Utah suffered defeats to BYU and San Diego State not only because of QB play but largely because it lost the battle at the line of scrimmage. Both the Cougars and the Aztecs rushed for more than 200 yards against the Utes, and Utah had a difficult time running against SDSU's front seven (31 carries for 70 yards).
Things have looked much better for Utah in recent wins over Washington State and USC, in which the Utes rushed for nearly 400 combined yards while limiting those opponents to a combined total of 162.
Whether it was an improvement in the trenches or a product of facing back-to-back opponents who neither run nor defend the run well will be put to the test by an Arizona State team that has dominated at the point of attack. The Sun Devils offense has 21 rushing touchdowns, and their defense has racked up 21 sacks.
Cameron Rising has been solid since taking over at quarterback for the Utes, but he would need to be extra special for them to pull off the upset. Give me Rachaad White, Jayden Daniels and Co. to run away with first place in the Pac-12 South. I like ASU to do just enough against a Utah team that is free falling right now and doesn't have a true QB1.
Baylor QB Bohanon was on point in the Week 4 win over Iowa State with three total touchdowns, and he shredded West Virginia's defense for five scores in a 45-20 win last weekend. This Baylor team is the surprise of the Big 12 this year. The question is can he keep that going against a BYU defense that has allowed four passing touchdowns against six interceptions?
Of equal importance, can BYU recover from the loss to Boise State in which it had a negative-four turnover margin?
Prior to Week 6, BYU had only turned the ball over twice and won the turnover battle (and the game) in all five contests. When the Cougars were plus-one in turnover margin, they won by one score. When they were plus-two, they won by two scores. So if Bohanon remains calm, cool and collected with no giveaways, I like Baylor in this one.
I don't think the Cowboys will have a defensive answer for Justin Herbert and the Chargers offense, plus the Cowboys will be without Michael Gallup or DeMarcus Lawrence (foot) or La'el Collins (suspension). Give me the healthier Chargers team here at home.
The Miners opened up as an 8.5-point road favorite but this line has ran up to UTEP -10 as the sharps are pounding the Miners. UTEP was a young team last year and were not competitive, but there is reason for hope this season. Gavin Hardison will be starting at QB this season and he has a big arm and has plenty of weapons at wild receiver and also returning their entire offensive line with a very solid running back group.
New Mexico State is going to have a long season this year. With very little experience on both sides of the ball and a whole lot of uncertainty, the Aggies biggest problem is that 6 starters on defense transferred at the end of 2019 season and the Aggies didn’t play a single game in 2020 due to cancelling season due to COVID.
This line has ran up for a reason and I suspect it could push past -10 before kick. Get your UTEP -10 in now and also like this UNDER of 59 because I don’t see NM State scoring more than 10 points with all their question marks on offense. Best of Luck!
The Aggies continue to improve their defense, and that will be the difference when they take on Auburn. Quarterback Bo Nix has not shown the ability to be a consistently accurate quarterback, and it will cost Auburn as the Aggies will force two interceptions while harassing Nix for much of the game.
Texas A&M's rushing attack will be the biggest difference between the two teams. The Aggies offensive line will open holes for running back Isaiah Spiller to the tune of 120 yards rushing and two scores. That will allow quarterback Kellen Mond to rebound from a subpar game against LSU with 200 yards passing and a touchdown.
Iâ€™ll give Texas State credit for the way they played earlier in the season against good teams like SMU and Boston College and even in their last game against Georgia Southern. The problem is that the Bobcats just arenâ€™t a good football team and are getting blown past more often than not this season. Arkansas State doesnâ€™t play a lick of defense, but the best defense for the Red Wolves is a good offense and Iâ€™m just worried that Texas State wonâ€™t have the horses to keep up here. I like Arkansas State in a high scoring game.
Georgia Southern has played a more difficult schedule to date, but that has also resulted in many close, hard-fought matchups decided in the final minutes. Its reasonable to expect another this week. But the Eagles have also suffered some significant injuries in recent weeks (in addition to various nicks and bruises Werts has picked up along the way) while Army is getting healthier and Andersons return provides a huge boost to consistency. Given that trend, and the home-field advantage, expect the Black Knights to pick up a close victory. Prediction: Army 28, Georgia Southern 23
Oklahoma has been bitten by the injury bug, the Sooners are depleted at LB and lost their best corner to a knee injury. Texas has had their share of injuries as well but they are the deeper team on defense. Give me Sr. Sam Ehlinger over redshirt Freshman Spencer Ratter.
Pomeranz is one of those guys that I think is much better than his ERA and Greinke has allowed nine runs over his last two starts (13 innings), but I simple have no faith in the Giants offense right now. I will reluctantly take D-backs -133 here today. The Over 7.5 is worth a look as well.
Since a bad start mid-May, deGrom has been cruising along well, with a total of eight earned runs across his last five starts. As for Teheran, he hasnâ€™t given up more than one earned run in any of his last eight starts and will provide a great counterpoint here. Iâ€™m going with the better offense and the better pitcher at home - Braves +105 in a low-scoring game.
Keller hasn't looked good in his last 2 starts and this is his first start this season at PNC Park and will be facing a Tigers team even worse off offensively than the Reds. The Tigers are the worst run-scoring offense in the league, and they are second-worst in on-base percentage, which means they probably wonâ€™t have a lot of opportunities to score runs. Norris is also in no position to bail them out as the 26-year-old lefty has been getting lit up like a Christmas tree. This should be an offensive shootout and surprised the O/U is only 8.5. I think this one hits double digits tonight.
Matz had a rough outing in his last start against Arizona giving up 5 earned in 6 innings. Gray has been slightly better than Matz this season but the difference for me are the live bats for the Rockies who currently own the 3rd best offense in MLB. I like the plus money with the hotter Rockies team today.
The Angels have been playing in a ton of high scoring games recently, and the over is 6-1-1 in their last eight games. Cahill is terrible and even worse on the road, and the over is 7-0-1 in his last eight outings. The oddsmakers tend to overvalue Lester a little bit when setting the total, and the over is 7-3 in his last ten starts. With Bedrosian starting and the fact that Lester has been roughed up in his last 3 starts, I love the OVER 9 here today.
Miller hasnâ€™t been good this year, but he has been consistent. In four of his last five starts, Miller has allowed four earned runs (three in the other one) and at least two walks in all of them. As for Kingham, heâ€™s has given up seven earned over his last 6.1 innings. Both to these starters have Christmas tree potential and with the O/U set at 9, I'll take OVER 9 here today.
Both starters in this matchup struggled in their last outings and Miller will get hit hard. And the way Texas is swinging the bats I suspect they get to Kingham as well. Lock this in at 9.5 because it will probably move to 10.
Novaâ€™s numbers this year are skewed by one bad start, during which he put up seven earned on seven hits in 2.1 innings. Aside from that, in Novaâ€™s other two outings heâ€™s allowed just two earned across 13.0 innings on 10 hits with one tough-luck lossâ€”not too shabby. I like Nova but worry about the Sox offense - Give me Sox and UNDER 8.5
The Boston Celtics won game one by double digits, and that was with them shooting a brutal 36.4 percent from the field. I expect even a better shooting performance from the Celtics this time around on their home court. The Pacers just don't have enough consistent offense to be much of a threat in this series, lay the points.
Dallas is on a heater, 4-1 in their last 5, and feeling good after beating Houston. Lakers playing mediocre and struggling to find their form on offense, plus all of Lakers wins this year have been by by close margins, their offense isn't good enough to blow people out. I like the Mavericks +4 in a sneaky pick here tonight.
***LOS ANGELES +150*** Give me Kershaw tonight, Chris Sale reportedly isn't 100%, he has been experiencing shoulder problems and just got out of the hospital for stomach problems 10 days ago. In his last start against the Stro's he was in grind it out mode and fast ball was around 90-92mpg. Too many question marks around Sale tonight to lay -180, give me Kershaw all day at these prices.
The Yankees didnâ€™t play their best ball last night and still came within one run of pulling off an epic comeback against the Rays. Even with the playoffs around the corner, the Yankees appear focused on finishing out the rest of the season strong. New comer Jaime Schultz is scheduled to start for Tampa Bay and will be going against the murdererâ€™s row of Yankees offense. As for the Ray's offense, they rank in the bottom-half of the league in batting. Sabathia wonâ€™t have to be perfect to give the Yankees a great shot at closing out the series, but he will need to avoid an early meltdown like the one Tanaka had last night. All in all you have to like the Yankees here at even money with Sabathia on the mound.
Cody Reed has been lights out for Cinci. KC's starter Fillmyer coming off a quality start, giving up only 2 runs in 7 full innings. I think Cinci wins a 5-2 type of game. I like the UNDER 9 in this one tonight.