Baylor vs Iowa St. Picks

Sat Sep 24 12:00PM
31
Final
24
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BAYLOR710773145
IOWAST7701024-2.5

Baylor Bears vs Iowa St. Cyclones Recap for September 24th, 2022, 12:00PM ET

Baylor is playing Iowa St. at the Jack Trice Stadium stadium on Saturday, 9/24/2022 @ 12:00pm EST. Iowa St. -1 was the opening favorite and line hasn't moved.

While the Bears have won two of the last three meetings in this series, they will be road underdogs this weekend as they try to win their first game in Ames since 2016. As Dave Aranda and Matt Campbell both have their programs playing some of the best defenses in recent years, one should expect a healthy dose of defense in this matchup.

When Baylor Has the Ball

With Richard Reese rushing for five touchdowns in the first three games of the season, Baylor is looking to establish a rhythm on the ground. Keeping that kind of production going against Iowa State will be challenging, but it has been a formula for success for the Bears. Once the offense gets into the red zone, the real chess match begins. The Cyclones boast the second-best red-zone defense in the Big 12 and Baylor has the third-best red-zone touchdown percentage (83.3).

In fact, Iowa State owns the top-rated defense among its conference mates, giving up just 234.3 yards per game and 4.04 yards per play early on. Furthermore, the Cyclones haven't given up many points either, holding Southeast Missouri State, Iowa, and Ohio to 27 points each. With 25 combined tackles, O'Rien Vance and Colby Reeder have set the tone on that side of the ball.

When Iowa State Has the Ball

The Cyclones don't have the offensive weapons to blow a game wide open, so they will likely be content to grind out yards by any means necessary and hope it pays off in the end. Fortunately, that's exactly what it must do against a team like Baylor that can play a similar style. In spite of running 78 plays per game (25th in FBS), Iowa State has the eighth-best total offense in the Big 12 with 415 yards per game.

Despite 280 rushing yards and just one touchdown, Jerehl Brock leads the team and is fourth in the conference. Hunter Dekkers has completed 74.3% of his attempts and threw eight touchdown passes and three interceptions. Xavier Hutchinson has emerged as one of the most productive targets in the Big 12 so far with 315 receiving yards and five touchdowns.

The Cyclones will be facing the No. 3 defense in the conference. Baylor is allowing just 290.3 yards per game this season. The defense had a good rebound game last week against Texas State after struggling to slow down BYU. In the 42-7 home win over the Sun Belt Bobcats, the Bears held the Bobcats to 268 yards and only 3.8 per snap after yielding 366 yards and 5.7 per play on the road to the ranked Cougars.

The Baylor and Iowa State teams are redefining Big 12 football with hard-nosed defenses and grinding together drives. Don't expect plenty of offense or scoring in this game. The last two meetings in this series both scored in the 30s, so the possibility of a back-and-forth game is still there. It just seems unlikely. Among two fairly even programs, the home team has won the last four matchups, and that trend could continue this week.

Baylor vs Iowa St. Picks & Predictions:

  • From the lines set by Sportsbooks, they predict the score to be BAYLOR 23.25, IOWAST 21.25.
  • 53% of SportsJaw predicts Iowa St. Cyclones to cover.
  • OddsShark predicts Iowa State will win, cover the spread, and the total will go over.
  • 55% of Covers.com community pick Baylor +1.
  • Our ScoreCaster predicts Bears 21 to Cyclones 22.

Baylor is ranked #27 in offense, #43 in defense and are ( ATS) in their games. Iowa St. Cyclones are #95 for offense, #11 for defense and ( ATS) . Baylor went 1-2 (0-3 ATS) in their last 3 matchups against Iowa St..

Betting on Baylor Bears +1

  • 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Baylor's last 8 games.
  • 7-1 SU in their last 8 games.
  • 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against Iowa State.

Betting on Iowa St. Cyclones -1

  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Iowa State's last 6 games.
  • Iowa State are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games.
  • Iowa State are 6-0 SU in their last 6 games at home.
  • Iowa State are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games when playing at home against Baylor.

Check out the rest of the Baylor Bears vs Iowa St. Cyclones matchup page for community picks & predictions and more.

Written by SportsJaw Staff
Categorized as NCAAF Predictions

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6 LATEST CHATTER[ - ]

Social predictions and betting insights on the Baylor vs Iowa St. matchup.

Won 70% of last 10 NCAAF predictions

Everyone is riding Baylor here.. I just dont see it. This Iowa defense stops anything and everything in its path

My Baylor vs Iowa St. predictions

IOWAST -2.5 (-110)

Spread Pick

$500

Risk

$455

Win

U 45 (-110)

Total Pick

$500

Risk

$455

Win

Go bears

My Baylor vs Iowa St. predictions

BAYLOR +120

Moneyline Pick

$500

Risk

$600

Win

Trending Pick

I've been bullish on this Baylor team before the season kicked off and have a future on OVER 7.5 wins for the season, so I like the Bears until proven otherwise. You can argue Baylor didn't impress against BYU but they got things going last week against a decent Texas State team. Baylor got their run game going last week with true frosh RB running back Richard Reese who ran for 156 yards on 19 attempts (8.2 YPC. The Bears will need to keep the Cyclones under wraps as their passing game is good and they need to keep an eye on that Hutchinson fella. He’s pretty good.

The BYU loss was similar to a person’s first exam that hits like a truck, and this week is a chance to improve on former mistakes. This game will be a defensive battle much like the BYU game, keeping the score under the 30s. But Baylor offense line should control line of scrimmage and Baylor’s defense should do enough to get the W here. Wrong team favored by Vegas in this spot, I like Baylor ML here (but taking the points here for this pick) and going to sprinkle the UNDER 45.

My Baylor vs Iowa St. predictions

BAYLOR +2.5 (-110)

Spread Pick

$500

Risk

$455

Win

Won 80% of last 10 NCAAF predictions

I predict a lower scoring game as both teams are solid on the defensive side of the football and I believe of the defensive units will challenge these offenses significantly on Saturday. I watched all of that Baylor BYU game and after seeing BYU getting trounced by Oregon, I don't think BYU is a good team...who beat Baylor. Sets up to be a close game, but I’ll take Iowa State in a one-score game, so long as they don’t do anything to beat themselves. Lay the 2.5 points and let's get on the UNDER 45 as well.

My Baylor vs Iowa St. predictions

IOWAST -2.5 (-110)

Spread Pick

$100

Risk

$91

Win

U 45 (-110)

Total Pick

$100

Risk

$91

Win

Won 70% of last 10 NCAAF predictions

I like the under in this game. Both teams have solid defenses and neither have overwhelming offenses. I think Iowa St. focuses on establishing their ground game early and having long drives. Take the Under 45 in this one.

My Baylor vs Iowa St. predictions

U 45 (-110)

Total Pick

$100

Risk

$91

Win

Won 90% of last 10 NCAAF predictions

If Baylor had a decent kicker they would be 3-0 with two dominant wins over bad teams and a win over a top-25 team. Iowa State is 3-0, but their only power five win was against the Iowa Hawkeyes, who may be the worst offense in college football. I don’t think Baylor is elite, but they’re a good football team and one that has been tested slightly more than the Cyclones.The Bears racked up 293 rushing yards against Texas State while Iowa State was dominant on defense against Ohio, so I see this one being close. I like Baylor at least to cover and wouldn’t be at all surprised if they win this one outright.

Prediction: Baylor covers +3 as the underdog and controls the ground game.

My Baylor vs Iowa St. predictions

BAYLOR +3 (-110)

Spread Pick

$100

Risk

$91

Win

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