swamipicks

UNDER 41 - Denver has the 23rd ranked offense and has only averaged 16.6 points over their last 3 games. Cleveland's offense should be slowed down tonight with missing 3 of their top offensive weapons. A bad offense + a hobbled offense + 2 good defenses = UNDER 41.

Minnesota -2

Bye week ahead, and Cook is likely back and there is nothing suggests Jefferson nor Thielen will miss. CAR played one decent QB and offense all season (Dallas) and were torched, will be tough vs MIN. Darnold vs MIN DEF a tough spot IMO. Lay em'.

Nick Chubb out "Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb won't play in Sunday's game against the Arizona Cardinals due to a calf injury, the team announced Friday, per ESPN's Jake Trotter."

I think this is a big blow to Browns run game and I like the Cards before this news. Lock up your Arizona +3.5.

Kentucky has a great ground attack, but Will Levis has averaged 128.3 passing yards through four SEC games. Georgia will dare him to throw the ball, and it won't end well. (The 'Cats might cover the 24-point spread, though.)

This is pretty much the game of the week IMO. I like this Kentucky team but a win over Georgia just ain't happening but 22.5 points just seems a bit heavy here based on Kentucky's resume.

Prediction: Georgia 31, Kentucky 13

Could the Boilermakers knock off the alleged second-best team in the country again? Considering they have scored 13 points in three straight game with a negative-six turnover margin, that seems highly unlikely.

An elite offense with a mediocre defense can probably beat Iowa, but this Hawkeyes defense was seemingly built in a lab to chew up and spit out mediocre offenses. They have forced 20 turnovers through six games and have yet to allow an opponent to score more than 20 points.

I'm betting on this Iowa defense this weekend, Hawkeyes by double digits and should bring home the cover for Iowa bettors.

Prediction: Iowa 27, Purdue 13

The Jaguars had lost seven consecutive games by double-digit margins before falling by a field goal to the Bengals. Between Jacksonville wide receiver DJ Chark Jr. now being out for the season and Titans wideouts A.J. Brown and/or Julio Jones perhaps returning, this seems like a no-brainer.

The Bengals haven't lost a game by more than three points this season.

Burrow and Co. already showed marked improvement over last year's squad. But I’ll lay the points with the Packers here, as the Bengals’ three victories have come against squads that share a combined record of 2-10 on the year. Burrow and company might be in for a rude awakening against Green Bay’s high-powered offense. I think this is a coin flip game so I want the 3 points in my pocket here.

Carolina comes into this game banked up on defense; they lost cornerback Jaycee Horn in Week 3 and linebacker Shaq Thompson in Week 4. The Panthers did trade for Stephon Gilmore on Wednesday, but he isn't eligible to return from injured reserve until Week 7. So Philly could be catching Carolina at the right time here. Philly is 0-3 straight-up and ATS over the last three weeks, but have shown signs of an improving offense and will take advantage of the Panthers short handed defense. I'll take the 3 points here in a game that could go either.

The Jets were outscored by 50 points in their first three games before their upset victory over the Titans last week.

Laying points with Atlanta feels like asking for trouble. The Jets are coming off their first win of 2021, and this game being in London adds a layer of uncertainty. But while the Falcons aren't good, they're still the better of these two teams. They also appear to have found something with Cordarrelle Patterson. I'm not ready to believe in the Jets just yet, getting ATL under a field goal here is the right side.

SMU's run defense is markedly better than in recent years, though, and goodness knows this Mustangs offense can score at least four touchdowns against anyone. I suspect quarterback Tanner Mordecai and Co. will have enough firepower to get this W. But it's going to come right down to the wire. I'm buying the hook here and taking Navy +14.

Prediction: SMU 31, Navy 28

Fresh off a 28-point loss to Air Force in which it allowed more than 400 yards of rushing, New Mexico now has the near-impossible task of trying to shut down a San Diego State offense that has rushed for at least 200 yards and multiple scores in each game this season.

The Lobos have also averaged just 212 yards of total offense and 7.7 points during their current three-game losing streak, so this one should be over by halftime. This game won't be close.

Prediction: San Diego State 42, New Mexico 13

Baylor has already exceeded expectations this season and now we've got two newly ranked and undefeated Big 12 teams squaring off in Stillwater.

Last week Baylor just barely held on to knock off Iowa State despite allowing nearly 200 more yards than it gained. Oklahoma State out-gained Kansas State by more than 200 yards and, with the exception of one KSU kick return for a touchdown, seemed to be in complete control throughout.

Oklahoma State entered Week 4 with a noteworthy road win over Boise State and a decent home win over Tulsa, too. Baylor was facing its first legitimate test of the season, and, again, wasn't all that impressive considering their offensive production.

In the end, I think Baylor is the least tested team here and my gut says Oklahoma State should win this game. This spread feels about right so not a ton of value here, but slight lean on OK State at home.

Prediction: Oklahoma State 30, Baylor 24

With USC and Utah stumbling, it's still way too early to declare this the de facto Pac-12 South championship, but it does feel like that.

Both Arizona State and UCLA have been fantastic on the ground and good enough through the air. The Bruins have averaged 200 rushing yards and 2.8 rushing touchdowns per game while the Sun Devils are sitting at 210 and 3.8, respectively. They have also both done a solid job of defending the run, though UCLA's numbers (2.4 YPC, 64.0 YPG) have been considerably more impressive than Arizona State's (3.5 YPC, 123.3 YPG).

Where Arizona State could have a huge advantage, however, is with its passing game. The Sun Devils haven't thrown a ton, but Jayden Daniels is completing nearly 73 percent of his pass attempts and UCLA's secondary (330.3 passing yards allowed per game) ranks among the worst in the nation while Arizona State (124.3 yards per game) has been darn near impenetrable.

Maybe Dorian Thompson-Robinson works some magic for a few home-run plays, but I like Arizona State in a slight upset on the road.

Prediction: Arizona State 34, UCLA 30

Most of the talking heads are on New England this week and I think I'll follow. Famous Jameis Winston and the Saints offense looked lost against the Panthers and things won't get any easier against a New England defense that had a field day against rookie Zach Wilson. While Mac Jones is taking the definition of 'game manager' to a new level, he doesn't need to do much more. The Patriots ground attack and short-area passing will be enough to get the win and cover here.

We know it's hard to bet against Patrick Mahomes, especially when he and his Super Bowl-caliber team will likely be fired up coming off a tough loss. K.C. won't mess around while looking 1-2 in the eye, and the Chiefs are laying less than a touchdown at home against the Los Angeles Chargers.

However, it's worth noting that even the mighty Chiefs are just 2-11 against the spread in their last 13 games dating back to last November, and they've failed to cover in four of their last five matchups with the increasingly strong Chargers. Plus the Chiefs defense has struggle to stop the run this year in a big way.

It's a scary proposition fading the Chiefs but I think it's the right side heree as Justin Herbert and Co. are pretty darn dangerous themselves. Give me the 7 points in my pocket in a game that the Chargers could surprise.

I'm a bit perplexed that this high-flying Arizona Cardinals team are laying just seven points this week against a Jacksonville Jaguars squad that has been outscored by double-digit margins in each of its first two games.

Kyler Murray is off to an MVP-level start through two weeks, and it won't slow down this week facing the lowly Jaguars, who have had about as disastrous of a start as could have been imagined under first-year head coach Urban Meyer. The Jags gave up 449 yards to Tyrod Taylor and the Texans and then followed it up by allowing 398 yards to Teddy Bridgewater and the Denver Broncos. Kyler Murray and this Cardinal offense are dangerous and should be able to light up the Jags defense. This might be a bit of a homer pick but I like the Cards to win big here.

Few ACC offenses can keep up with the Cavaliers and Brennan Armstrong, who is throwing for 432.7 yards per game, but the Demon Deacons are one of them. Wake averages more than 39 points, and Virginia’s defense inspires little confidence after surrendering 59 to North Carolina last week. Virginia beat up Illinois but we are finding out Illini aren't good this year. Give me the free points here in a game Wake can win outright.

Last fall, these teams were both 1-3 when they played a triple-overtime game in which it felt like neither side wanted to win. Fast forward ten months later and one of these teams is going to enter October with a 4-0 record.

Should be a great matchup of offense vs defense as Michigan has rushed for at least 335 yards and three touchdowns in each of its three victories while Rutgers has held each of its first three opponents to 261 total yards or fewer.

At the end of the day I just think Michigan's play seems more legitimate than that of Rutgers, as the Wolverines have also been outstanding on defense. Plus Michigan has a handful of blue chip players and Rutgers not so much. But that perception might largely be a product of so many consecutive years of watching the Scarlet Knights struggle.

If Rutgers couldn't even manage 200 yards of total offense in the win at Syracuse, it's hard to believe this team will be able to keep pace with Blake Corum, Hassan Haskins and the Michigan rushing attack. But Michigan is banged up on defensive side and will be without 1 defensive lineman and 2 starting defensive backs and that should be a concern for Michigan bettors...but Michigan's offense should still do enough to easily win this game but 20.5 is a thick spread against a stiff Rutgers defense and the injuries to Michigan's defense has me taking the points- I'm buying the hook here and taking Rutgers +21 (-120).

Prediction: Michigan 35, Rutgers 21

***MNF PROP LOCKS*** 👀

D’ANDRE SWIFT OVER 39.5 RUSHING YARDS - Swift is fresh off 100 yards from scrimmage in Week 1 and in his four starts last season (13 games played) Swift averaged 61.75 yards rushing per game, and he was one of the few bright spots for Detroit in a blowout loss last week against San Francisco. The lack of receiver depth indicates a heavy workload for him tonight, so Swift is in a great position to go over 39.5 (-120) yards tonight .

🔨💰5 UNITS 🔒LOCK IT UP!

DAVANTE ADAMS OVER 86.5 RECEIVING YARDS - Coming off a subpar performance of five receptions for 56 yards against the Saints‘ secondary in Week 1, Adams has a significant matchup upgrade this week against the Lions. Adams should be salivating to face off against AJ Parker (66.3 coverage grade in Week 1) and Amani Oruwariye (38.1), among others.

2 UNITS 🔒LOCK IT UP!

Really 13 points? It's the first time the Browns have been favored by a dozen or more points since 1995. Then again, the Texans were a mess entering this season and nobody wants to read too much into a home blowout victory over a Jacksonville Jaguars squad riding a 16-game losing streak.

This is a ton of points for a Texans team that showed they have no intention of laying over this season. Tyrod Taylor and the ragtag group of Texans looked pretty sharp in week 1 and I'm telling you right now not to sleep on Tyrod Taylor. Also I think the Texans commitment to the ground game should prevent this one from getting completely out of hand. On top of that, the Tyrod Taylor to Brandin Cooks connection might be one of the most underrated in the NFL.

Also, Cleveland's pretty banged up coming off a tough loss, and Houston is a little scary with nothing much to lose right now. I'm not putting Cleveland on upset alert but I do love the boat load of points here.

Predictions: Browns 30, Texans 21

The Chicago secondary looked highly vulnerable Sunday night against the Rams, and the Bengals have the passing game weaponry to take advantage of that. The Bengals are headed to 2-0, Nagy's chair is about to hit about 375 degrees.

The Bears offensive line is in rough shape, and they allowed Matthew Stafford to post a near-perfect passer rating Sunday night. Burrows and the Bengals should pick up the W here today.

Prediction: Bengals 27, Bears 23

Jameis Winston isn't going to be perfect every week. But he's in a position to be while playing behind one of the game's best offensive lines. The Panthers built a promising and talented front seven. However, New Orleans' offensive front can negate Carolina's biggest strength. Furthermore, the Saints have the ability to pressure Sam Darnold behind his suspect front five. Of the two questionable quarterbacks, Winston is clearly in a better position to continue his success here today against an undermanned Panthers team. Besides, maybe the Saints really are as good as the team that just stomped a mudhole in the Green Bay Packers.

Predictions: Saints 27- Panthers 21

The Eagles are not going to open the season 0-3. And they're certainly not going to do it by losing to the Bengals. And even though Cincinnati may not be as bad as it was last season, Philadelphia should still win this home matchup by at least a touchdown. Philadelphia comes into this game relatively healthy, and running back Miles Sanders had a strong season debut last week against the Rams and should be poised to have a 100+ yard day against 49ers defense today.

Prediction: Philadelphia +3

It really sucks that Kansas State quarterback Skylar Thompson suffered yet another injury this past weekend. The Wildcats were never the same after losing him to a shoulder injury three games into last season, and though they're hopeful his knee injury won't be season-ending, he seems unlikely to play in this game. In that case, Nevada and Carson Strong will have a huge advantage in the passing game. Strong threw for more than 300 yards against a respectable Cal defense and went for nearly 400 yards and four touchdowns in the rout of Idaho State. Running back Deuce Vaughn should keep Kansas State close, but I like the Wolf Pack in what should be a great game.

Prediction: Nevada 35, Kansas State 30

Utah lost the battle in the trenches in its 26-17 loss to BYU on Saturday night. Charlie Brewer never looked great and the Utes defense were unable to record a single sack. I think this one could be a similar story. San Diego State was eighth in the nation in tackles for loss per game in 2020 and is tied for third in that category this year. The Aztecs will bring a lot of pressure, while quarterback Jordon Brookshire has enough mobility to evade Utah's pass rush. I think the Aztecs keep this close and cover.

Prediction: San Diego State 24 - Utah 31

BYU is systemically breaking the Pac-12. The Cougars already won games against Arizona and Utah, they have a big game against Arizona State this weekend and they'll draw Washington State and USC later on. If they end up going 5-0 in those games, can they please play Oregon for the Pac-12 championship?

Before they can go 5-0, though, they need to get to 3-0, and that means stifling a lethal Sun Devils rushing attack. And considering Utah just averaged 7.7 yards per carry against the Cougars, that's going to be a stiff challenge.

Arizona State averaged 264.3 rushing yards per game, 6.4 yards per carry and 4.0 touchdowns per game in 2020, and, if anything, that four-pronged run game might be even better this year. Rachaad White, Jayden Daniels, Daniyel Ngata and DeaMonte Trayanum are each averaging better than 50 yards per game, though Trayanum did miss the Week 2 game with an undisclosed injury.

And while the ground game is thriving, Daniels is finding his targets in the passing game for a change. He had a career completion percentage of just 60.2 heading into this season, but he's at 73.2 thus far in 2021.

Quiet frankly I think BYU was lucky to beat Utah last week as the Utes didn't play a very good game and BYU is walking into a buzzsaw against ASU this weekend. Arizona State's early competition hasn't been anything worth writing home about, but this is where the Sun Devils assert themselves as the second-best team in the Pac-12.

Prediction: Arizona State 31, BYU 23

Arkansas has dominated with its ground game thus far in 2021, averaging 6.4 yards per carry and 4.0 touchdowns per game and the Hogs rushed for 340 yards against Texas. But this figures to be a game where the Razorbacks look to instill a little confidence in quarterback K.J. Jefferson, because Georgia Southern's secondary was shredded for more than 330 yards and four touchdowns by each of Gardner-Webb and Florida Atlantic.

This could be a let down spot for Arkansas after the big win over Texas but I think the Razorbacks should roll on Saturday against a pre week Georgia Southern team.

Prediction: Arkansas 42, Georgia Southern 13

Virginia throttled Illinois 42-14 in week 2 and I should know because I bet on Illinois in that game. UVA's offense has looked great so far this season,

However, playing on the road against North Carolina will be a significant increase in difficulty, as the Tar Heels have held each of their first two opponents below 300 yards of total offense. And after a painfully slow start in the opener against Virginia Tech, they found a lot of things that worked on offense in a 59-17 rout of Georgia State.

I think UNC is the better team here and should be favored but 7.5 points feels a bit heavy in what should be a very competitive game. Virginia has beat North Carolina the last 4 years and the Cavaliers could surprise here and make it 5 in a row.

Prediction: North Carolina 31, Virginia 27

D'Eriq King has just one passing touchdown and no rushing touchdowns thus far in 2021, so he can kiss the Heisman goodbye. Michigan State's defense hasn't been very good this season as we sawNorthwestern throw for 283 yards against the Spartans, so this could be a game where D'Eriq King finally gets loose and puts up some solid numbers.

Michigan State's run game has been outstanding through two games and should be able to keep up offensively in this game. Bottomline for me is I don't trust D'Eriq King with my money and sure not going to lay 6 points to this Miami offense. I think it's a close game and I want the 6 points in my pocket.

Prediction: Miami 31, Michigan State 27

I don't have any more faith in the Giants' offense (or Daniel Jones) than I do WFT's offense (or QB Heinicke), and I do think Washington's defense is the best unit that will be in this game. That's enough for me to take Washington in what I think will be low scoring.

Prediction: Washinton 20- Giants 13