Baylor Bears vs Iowa St. Cyclones Recap for September 24th, 2022, 12:00PM ET
Baylor is playing Iowa St. at the Jack Trice Stadium stadium on Saturday, 9/24/2022 @ 12:00pm EST. Iowa St. -1 was the opening favorite and line hasn't moved.
While the Bears have won two of the last three meetings in this series, they will be road underdogs this weekend as they try to win their first game in Ames since 2016. As Dave Aranda and Matt Campbell both have their programs playing some of the best defenses in recent years, one should expect a healthy dose of defense in this matchup.
When Baylor Has the Ball
With Richard Reese rushing for five touchdowns in the first three games of the season, Baylor is looking to establish a rhythm on the ground. Keeping that kind of production going against Iowa State will be challenging, but it has been a formula for success for the Bears. Once the offense gets into the red zone, the real chess match begins. The Cyclones boast the second-best red-zone defense in the Big 12 and Baylor has the third-best red-zone touchdown percentage (83.3).
In fact, Iowa State owns the top-rated defense among its conference mates, giving up just 234.3 yards per game and 4.04 yards per play early on. Furthermore, the Cyclones haven't given up many points either, holding Southeast Missouri State, Iowa, and Ohio to 27 points each. With 25 combined tackles, O'Rien Vance and Colby Reeder have set the tone on that side of the ball.
When Iowa State Has the Ball
The Cyclones don't have the offensive weapons to blow a game wide open, so they will likely be content to grind out yards by any means necessary and hope it pays off in the end. Fortunately, that's exactly what it must do against a team like Baylor that can play a similar style. In spite of running 78 plays per game (25th in FBS), Iowa State has the eighth-best total offense in the Big 12 with 415 yards per game.
Despite 280 rushing yards and just one touchdown, Jerehl Brock leads the team and is fourth in the conference. Hunter Dekkers has completed 74.3% of his attempts and threw eight touchdown passes and three interceptions. Xavier Hutchinson has emerged as one of the most productive targets in the Big 12 so far with 315 receiving yards and five touchdowns.
The Cyclones will be facing the No. 3 defense in the conference. Baylor is allowing just 290.3 yards per game this season. The defense had a good rebound game last week against Texas State after struggling to slow down BYU. In the 42-7 home win over the Sun Belt Bobcats, the Bears held the Bobcats to 268 yards and only 3.8 per snap after yielding 366 yards and 5.7 per play on the road to the ranked Cougars.
The Baylor and Iowa State teams are redefining Big 12 football with hard-nosed defenses and grinding together drives. Don't expect plenty of offense or scoring in this game. The last two meetings in this series both scored in the 30s, so the possibility of a back-and-forth game is still there. It just seems unlikely. Among two fairly even programs, the home team has won the last four matchups, and that trend could continue this week.
Baylor vs Iowa St. Picks & Predictions:
- From the lines set by Sportsbooks, they predict the score to be BAYLOR 23.25, IOWAST 21.25.
- 53% of SportsJaw predicts Iowa St. Cyclones to cover.
- OddsShark predicts Iowa State will win, cover the spread, and the total will go over.
- 55% of Covers.com community pick Baylor +1.
- Our ScoreCaster predicts Bears 21 to Cyclones 22.
Baylor is ranked #27 in offense, #43 in defense and are ( ATS) in their games. Iowa St. Cyclones are #95 for offense, #11 for defense and ( ATS) . Baylor went 1-2 (0-3 ATS) in their last 3 matchups against Iowa St..
Betting on Baylor Bears +1
- 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Baylor's last 8 games.
- 7-1 SU in their last 8 games.
- 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against Iowa State.
Betting on Iowa St. Cyclones -1
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Iowa State's last 6 games.
- Iowa State are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games.
- Iowa State are 6-0 SU in their last 6 games at home.
- Iowa State are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games when playing at home against Baylor.
Check out the rest of the Baylor Bears vs Iowa St. Cyclones matchup page for community picks & predictions and more.
Written by SportsJaw Staff
Categorized as NCAAF Predictions