, is expected to play, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports. ANALYSIS Edelman has been a mainstay on the Patriots' injury reports throughout 2019 and is being listed as questionable for the ninth time this season, but like the previous eight occasions, there's no real concern about his availability for gameday. The standout slot man has played no fewer than 89 percent of the offensive snaps and has drawn no fewer than 10 targets in any game since Week 5, so that's a reasonable baseline for what to expect from him in terms of both workload and usage Sunday
Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots Prediction and PreviewOur NFL experts predict, pick and preview the Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots game with kickoff time, TV channel and spread. https://athlonsports.com/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs-vs-new-england-patriots-prediction-picks-2019
The Gillette Stadium has an open roof so weather should be considered for today's game. It will be Mostly Clear with 28% cloud cover and a 0% chance for snow. The temperature is 31 with 64% humidity and winds at 7 mph SSW.
I think that, given that they played 3.5 games with a backup QB, and their pass defense is better than people realize, the public is underestimating the possibility of the Kansas City Chiefs beating, not just the Patriots but also the Ravens in the playoffs. The Pats haven't looked good on offense so Pats defense has all the pressure on their shoulders in this game. They have to be getting tired and this might be the biggest test yet.
Betting Prediction for Kansas City Chiefs vs New England Patriots on December 08, 2019, 4:25 PM ET
Free Betting Prediction: The teams will Push ATS , and the Total will go Under .
Week 14 features a rematch of last year's AFC championship game, which produced 68 points and went to overtime. With New England all about defense this year and the Chiefs not quite as high-scoring as last season, a high total of 48.5 points looks ripe for the UNDER. Original matchup: http://bit.ly/35NPVwz