I love when the brewers face a southpaw and I feel their reputations as a team that "crushes" overshawdows the reality. They have some amazing left handed batters in Yelich, moustakus, grandal, and thames but these guys can't hit lefties yet alone good ones. Well Yelich can, but Moose's numbers are significantly worse and Thames won't even be in the LU against a pitcher like Corbin. Houser has looked okay and he's really coming around. He has SIERA of 3.82 this year with a strike out rate of 26% and a groundball rate of 55%. So this guy can get out of jams a lot of differnt ways and I think that bodes well for him. I like the under in this one because I like both these pitchers and I like u 4.5 for the F5
Love the Nats here and think -150 is good value considering the stats. Corbins form at home has been outstanding, going 6-1 with a 1.78 ERA in 11 starts, and six of the 15 runs he has given up at Nationals Park came in his lone loss back in late April. The southpaw is 5-0 with a 0.90 ERA in his last seven home starts and struck out 57 in 50 innings while holding opponents to a .181 batting average. its the opposite on the other end with Adrian Houser who is 0-3 with a 7.04 ERA in five road starts and is failing to last more than five innings in all of them. Milwaukee in general scuffled in its last road trip, going 1-5 against Oakland the Cubs and was held to four or fewer runs in each contest. Plus the Brewers pen is in shambles. Nats ML is the play
Washington is coming into this series red-hot from a three-game home series sweep over the Cincinnati Reds. Corbin is a beast with a 1.71 ERA and a 6-1 record at Nationals Park this season. BUT at -150 odds, I think we are priced out on the Nats here and the betting value is with the Brewers +140. Houser hasn't been great on the road but he is better than his ERA and I think he gives the Brew Crew a legit shot to win this game. Don't love this game, but I'd lean taking the +140 odds with Milwaukee here.